News
The enormous task ahead: Post-Ditwah recovery with foreign assistance
View(s):The devastation by cyclone Ditwah is far more extensive than estimated earlier. Agriculture, industry, tourism, transport and many services have been severely disrupted. The tasks of rescue, relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction are enormous.
Response
The response of our people to assist in the rescue and rehabilitation has been exemplary. Foreign assistance too has been coming in many forms since the disaster struck. They have sent in rescue teams, helicopters, medical supplies, medical personnel, food and financial aid, which have been of immense benefit.
Foreign Aid
Financial aid from friendly countries and international institutions will boost the declining reserves due to increased imports, lower exports and decreased earnings from tourism. The loss in production of goods and services is much more than was expected earlier.
Agricultural production
The loss in agricultural produce poses a significant problem. More than 530,000 hectares of paddy land were flooded, with Dimbulagala being the most affected at nearly 23,000 hectares. Other heavily impacted areas include Welikanda, Medirigiriya, Horowpathana, and Dehiattakandiya. The poultry industry has been decimated, and eggs would be in short supply.
Paddy
It is yet uncertain whether another sowing of the Maha crop is feasible. The reduction in vegetable and tea production is, however, less than expected, but the reconstruction of roads and dwellings is massive and onerous.
Industries
Industrialists have reported losses across 138 large-scale industries, 718 medium-scale industries, 1,134 small-scale industries, 1,009 micro-scale industries, and 285 export-oriented industries. The Gampaha District was the worst affected. The final figure of industrial damage is likely to be larger. This is a huge setback to the economy.
The rebuilding of the country’s manufacturing capacity will be a formidable endeavour. The damage and destruction caused by Cyclone Ditwah is more extensive than thought of earlier. It is estimated to have inundated 1.1 million hectares, or about 20 per cent of the country’s land area, and exposed 2.3 million people to flooding, according to UNDP’s geospatial analysis. The cyclone also triggered nearly 1,200 landslides across the hill country, blocking access to Kandy and Nuwara Eliya, besides causing deaths and destroying buildings and houses and impeding access and slowing rescue operations.
The UNDP’s integrated analysis shows that the greatest early recovery needs are in areas where flooding and landslides converge with pre-existing socioeconomic vulnerability.
Divisional Secretariats such as Mundel and Arachchikattuwa in Puttalam, Kandavalai in Kilinochchi, and several areas in the central highlands face overlapping pressures from damaged homes, disrupted livelihoods, and reduced access to basic services.
There is an urgent need to restore affected communities’ basic incomes and livelihoods.
Country-wide
The severity of the floods varied across the country. The largest inundation was in Dimbulagala in the Polonnaruwa district, with more than 23,000 hectares submerged. Significant flooding also occurred in Kandavalai in Kilinochchi, Maritimepattu in Mullaitivu, and in Welikanda and Medirigiriya in Polonnaruwa. In the districts of Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Kegalle, intense rainfall produced localised slope failures rather than large floodplains.
University flooded
The campus of the University of Peradeniya was flooded. Several of its halls and research facilities were inundated. Ududumbara in the Kandy District recorded the highest number of landslides at 135, while Laggala, Kothmale East, Lunugala, and Passara all registered a large number of catastrophes.
Magnitude
These figures give an idea of the magnitude of the damage and destruction caused by the cyclone. The economic costs of reconstruction are enormous. The exposed population includes roughly 1.2 million women, 522,000 children and youth, and 263,000 elderly persons.
In the Colombo District, the Kolonnawa area was the worst hit, with over 150,000 people being affected. In the Gampaha district, Wattala, Kelaniya, and Dehiowita are among the few divisional secretariats where more than half the population was affected, underscoring the scale of recovery challenges in densely populated low-lying settlements.
Foreign assistance
Foreign assistance in many forms is essential. Helicopters and rescue personnel, medicines and medical personnel, and engineers and technicians to repair roads and rail tracks are needed. The efforts of fellow Sri Lankans financially, with needed food and clothing, and physically are admirable. In as much as the tasks of rescue, relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction are enormous, the response of our people to assist in these tasks has been exemplary.
External Reserves
The financial aid from friendly countries and institutions will boost the declining reserves.
The gross external reserves of the country that increased to US$ 6.2 billion at the end of October fell to US$ 6 billion at the end of November. They are expected to dip further by the end of December owing to the widening of the trade deficit and lower earnings from tourism. Foreign assistance would contribute to the country’s capacity to meet the increase in imports necessitated by the floods, lower exports and lower tourist earnings that are likely in December and January.
Imports of food and other essentials are also likely to increase. Fortunately, worker remittances, contributions from the diaspora and foreign assistance are likely to boost the reserves to reach a higher level by the end of the year. These are expected to enhance the foreign reserves by over US$ 1 billion. However, a high proportion of these inflows are expected to be spent on imports necessitated by the floods. Gross foreign reserves are likely to reach about US$ 7.5 billion at the end of the year.
Trade deficit
This improvement in foreign reserves has been achieved in spite of the widening trade deficit. Increased remittances from abroad and higher earnings from tourism had boosted the foreign reserves. Inflows of aid from international organisations and friendly countries are likely to increase the reserves by the end of the year. The gross reserves include a currency swap of Chinese yuan equivalent to US$ 1500 that may prove useful in the emerging food shortages.
Comparison
Curiously, the tsunami that struck Sri Lanka in December 2004 was also at a time when the country’s foreign reserves were low. Nevertheless, we must be mindful of the increased import needs in the coming months for food and other essentials.
Foreign assistance
Foreign assistance has come in many useful forms besides finances. Rescue helicopters, food, medicines, tents, and medical aid have come from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Japan, the US, Canada, the UK, and the UAE, among other countries, and from international organisations like the ADB, the World Bank, and UNICEF. These have been invaluable.
International Monetary Fund
The IMF is expediting its next tranche and considering the request for an additional US$ 299 million of assistance from our quota with the IMF. This financial aid may exceed US$ 1 billion.
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