An unwinnable war!
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Uncertainty! That is the frightening scenario Sri Lanka and many countries are facing, this time unlike Sri Lanka’s 2022 economic meltdown, as no one can predict – apart from US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – when the war in West Asia will end.In 2022, Sri Lanka’s economy was shattered by mismanagement and delayed decisions which resulted in a shortage of dollars. There was enough fuel in the world but fuel ships were stationed outside the Colombo Port as the authorities scrambled for dollars to pay for the supply.
This time there is no shortage of foreign currency and the ability to pay for fuel supplies. The problem is a global one: Supply from West Asia has been affected due to the countries in that region being bombed by Iran which has also blocked a key shipping route – the Strait of Hormuz – in the Persian Gulf.
There is criticism that Sri Lankan authorities were slow in reacting to the build-up of tensions in West Asia and not preparing in advance to secure extra supplies of fuel. In fact, in its January Monetary Policy Review the Central Bank had warned of geopolitical tensions and though not specific – this was a reference to the turbulence in West Asia. The war has a wide-ranging impact on Sri Lanka – the economy, tourism, exports, imports and a possible reduction in foreign remittances as bank activity in West Asia has been restricted.
Ella – a popular mountain resort station – is deserted with a sharp drop in tourists adversely affecting the local economy. On the other hand, power cuts may be inevitable.
As I pondered over these issues, the home phone rang. It was Pedris Appo – short for Appuhamy, a retired agriculture expert who does farming. I was pleased to receive the call as Appo is a vociferous reader of West Asian politics and it would be useful to get his views. “Hi there……will this war end in the coming days or weeks,” I asked. “It’s anybody’s guess and depends on the mood of the US President who enjoys a game of golf while the world is burning owing to his irrational actions,” said Appo.
“The US President also gloated in public when he quoted his generals as saying that ‘it was fun’ destroying an Iranian ship. Destroying lives means nothing to them (Trump and his men),” I said. “The Sri Lankan government also seems to have been unprepared for such a crisis even though there were indications that things would get out of hand due to the uprising by the Iranian people in end-December 2025 and early January 2026,” he said.
While reams have been written about the conflict in West Asia and why it happened, there are no worthwhile predictions as to when it would end. Such is the uncertainty and Trump adds to the gloom – at one time saying the war will end soon, only to contradict his own statement later by saying “the war will continue as long as it’s necessary (for the Americans)”. Given this scenario, I thought of checking the ‘pulse’ of the trio during their regular Thursday ‘gossip’.
“Lankawey kattiyage meda peradiga rassawal nathi weida (I wonder whether Sri Lankans will lose jobs in the Middle East),” said Mabel Rasthiyadu. “Karanna puluwan ekama dey indana salakanaya, apey indana sapayuma araksha karanna (Fuel rationing seems to be the only option available to save our fuel supply),” added Serapina. “Prashna thibunoth meda peradiga inna lankawey kattiyata apahu lankawata mudal evanna, geval walata loku balapamak wenna yanney mokada geval randa pavathva ganney eh mudal walin-ney (If there is a problem of sending money home by Sri Lankans in the Middle East, that would have a huge impact on homes which depend on these remittances),” said Kussi Amma Sera. I was impressed by the views of the trio who were able to assess the dangers Sri Lanka is facing.
In an article titled, ‘The Iran war could trigger a global food crisis’, authors Bram Govaerts and Sharon Burke say that shockwaves are already coursing through global energy markets, but the most immediate and dangerous consequences of a prolonged closure may show up at the dinner table, not the gas pump. The Strait of Hormuz, after all, is not just a shipping lane for oil tankers; it is a critical artery of the global food system. Key food staples – including wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, sugar and animal feed – travel through the Strait on their way to the Gulf countries and farmers around the world depend on the fertilisers and fuel that flow out of it, they wrote.
The government seems to be listening to advice it has received from the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber, in its submission on March 11 to the government, had recommended a number of policy measures aimed at mitigating potential economic risks. These included prioritising the continuation of the IMF programme and the timely receipt of upcoming tranches, as well as the introduction of a more dynamic fuel pricing mechanism and the re-introduction of the QR system for fuel distribution.
Much of this has been done like fuel rationing via the QR code system and also permitting private local bunkering companies to be allowed to import fuel independently to feed export industries and tourism companies. During the 2022 economic crisis, the private sector was allowed to import fuel for strategic industries.
To help reduce fuel consumption while maintaining economic activity, the Chamber also suggested that public and private sector institutions consider flexible work arrangements, including work-from-home options where feasible.
Additionally, the government should consider bringing forward the closure of schools and universities ahead of the upcoming Avurudu holidays, while temporarily utilising online learning options where possible, the Chamber proposed.
It also recommended that non-essential foreign currency outflows be temporarily limited, while prioritising foreign exchange for critical imports such as fuel, food, pharmaceuticals and inputs required for export industries.
As the pundits predict, this is one war without an end in sight. The future is thus bleak and don’t be surprised if there are power cuts and food and fuel shortages!
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