Explosions in West Asia
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There was a buzz and palpable excitement in this leafy neighbourhood suburb. The talk of the town was on the conflict in the Middle East or West Asia (as we Sri Lankans like to call it). Aldoris, the choon-paan karaya, had stopped his pastry-laden tuk-tuk at the gate where the trio had gathered.“Meda peradiga inna apey sahodara sahodariyanta mokakda wenna yanney (What will happen to our brothers and sisters in the Middle East),” asked Aldoris.
“Api egollanta call dunna. Ethakota egollo kiwwa bomba watanawa ahuna kiyala saha anathuru angaweemey sirana thiyanawa kiyala (We have been calling them and they have heard bombs falling and sirens ringing warning of attacks),” said Kussi Amma Sera. “Magey balaporoththuwa bomba ehata mehata watunata, uddey lankawey weda karana kattiya inna palath walata no-ei kiyala (I hope the war – apart from a few bombs falling here and there – doesn’t come to the areas where Sri Lankans are working),” added Serapina.
“COVID ekata passey me arbudhaya nisa thama lankawey kattiyata gedera enna oney wela thiyenney (This is the second big event in the Middle East after the COVID-19 crisis when some of our
Sri Lankans wanted to return home),” noted Mabel Rasthiyadu.
Truth, they say, is the first casualty of war. And in this context, it is extremely difficult to independently verify claims made by the US and Iran. The latter says that dozens of schoolchildren were killed in one strike. The US claimed it’s only attacking military targets, not civilian ones.
Sri Lanka, unintentionally, has been dragged into the conflict after an Iranian warship, just outside Sri Lanka’s territorial waters, was attacked by a missile fired by a US submarine. The Sri Lanka navy was able to rescue 32 sailors, while dozens of bodies were floating in the sea. Sri Lanka responded in line with the international rules of engagement to save the sailors and take them to hospital.
As I ventured into further detail on the evolving conflict, the home phone rang. It was Arty, the intrepid entrepreneur, calling on this Thursday morning. “I wonder how the Sri Lankan missions in troubled areas are responding to the conflict,” he said. “Well, not as one would expect as they are often slow to react,” I said.
“Apart from that, the blow to the Sri Lankan economy would be huge,” he said. “Yes…..oil prices and shipping costs would rise while tourism would be affected as many Europeans use the three travel hubs – Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi – to fly to Sri Lanka,” I said.
It’s uncertain times for West Asia and in particular to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) which has been attracting billions of foreign capital and investment – as a safe investment base – in addition to hosting the world’s busiest airport (Dubai) and two other hubs – Doha and Abu Dhabi.
That premise of peace has now been shattered as Iran retaliates with strikes on US bases in the region with some bombs hitting civilian targets and triggering panic amongst the sizable foreign population. It’s interesting to see how the UAE and Dubai, in particular, would respond to this crisis where the dream of a desert oasis has been blown away.
With the general tendency to react, rather slowly, to international developments, we wanted to test the waters and ascertain whether Sri Lanka missions abroad were up to the task of meeting the needs and emergencies of Sri Lankans in the troubled region.
On Monday emails were sent to 13 Sri Lankan missions with the question: “Are any Sri Lankans residing in your country safe from possible attacks in view of the latest war situation in the Middle East?” The Cyprus mission responded within 30 minutes saying there were no specific threats, while responses were later received from Bahrain and Israel. The Kuwait mission directed us to the Sri Lanka Foreign Ministry for a response, while other missions didn’t respond or even acknowledge the email. The latter either didn’t read the mails or were lackadaisical in their approach.
It has been noticed that calls to Sri Lankan missions by Sri Lankans living in a respective country are not answered or take a long time to do so, such is the ‘efficiency’ of these missions. One Sri Lankan had to wait more than six months to get a new passport, while the websites of the mission say a new passport will be issued in eight to 12 weeks.
If Sri Lanka is to attract foreign capital, more tourists and develop more exports, these missions need a complete overhaul as they are working at cross purposes and not geared towards the forward policies of any government. The role of the trade envoy who must also be handling foreign investment needs to be strengthened with a private-sector-led approach. It is only if this important mission worker becomes private-sector-savvy that Sri Lanka’s goals can be reached. A public-sector-led approach won’t meet the aspirations of the Sri Lankan state.
The tourism front was in a chaotic situation in the early part of the week as all flights to and from Colombo to West Asian cities were cancelled, impacting travel across the region as West Asia is a key transit hub for Europe and North America. The local immigration office immediately provided a two-week visa extension to stranded visitors while many had to continue their stay in Sri Lanka. The worst affected were budget travellers and backpackers whose money was running out due to the extended stay. The situation eased at the end of the week as limited flights were operated to and from West Asian airports.
The biggest issue is uncertainty with reports emerging from the US – via statements from its leaders including Donald Trump – saying the war campaign against Iran will continue until “the desired object is achieved”. What this means in terms of duration, is anybody’s guess. It might turn out to be a long period of hostilities in West Asia.
What does it mean to other nations including Sri Lanka? The oil supply will be affected, tourism revenue will fall and result in a drop in tax revenue, shipping and travel insurance costs will rise, in addition to other uncertainties.
At the end of the day, the longer the US attacks Iran, the Iranian response in targeting US military interests in West Asia – and an occasional missile striking a civilian target – could be devastating to West Asia and all countries that rely on a regular and uninterrupted oil supply and also accident-free travel hubs of Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi used by much of the European tourist traffic to Asia. And we must not forget the fate of the nearly 1.5 million Sri Lankan workers in the strife-torn region!
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