Disasters are upending farming: Digital tools offer a path forward
Every planting season now begins with a question: What will the weather bring? For farmers, particularly smallholders, decisions made at planting determine livelihoods, but the results largely depend on weather conditions that are increasingly difficult to predict.
Across continents, farmers are learning that as weather patterns become more extreme, frequent, and unpredictable, stable seasonal patterns have given way to unpredictability and substantial losses and damages from disasters. This pattern of loss has broader consequences. When disaster risk is high, farmers rationally underinvest in their operations—buying fewer inputs, delaying improvements—which further constrains productivity and deepens vulnerability.
A recent assessment by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that disasters have caused US$ 3.26 trillion in agricultural losses globally since 1991 — about $ 99 billion each year. That figure captures more than lost crops and livestock products – it represents a deep and continuing strain on the people and systems that feed the world. Between 1991 and 2023, disasters caused staggering losses across agricultural sectors, with cereals hit hardest – an estimated 4.6 billion tonnes lost – followed by 2.8 billion tonnes of fruits, nuts and vegetables, reflecting high sensitivity to climate variability. Disasters have reduced the global food supply by an estimated 320 kilocalories per person per day which accounts for about 13-to-16 per cent of average daily energy needs.
The FAO findings also remind us that the impacts of disaster stretch well beyond immediate crop losses. When harvests fail, transport and credit systems are disrupted, and access to food declines. Fisheries face similar pressures. Marine heatwaves between 1985 and 2022 caused an additional $ 6.6 billion in losses, with 15 per cent of global fisheries affected. The real costs of disaster lies not only in currency but in the gradual weakening of systems that sustain rural economies and nutrition.
The losses span every region. Asia accounts for nearly half of global losses, reflecting its scale of production and exposure to floods, storms, and droughts. The Americas represent about a fifth, marked by recurring droughts and extreme heat. Africa’s absolute losses are smaller, but it endures the steepest proportional impact — around 7.4 per cent of agricultural GDP.
Disasters once were exceptional events. Today, they are a defining feature of modern agriculture. FAO’s data show a steady rise in annual losses, climbing from about $ 64 billion in the 1990s to more than $ 144 billion in recent years. Recovery alone is not enough. Risk management has always been central to farming, but today’s more extreme, frequent, and unpredictable events demand new approaches.
Managing risk in this new era requires two approaches working together: helping farmers prevent or prepare for disasters, and protecting their livelihoods when disasters strike. On the prevention side, digital tools and real-time data are changing what’s possible. In East Africa, early-warning systems now predict animal-disease outbreaks like Rift Valley Fever in time for vaccination campaigns to stop them from spreading.
In South Asia and Latin America, satellites track rainfall patterns, alerting farmers and planners when precipitation falls below normal so they can adjust planting decisions or arrange water supplies. In West Africa, mobile apps help farmers spot and respond to crop pests such as the fall armyworm before infestations spread across entire regions.
FAO’s digital platforms—like Soil Mapping for Resilient Agrifood systems (SoilFER) and the Climate Risk Toolbox—combine information on soil quality, weather forecasts, and local economic conditions to help farmers make better decisions about when and how much fertiliser to use. The Toolbox alone is now informing more than 200 agricultural projects worldwide.
Early warning can mediate but not fully prevent disaster impact. That’s where the second approach comes in: protecting farmers’ incomes when disasters do strike. New insurance and social protection programmes are designed to respond automatically when specific disaster conditions occur. For example, when rainfall drops below a certain level or flood waters reach a particular height, payments are triggered without farmers having to file claims or wait for damage assessments. These programmes mean that farmers don’t lose everything when a drought hits or a flood destroys their fields. Digital insurance schemes built on these principles now protect more than nine million farmers in 17 countries, providing a safety net that allows families to recover and replant rather than fall into debt or poverty.
Digital solutions are only as strong as the systems that connect them. They depend on clear rules, open data, and functioning markets that link local action to national priorities. Disaster risk reduction grows from trust, cooperation, and institutions able to turn information into timely response.
So far, progress remains uneven. About 2.6 billion people are still offline, many of them in rural areas most exposed to floods, droughts, and other shocks. Building digital access, improving local skills, and designing tools that reflect the realities of smallholder farmers will determine how inclusive this transformation becomes. The report emphasises that technologies are most effective when they are co-created with the communities they are meant to serve.
We know what works. Early warnings save lives. Insurance protects livelihoods. Digital tools help farmers make better decisions. The challenge isn’t figuring out what to do—it’s doing it at scale, fast enough to match the pace at which disasters risks are increasing and compounding.
Farmers have always adapted to manage disaster risks, but today’s escalating pressures demand faster responses and broader support. Effective disaster risk reduction will depend not only on innovation but on inclusion—ensuring that every farmer, fisher, and herder can access and act upon information that helps them mitigate risk and protect their livelihoods.
(This opinion piece draws on findings from FAO’s The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2025 – Digital Solutions for
Reducing Risks and Impacts).
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