Commentary

5th April 1998

Kosovo: factors for balkanisation

By Mervyn de Silva

Non-alignment was not Tito's idea, it was Nehru's but the Indian leader, author of 'Glimpses of World History" did have a glimpse of the future, and invented non-alignment as a protective shield from the inevitable assaults and pressures of a bipolar world.

Geo-politics rather than ideology made Tito's Yugoslavia an ideal site for NAM's headquarters although the communists ran the country. Yugoslavia was the frontline, the Soviet "satellites" in the East (the Warsaw Pact members) and America's allies (NATO) in the west, all democracies, and the transatlantic U.S-U.K., cousins a special relationship.

Non-alignment suited Tito's Yugoslavia ideally, the axiomatic factors understood and accepted. In the post-Cold War world however other, stronger mobilising forces are now at work. And this is quite clear in the armed struggles, riots and street clashes reported this past week by the major news agencies and Western correspondents. These reports introduce two crucial aspects that have "internationalised the crisis" as a United Nations observer described it.

"Nazmi Jashari, a Kosovan, was carrying his mother Bahtie to safety from Prekaz when police caught him, said Sylme Hashari, a family member. The police said to her "look how we execute your son, and they shot him in the neck and back".

"We are dealing here with a massacre ordered by the authorities," observed Veton Surroi, editor-in-chief of Koha Ditors, condemning Slobodan Milosevic, the President of federal Yugoslavia. Serbia's crackdown on rebel bases in central Kosovo has claimed the lives of at least 77 ethnic Albanians since February 28. This, he added, is the most brutal episode in the troubled province since the second World War. Everywhere demonstrators shout slogans demanding an end to "Serbian terror" and "ethnic cleansing". British cameraman Chris Wenner (ITN) was "badly beaten by two Serbs after he filmed" one of them kissing his pistol."

The question left unanswered is the immediate impact of all this on the popularity of Ibrahim Rugova, the president of the so-called "independent Republic of Kosovo." He was helpless. There is a well-tested logic in political situations such as this. The leader must be, or seen to be, tough or he will steadily lose support. But if he seeks to satisfy the hardline he soon becomes the prisoner of that bloc. Besides, the main opponent, the government, has to protect its mass base too. Last week, there was a compromise widely published in the media... probably inspired by influential members of the European Union. Autonomy, not independence for Kosovo. Secessionist rebels can be bought off with offers of an autonomous region but not always.

An American initiative which was announced in the media followed the nation-wide sorrow and anger over the crackdown in Kosovo against "separatist and the 80-plus casualties. The American envoy, Robert Gelbard met Yugoslav foreign minister, Zivadin Jovanovic and the President of Serbia, Milan Milunovio. His remarks after he talked to 13 of the 15 member negotiating team of the Albanians, were by no means, pessimistic. "Time is NOT on the side of the government" he remarked. There was compromise which Mr.Gelbard thought would speed up the negotiating process, a concession by the Albanian leadership. The Albanian leaders had insisted on "international mediation". They changed this demand to "some international presence."

Students of international mediation, sometimes called "honest brokers" should observe not just the new idiom but the innovative methods that are created to meet new, specific, unforeseen challenges. When the U.N Security Council decided to renew the mandate of UNPREDEP, a peace-keeping force based in Macedonia, it had a mandate to monitor many borders — with Albania, Kosovo and Serbia — and watch and report, that's all. "That was okay," said an Amercian envoy, Robert Gelbard, who warned however that 'time is not on our side' The US and the other five must move ahead with greater urgency. Washington has some doubts on Russian behaviour. The Yeltsin's administration has serious financial problems. The recent sweeping cabinet changes and President Yeltsin's reaction to each challenging situation reveals a leader whose age and illness have caused anxiety in the party, the bureaucracy, and now the increasingly influential business groups directly linked to western financial agencies including multi-national arms dealers and the Russian military heirarchy.

Last month, Prime Minister, Victor Chernomyrdin, told the press that he had no choice but to appeal to Vice-President Al Gore to lift restrictions placed on Russian exports. It will help stimulate Russia's depressed financial sector. A stolid former industrialist who has developed a reputation as a consensual pragmatist, Mr Chernomyrdin (59) has recently strengthened his position within the government and is trying to project a more forceful image at home, observe the Moscow-based British reporter John Thornhill. In short Russia which could intervene more efffectively in trouble-torn unstable Yugoslavia - Albania, has neither the inclination nor the time to do so. Besides, Communist party leadership still remembers, we can be certain, of Albania's choice of China as its patron and ideological guru during the famous theoretical/ideological Sino-Soviet battles. Yeltsin has promoted the 35 year old Energy Minister, Kiriyenko acting Prime Minister.

So, can NATO intervene to stabilise the region before the Balkans go the way of post-Cold War Third World country ravaged by ethnic conflicts? The Balkans did contribute a word to the English dictionary - balkanize

Hulftsdorp Hill

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