Gayoom must go

MALE - As two Sri Lankan journalists drive from the jetty to their hotel, less than a kilometre away at well past midnight, residents on this tiny capital of the Maldives run towards a small building. As a crowd gathers blocking traffic down a narrow street, the journalists' guide M. Naseem, nicknamed 'Bounty', gets off and shoves through the crowd.

He appears a few minutes later as car drivers toot their horns impatiently. "There were two chaps smoking heroin in a public toilet and some people had called the police," he said getting in as the crowd disperses when the police arrive.

Drugs is a new problem confronting the authorities and like everything else on this island of just 1.77 sq km, President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and his government are being blamed for either 'promoting' drugs to divert the youth from politics or not doing enough to stem its flow.

"Gayoom is not stopping the flow of drugs. I can't say he is involved but his security people are not even stopping it," said a political activist, who declined to be named.

That's however the least of the President's headaches. Political unrest, growing demands for a plural society and multi-party polls are moving faster than Gayoom, absolute ruler since 1978, can take it.

"There's no doubt about it - Gayoom has to go," says Mohamed Nasheed, chairperson of the path-breaking Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). Nasheed was freed from house arrest on September 21 after 13 months in detention, a development that took him by surprise.

"I have my doubts I would be released. Gayoom makes promises but doesn't keep them. Let's wait and see," he said in an interview at his residence, two days before being released. "People are already very impatient. There are a lot of youth groups in the last two months. There are four youth groups that have started and want direct action to bring Gayoom down. They have seen similar developments in the rest of the world."

Change is happening fast in the Maldives, an archipelago of 1,190 islands. The calm and shimmering waters of this Indian Ocean tourist destination that has attracted thousands of travellers from across the world belie the tensions and growing uncertainty here.

A 30-hour visit last week to the archipelago, an hour's flight from Colombo, to cover a political event is too short to make a sensible and objective analysis of Gayoom's regime and its worst-ever crisis. But short as it may be, it was enough for journalists like me who have regularly covered the Maldives and Gayoom power in the 1985 to 2000 period when the President was at his peak.

For example, Maldivian residents would never have dared to hold a public rally, drawing hundreds of people and openly criticizing Gayoom on torture, wrongful arrest or corruption like what we saw on Tuesday at the 'artificial' beachside when the political opposition led by the MDP organized a third year commemoration dubbed the "Day of Torture" to mark the death of 19-year-old Evan Naseem, a relatively unknown youth who rose to stardom only after he was killed in police custody.

Custodial killings are not a new phenomenon but returning the body of a person who died while in custody ostensibly from torture, to his relatives is rare. Naseem was arrested for a minor crime — involvement in a fight — and the authorities made the mistake of bringing his body to a Male hospital. There his mother, a weeping Mariam, removed the cloth covering the body, another rare move, to reveal huge marks, gashes and broken ribs. "Who killed my son?" Mariam wept in front of dozens of residents who crowded the hospital on September 19, 2003. "His ribs were broken. It was a terrible sight," noted our guide ‘Bounty’, saying that day changed his life. "That was when I decided to be more actively involved with the MDP."

It was this spark that helped the MDP to grow from an underground movement into the country's biggest party which says they can win handsomely if Gayoom has free and fair polls, and turn the screws on the President and his shaky government.

Ibrahim Hussain Zaki, a former Minister of Planning and Tourism and one-time SAARC Secretary-General, recalls how he alerted Gayoom to a dangerous situation evolving many years ago when there was remarkable change in the demography of the population. "Suddenly we realized that 78 percent of the population was less than 35 years, unlike 10 years ago when the reverse was happening," Zaki, who crossed over to the MDP in 2003 and is now its Deputy President, said at the MDP office in Male.

A shadow Foreign Minister for the MDP, the former minister said he told Gayoom that the change to a 'politically aware' youthful population was akin to a time-bomb waiting to explode with "young people getting educated but without jobs. They were getting doctorates, masters degrees."

"I tried to bring some change within the government when I was minister but that didn't work," he said, claiming that the government is now spending more than it is earning and some of the spending is funded by dubious means.

At the beachside protest rally, there were no Maldivian police or secret agents hovering around. Even if they were, there was no attempt to stop the rally. Nearby, a European soccer match was being shown on a large screen, evidently to draw away protestors in a recent typical government tactic unlike before when police would disperse protestors or arrest leaders of a rally. The government is not only allowing these rallies but also tactfully turning a blind eye to open criticism of Gayoom's regime. No more do people speak in whispers on street corners or in homes. Loud discussion at the Mercury restaurant amongst residents about the government is a regular occurrence. In fact, the Mercury owner was not supportive of the MDP at first until people began boycotting the place. Now he provides measured support -- not too much, not too little -- and business is growing. As we walk in, a cashier casually hands out a leaflet promoting Tuesday evening's beachside commemoration.

On the street, two youngsters on a motor cycle give a thumbs-up signal to 'Bounty", saying "Good MDP, good." The call for more democracy and freedom is no longer a muted cry. It's loud and clear like the small event outside Police headquarters.

On Tuesday evening, members of Gaumataka, a youth movement like many others springing up on the island demanding freedom, justice and democracy, placed flowers to mark Evan's death anniversary at the doorstep of the police office watched by nervous but unarmed guards. When a larger crowd gathered, police removed the flowers and shooed away the protestors. There was no violence or pushing and shoving, very unlike the Maldives in the 1980s or 1990s when democracy was not even a whisper in homes.

Change is indeed taking place fast in this South Asian country and it is evident that the most Gayoom could do is to delay political reforms or polls. On the other hand it could be political suicide to do so.

For such is Gayoom's diminishing power that political activists are now discussing his escape route as and when the President's 28-year-old regime ends. "There is talk that he would seek political asylum in Singapore backed by a powerful Indian businessman there," said one resident. It seems more than Gayoom's survival, it's his departure and 'what next' that is the main topic of conversation here.

* Feizal Samath was in the Maldives on a fact-finding mission for ‘Media for Democratic People Worldwide’