Uneasy lies the East
The People's Alliance wants to assess whether the Ranil Wickremesinghe administration is sitting on a powder keg vis-a-vis the peace process.

Though decisions are taken by UNP top rungers, the ground situation is becoming volatile day by day, placing more obstacles on the path to peace, PA analysts say.

The situation in the east is not favourable to either the UNF government or its ally the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress. The Muslims there feel that their problems and grievances have not been adequately addressed by the present SLMC leadership headed by Minister Rauff Hakeem. They ask what action the SLMC has taken to secure their rights in a Tamil-dominated interim administration in the North-East. Mr. Hakeem may be aware of these problems or grounds but is he in a position to convince the UNF leader to take appropriate action?

The SLMC leadership apparently believes that everything would fall in line with the setting up of the interim administration after the next round of talks or so but Muslims in the East refuse to buy this argument, given the LTTE's past behaviour.

The LTTE is behaving like as if it had already set up a separate state in the North and the East, a PA stalwart told this column, pointing out daily newspaper reports to this effect.
The situation may require the intervention of the Prime Minister to instill confidence in the Muslims of the East.

To allay the fears of the Muslims, Minister Hakeem should also play his cards wisely. He should take up the issue with LTTE Chief negotiator Anton Balasingham when he arrives in the country to meet LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran before the next round of talks in Thailand. Mr. Hakeem had a successful meeting with Mr. Prabhakaran in the Wanni a few months ago, but decisions taken at the meeting had not trickled down to the LTTE leadership in the provinces. As a result, Muslims in the east continue to be harassed by the LTTE. Mr. Hakeem knows well that if he does not take a strong stance, his party's eastern MPs could rebel against him.

The ground situation in the East has to be assessed immediately and remedial action taken if the government were to succeed in its efforts to bring normalcy to the country. This should be done fast because Muslims in the east feel that the government has failed to help them to re-build their houses and business premises damaged by the recent disturbances. The Valachchenai town was virtually reduced to rubble and Muslim settlements there had been uprooted but the government has yet to address these issues.

Another reason for Mr. Hakeem being in the bad books of Eastern Muslims is his statements to the effect that he would not rush to discuss the unit of devolution for Muslims. The statement came under strong criticism from SLMC breakaway group MPs Ferial Ashraff, M.L.A.M. Hisbullah and Segu Issadeen who by then had pledged to put their weight behind the SLMC leader.

These MPs are of the view that the issue of the unit of devolution for Muslims should have been taken up at the preliminary round of talks itself.

But a separate administrative unit is not the dream of the entire Eastern Muslim population. When the late A.H.M. Ashraff, the SLMC founder, mooted the concept of a South Eastern Council for Muslims in the late '90s, he faced strong opposition from the Muslims in Batticoloa, Trincomalee and Mannar. These Muslims alleged then that Mr. Ashraff was only trying to placate the Muslims in his electoral district of Ampara which was the least affected area in the North East conflict.

Muslims in other parts of the North and East were of the opinion once the demand for a South Eastern Council was granted, they would virtually be left at the mercy of the LTTE.

Once the demand for a Muslim Council is granted, they argued that the LTTE would pay scant regard for the rights of the Muslims living outside this council yet coming within the LTTE-run administration.

Despite this protest, Mr. Ashraff continued to promote the ide a of a separate Muslim council. However he dropped the idea later in the run up to the 2000 August draft constitutional bill.

Making a lengthy speech during the controversial debate of the PA sponsored peace package in parliament, Mr. Ashraff said the SLMC was abandoning its demand for a Muslim Council in the larger interest of the country and to facilitate the peace process.
He said the SLMC endorsed the North and East Regional Council as envisaged by chapter 28 of the draft constitution despite the risks it posed to Muslims.

He said if he did not adopt such a stance, it would be difficult to get the LTTE endorsement for the peace package.

While the SLMC at that point put an end to marketing the concept of a separate administrative council for Muslims, the demand had been already entrenched in the minds of sections of the Muslims in the East.

The latest wave of protests by the Eastern Muslims demanding a separate council therefore should be viewed in this light.

However, as it happened in the late '90s, Muslims in the other parts of the Eastern Province are strongly opposed to this arrangement.

They argue that the final solution to the conflict should address the aspirations of Muslims in all parts of the North and East and not only those in the East.

Eastern Muslims, they claim, therefore, should not put forward the demand for a separate council at this juncture as it would minimize the chances of a fair deal being clinched for all Muslims in the North and East.

It is in this backdrop, the PA feels that the UNF government is in some sort of a quagmire as far as the peace process in concerned.

The PA is also worried about the UNF's attitude towards President Kumaratunga. The PA leadership is of the view that the UNF government from day one took a confrontational course with regard to the President, making the co-habitation exercise a mockery.

They believe Ministers Ravi Karunanayake and Rajitha Senaratne are working towards the collapse of the cohabitation arrangement and ask why the UNF cannot accept the President's assurance to parliament that she would not dissolve parliament.

The PA argues that the President's communication to the Speaker is a valid legal document, unlike her assurances given to the JVP in 1994 that she would abolish the executive presidency.

The PA leaders ask that if the UNF could take the LTTE into confidence, why can't it trust the President of the country? After all she made it a point to communicate directly with the Speaker in accordance with the constitution.

The PA is quite confident that the 19th Amendment will not go through because it affects the very foundation of the democratic principles, the party system. "If the conscience vote is allowed, then we will be compelled to keep with us a bunch of fellows who defy the party whip. This is against the democratic principles," a senior PA Parliamentarian said.

Another politician said that today the UNF could target PA MPs, but they must remember the same provisions could be used against UNP MPs when the PA came to office.

Though the provision appears to look like that the conscience vote is meant only for this amendment, it is going to remain in the constitution and be part and parcel of it. It will remain alive all the time and has the danger of being used to push more constitutional amendments in the future.

This was the main line of argument submitted by senior counsel H.L. de Silva in the Supreme Court last week when a seven judge bench headed by Chief Justice Sarath Silva examined the provisions of the new amendment to determine its constitutionality.
To counter these PA charges, the UNP is toying with the idea of expeditiously setting up the interim administration in the North and the East.

But is the LTTE ready to accept an interim administration? The formula for the interim administration has to be discussed widely since it should reflect the thinking of all the communities living in the North and East.

It should be a representative body of all the political parties operating in the North and the East which could look after the interests of the various communities.

It appears now that the LTTE is agreeable to the joint task force for rehabilitation of the North-East rather than the interim administration.

If the government could set up the interim administration answers for half the problems faced by the people could be found within that administration.

The LTTE would be forced to fall in line with the central administrative set up and act according to the law of the country. This means all LTTE law enforcement methods will have to come to an end gradually.

Prime Minister Wickremesinghe is politically mature enough to steer the peace ship on course without harming the interests of the LTTE, the Muslim and the Sinhalese. No solution can be worked out overnight or thrust down the throat of the people. His peace hunt is a process, which means it has to be done step by step, issue by issue.
As far as the problems relating to co-habitation are concerned, a section of the UNP is pressing hard that the President should be removed by way of an impeachment motion.

But it appears that the leadership is not interested in pursuing this idea since it would be a long and an arduous process.

The President's latest utterance alleging that the Prime Minister while he was Minister of Education solicited bribes to admit a child to Royal College has raised the hornet's nest and given more ammunition to a section of the UNP. They might now drum up support within the party to impeach the President on the premise that co-habitation cannot work in Sri Lanka.

Their position is that the President has done everything possible to make co-habitation impossible.

However, in the interest of the country, the UNF should find ways and means to surmount these problems amicably without giving way to confrontational politics.

Prime Minister Wickremesinghe made it clear at a news conference in New York during his recent visit, saying, "I should not reply to the President, she is the head of state, but I will execute the mandate given to me by the people."

The Prime Minister is right. He has shown great maturity in politics given his days as a young minister in the J.R. Jayewardene Cabinet and it is important that others should follow suit. Maturity comes not at once but over the years of political experience and the young turks in the UNP should not rush to conclusions, but follow the principles laid down by the leader who is taking the brunt of the problems on his shoulders.

On the other hand the President should also be mindful of the dual mandate given by the people. While the President could remain in office for at least another three years, she should realise that the people have given a fresh mandate to the UNF to remain in office for six years. Therefore it is important that the two leaders work out a compromise formula to achieve the common goal of peace.

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