Unfortunately the Census figure itself is a partial enumeration supplemented with an estimate and not a full count of the population. Therein lies the predicament as to what our real population count is. The year-to-year population is obtained by adding the number of registered births each year, deducting the number of registered deaths and adjusting for the migration figures. This has been a satisfactory way of obtaining the country's population figure for the inter-censal years. This is especially so as in the past the records of registrations of births and deaths have been good and the figure obtained did not vary much with the population count. The current position is very different.

The Census of Population was conducted after 20 years, deviating from the usual practice of having a Census every ten years. Then the last Census could not be carried out in three districts and in four others it was only partial. Therefore the Census figure itself has an element of estimation.

For this reason it is difficult to accept this figure. On the other hand, the estimated mid year population figure could be very defective as the 20 year intervening period between the Censuses witnessed upheavals that had a bearing on the registrations of deaths and the migration figures. These included the JVP insurgency that led to perhaps thousands of youth being killed and burned to death, an unprecedented out migration of people through various channels that had not been counted and the deaths of thousands of others in the civil war and those "missing in action". All these have a bearing on the current population figures.

For the reasons mentioned, it is likely that the mid-year population of 19.4 million for 2001 was perhaps an overestimate. On the other hand, it is difficult to reconcile that there has been an unregistered loss of as much as 700,000 persons in the intervening period. A figure of around 400,000 is more likely. In which case the 2001 population would be about 19 million, rather than the estimated 19.4 million or the Census estimate of 18.7 million.

What this discussion implies is the need to do a proper count perhaps another intervening Census in 2006, when hopefully conditions in the country would enable a proper enumeration of the population. This is particularly important, as it is not only the total population figure that is needed but also the district-wise and provincial figures. It is also important to ensure that the next Census is free from biases and non-counting in areas of the country.

Let us turn to some of the implications of a revised figure of the population. Even without considering a revision of past figures of many economic variables that would pose considerable difficulties and revision of many assessments on the economy, even the current figures and future estimates have important implications. First of what the entire Census figures imply is that the population growth rate has been smaller than estimated. Second, the future projections of populations are now in disarray. New projections of population are needed, yet this cannot commence till the base figures are better. Third the age profile of the population is likely to be different.

Fourth, the Census also disclosed the sex ratios to be very different with women out numbering the men by a more significant amount. This has important implications for population growth.

An important change would be in the calculation of per capita income. The Central Bank has already adjusted the GDP per capita figures for the past few years. For instance the per capita income for 2000 has been revised from US dollars 856 to 899. The per capita income for 2001 of US$ 837 was on the basis of Census population figure of 18.7 million.

This statistical increase in per capita income would itself have certain implications about the terms on which we obtain international assistance. Some of the concessional finance may not be available to us.

The overall implications of this discussion is the need to arrive at an acceptable estimate of the current population on rational and scientific lines, the need to revise certain important economic figures without distorting past assessments and most importantly, the need to conduct another Census in a few years time so that the country has a proper estimate of the total population, its composition and distribution.

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