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Nuclear war fallout in South Asia: Is Sri Lanka ready?
India and Pakistan are in a race to expand their nuclear arsenal. Both countries test-fired nuclear-capable ballistic missiles this month, amidst recent tensions along the Line of Control (Loc) dividing the Indian and Pakistani parts of Jammu and Kashmir.
A study by the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) has for the first time looked at the possible fallout of a nuclear war in South Asia. Now, questions are also being raised about how prepared Sri Lanka is to face such a risk. “We are 99.9 per cent prepared for any disaster arising from a nuclear reactor accident but we have not discussed the issue of nuclear warfare in the region,” said Dr. Ranjith Laxman Wijayawardana, Chairman of the Atomic Energy Authority of Sri Lanka.
In a section titled, “Scenario: a regional nuclear war in South Asia,” UNIDIR cites existing research about the consequences of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. It suggests that, if each uses 50 weapons of 15kt (energy) against the others’ urban areas, “such an exchange between India and Pakistan could produce about 21 million fatalities—about half as many as occurred globally during World War II”.
“In view of the challenges a single nuclear weapon detonation in a highly populated area would pose, it appears unlikely that any state could handle the consequences for its population of the detonation of nuclear weapons in multiple urban areas within its own capacities and resources,” the UNIDIR report says, of South Asia.
The full size of India or Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal remains secret—but it is clear that both are growing. On November 9, India test-fired a nuclear-capable strategic ballistic missile called Agni-II. Nine days later, Pakistan tested an intermediate range Shaheen 1A (Hatf IV) ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear and conventional warheads.
As firing and shelling escalated to “dangerous levels” along the LoC and the Indo-Pak border, the two countries issued ominous warnings to each other. India cautioned Pakistan against any “adventurism” and the Pakistani Government replied saying it was fully capable of responding “befittingly” to Indian aggression.
“We don’t want the situation on the borders of the two nuclear neighbours to escalate into a confrontation. India must demonstrate caution and behave with responsibility,” Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif is quoted by media as saying.
Sri Lanka must keep track of these developments and start speaking up, a senior diplomatic source said. He did not wish to be named. “We must understand that Sri Lanka is a downwind country,” he pointed out. “There could be catastrophic results in terms of radioactive material being carried towards us by the wind. And now, for the first time, the possibility of a nuclear war in South Asia is being talked about in a UN report.”
“It might be a remote possibility,” he agreed. “India and Pakistan will strongly deny it, and say it is as much a fantasy as a nuclear war in Europe. They will say that nuclear weapons are merely a form of deterrence. But even if there is a remote window of them being used, Sri Lanka must be prepared.”
Pakistan is getting increasingly destabilised, this source, who has long followed the subject, pointed out. “There is no guarantee that the Taliban or some other source will not eventually lay their hands on weapons or radioactive material,” he warned. “A terrorist group could target a nuclear reactor. They can get control of nuclear active material, put it in a reservoir and use it as blackmail. There could be radiological warfare. I strongly feel it is time to start raising this topic.”
The UNIDIR report reveals that modeling of an India-Pakistan regional war scenario using climate change models indicated that 100 airbursts of 15kt in urban areas “could produce so much soot from burning cities that it would have significant effects on the climate”.
The report also warns that there would be mass-scale displacement from affected areas. “Even assuming that the number of those displaced was only the same as the total number of short-term fatalities in the study cited above (a conservative estimate), this would create 21 million displaced people,” it states. “To put this in the context of existing global displacement figures, in 2013 there were estimated to be 33.3 million internally displaced persons globally and 10.4 million refugees of concern to UNHCR.”
“Thus, a nuclear conflict of the kind described above would add at least a third to this total number overnight. In the immediate term, people would most likely flee from cities into the surrounding countryside,” it says.
Sri Lanka is not prepared for such eventualities but has taken several measures to guard against adverse effects of nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred in Fukushima, Japan. The closest nuclear power plant to Sri Lanka is situated at Koodankulam in South India, around 220 km away.
“We have analysed the situation,” said Dr Wijayawardana. “The most serious impact of an accident is within a 50 kilometre radius of the incident. Sri Lanka is about 220 km away from Koodankulam. If there is an accident, and there is a high release of radioactive material into the air, depending on atmospheric conditions, it can get blown towards Sri Lanka.”
“That is the only case we are worried about and we have taken measures to mitigate that,” he continued. “We have prepared a Nuclear Emergency Preparedness Programme along with the Disaster Management Centre. We have provided technical advice. Eight nuclear detectors have been installed around the country and we will know immediately if an incident occurs. Existing radioactivity has been mapped.”
Dr. Wijayawardana said training of technicians and other personnel was in progress. He also said around Rs 50 million had been spent last year in buying necessary technologies and equipment, including survey meters, under the preparedness programme. The question of nuclear warfare, however, was far more serious, he admitted.