Political Column

Ahead of the second Avurudhu season under his executive Presidency, Mahinda Rajapaksa appeared to be on the all important task of stock taking. The recent months have seen an unprecedented escalation of the undeclared Eelam War IV. Compared to the previous phases, it has had a more telling effect on Sri Lankans countrywide. By the Government's own public declarations, bolstered by some Security Forces top brass, they want to continue the military push to secure the East and focus their sights on the North. Such offensive exercises would no doubt mean more fighting. That is in the backdrop of the March 26 demonstration by the Tiger guerrillas of their air strike capability.

As against that, during his one-on-one talks with SAARC leaders, President Rajapaksa took great pains to make clear the Government was strongly committed to a political settlement. The military was only engaged in "anti terrorist" offensives and that did not contradict the pursuit of a political settlement to the ethnic issue. In fact, his own Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) is mulling over a set of proposals whilst a widely encompassing one would come up before the All-Party Representatives Committee (APRC) shortly.

In this backdrop of two different scenarios, President Rajapaksa this week took the unusual step of sounding out confidants and ministerial colleagues on the number of options left to him. What final decision he makes remains to be seen. But, if one is to go by some of the probing questions he had raised, he gave some of them a deep insight into his thinking -- that is to examine more deeply the prospects of a political road map than a military adventure. As President and one holding the portfolio of Minister of Finance, he should know. The biggest casualty from the ongoing undeclared Eelam War IV is not the Tiger guerrillas but the nation's economy. Already, some of the leading Western nations that donated substantial funds for tsunami recovery have withdrawn part of the funding.

Not one foreign Government chose it fit to condemn the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) bombing of the Air Force Base on March 26. Not even after the guerrillas have demonstrated, for the first time, that they were the only non-state actors in the world to have an "Air Wing," a "paved runway" and now aircraft to attack an Air Force which has been in existence for more than 50 years. If that was bad enough, worse still was their deafening silence over the string of attacks on civilians, for all of which the Internationala Community blamed the Government. Paradoxically, the LTTE took such silence to mean an endorsement of their military action.

Highly-placed Government circles have been talking of a mild thawing of the Government thinking. They say they want to explore, without any compromise or prejudice to their current thinking, whether a window of opportunity still exists for a dialogue with the guerrillas. Such a dialogue, it goes without saying, is without any loss of face or comprise by the Government. Such thinking had been prevalent even before the attack on the Air Base at Katunayake. That was why Basil Rajapaksa, senior presidential advisor and brother of President Rajapaksa, obtained a visa and planned a visit to Norway. The air attack prompted President Rajapaksa to ask him to cool it. And now, highly-placed sources say a recent "pole vaulter" from the United National Party (UNP) is to make informal soundings in Oslo. He is expected to visit there sometime soon. However, Norway, which has also burnt its hands and has been hauled over the coals by some parties for their facilitator role, will also be cautious.

Of course, it is being made very clear that this Minister has no official Government mandate to have any formal talks. But his dialogue, like the one that led to the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement of February 2002, would become invaluable if the prospects of a breakthrough become imminent. How would such a breakthrough come about? "Well, at least publicly, the guerrillas have to wink more than once for a resumption of the dialogue whilst the Government would have to be seen to remain without blinking," said one high-ranking official. However, he was quick to add that "everything is still in a fluid state" and we do not know how the course of events will take shape."

President Rajapaksa awaits the new developments to chart the future course of his Government. This week, he was buoyant when he met leaders of the constituent parties of the Government. He made particular mention to many that he was well treated in India when he went for the SAARC summit. That was in contrast to the treatment he received when he was on an official visit a few months ago. He spoke to the party leaders about a matter that has come to be known. He said Opposition and UNP leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe and his close associates were making every effort to topple the Government. They were trying to win over Government parliamentarians. "I can assure you not one parliamentarian from the SLFP will ever leave," he said confidently. The assertion came amidst warnings to Rajapaksa that some pro-UNP businessmen had come forward to provide large amounts of money for Government MPs to cross over.

Despite President Rajapaksa's great elation over his Indian visit, an incident where unidentified persons seized a vehicle belonging to the Indian High Commission in Colombo has raised alarm bells in the South Block in India. External Affairs Ministry officials have been incensed that the driver employed by the High Commission has been badly assaulted (with his two front teeth broken), and the vehicle robbed. Though Government officials bluntly deny the charge, some of their Indian counterparts believe that attack was pre-meditated. "Crew cut types, armed were involved in the assault and robbery" a diplomat said virtually asking the question whether some militant group was behind the exercise, rather than a pure criminal act. The driver was released only at 4.30 the next morning. Officially, though, only a Police complaint has been made by the Indian High Commission, and a report sent to the Foreign Ministry in Colombo.

The question is how those at the Foreign Ministry, where seasoned career diplomats are increasingly rare, will move to do damage control. The outcome of the ongoing stocktaking is not expected until several weeks later in view of upcoming commitments of the President. On April 18 he leaves for Italy for a three-day official visit. Among the highlights is an audience with Pope Benedict at the Vatican for President Rajapaksa and wife, Shiranthi. He returns to Colombo on April 22. Thereafter, President Rajapaksa is to make an official visit to Nepal. Diplomatic consultations between Colombo and Kathmandu are now under way to finalise dates and a programme.

Another hallmark foreign tour for President Rajapaksa will come in June when he visits Geneva. The head of the ILO Juan Somavia has invited him to make the keynote address at the International Labour Organisation annual sessions. Rajapaksa, who was one time Labour Minister, and champion of trade union rights, was invited by the ILO chief when he met him in New York. That was when Rajapaksa visited the United Nations to attend the UN General Assembly sessions. Also scheduled on the sidelines is a meeting with the UN Commissioner on Human Rights, Anne Arbor. Sri Lanka's Disaster Management and Human Rights Minister, it is learnt, is laying the groundwork for the event which comes amidst complaints of the deteriorating human rights situation in Sri Lanka. Earlier, UN officials say Ms. Arbor had planned a visit to Sri Lanka whilst on an Asian tour.

The Government has long considered the International Community (IC), and especially Ambassadors of western countries based in Colombo with some annoyance. They are labeled as 'bleeding hearts' when it comes to human rights issues in Sri Lanka, while their respective Government's trample human rights elsewhere. This week, Rajapaksa himself was to discuss the role, in particular, of the German Ambassador Juergen Weerth with his international affairs advisers. The Opposition UNP has decided to take three matters before the people in the coming months as it begins to launch its protest rallies countrywide. The three issues are the deteriorating human rights record of the Government, the rising cost-of-living, and the Rajapaksa 'Samagama', or Rajapaksa Incorporated - the running of the Rajapaksa presidency by the troika of brothers, Mahinda, Gotabhaya and Basil.

The Government's human rights record and complaints of abductions took the centre stage at a meeting at Kathiresan Hall in Colombo. The meeting was organized by parliamentarian Mano Ganeshan, and Opposition and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was to engage in light hearted banter to highlight reported disappearances and abductions. He said it was fortunate that renowned cricketer Muttiah Muralitharan was in the West Indies playing matches for Sri Lanka in the World Cup. If he were to be in Colombo, by now, a white van would have abducted him. He said that would have been the fate of even the skilled all rounder, Sanath Jayasuriya.

But Wickremesinghe struck a more forceful note at a meeting at Sri Kotha on Tuesday. He called for the resignation of Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa. This was in the light of the Tiger guerrilla attack on the Air Force base in Katunayake. Instead, he urged, that former Army Major General turned diplomat Maj. Gen (retd.) Janaka Perera be appointed Defence Secretary. UNP sources said Maj. Gen. (retd.) Perera, who was Sri Lanka’s High Commissioner in Australia and later Ambassador in Indonesia, had met Wickremesinghe for a lengthy discussion.

Maj. Gen. Perera was not granted an extended diplomatic term by the Rajapaksa administration after he lost favour on a number of matters. Main among them was his inability, despite being the Sri Lankan envoy, to obtain an appointment with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhyono for Prime Minister, Ratnasiri Wickremanayake. This was when the latter paid an official visit, particularly to urge Jakarta to contain LTTE activity in that country. Foreign Ministry officials said it was former Foreign Secretary, H.G.M.S. Palihakkara, who worked the appointment from Colombo.

Another move that is said to have earned the Rajapaksa administration's ire is said to be a request by Maj. Gen. (retd.) Perera, when he attended a conference of Sri Lankan envoys abroad in Colombo, that the Foreign Office should enhance allowances for heads of missions for sports activities like golf. A similar appeal had also been made by Maj. Gen. Perera to the Secretary to the President, Lalith Weeratunga during that time.

The retired military officer was decorated in the Army, and shot into prominence when he posted, under his command, a major set-back to the LTTE when they tried to overrun the Weli-Oya garrison. Later he was associated with the arrest of JVP leader Rohana Wijeweera in 1989, and then, was credited with having been one of the senior commanders who took charge of beleaguered Jaffna peninsula during the LTTE assault on Elephant Pass in April 2000. But despite his track record in the military, then President Chandrika Kumaratunga overlooked him for the top job in the Army, and instead posted him to Canberra as High Commissioner.

Despite Wickremesinghe's unsolicited advice to the Government, he refrained from saying whether Maj. Gen. Perera was his own choice for Defence Secretary should the UNP come to office. Had he said that, he may have had some support from a section of the people, who has been removed from the Party, because they feel that the UNP is going too soft on the LTTE. With that said, Wickremesinghe flew off on yet another overseas visit, this time to Bhutan via New Delhi - to be followed by the President to Italy. April has been a migratory season for most Sri Lankan political leaders of recent years.

New peace initiative for New Year