Columns

This year’s celebration of the Aluth Avurudda or Sinhala and Tamil New Year, may be somewhat austere, especially in the villages, due to several reasons.

While there are ample reasons to expect it to be austere, our people have a knack of celebrating festivals even in difficult economic conditions.

Reasons for austerity

The shortages of basic necessities; the difficulty of family members in Colombo and other cities returning to their villages; the lower Maha harvest and depressed incomes; high prices; shortages of essentials and the severe drought that is expected could make this New Year celebration a low-key one.

Anxiety

In addition, some villagers are anxious about their family members’ safety in West Asian countries. There are an estimated one million Sri Lankans in West Asian countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Israel, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Lebanon. Only a few of them have been able to return.

In spite of these difficulties, the resourcefulness of our people is such that the festivities of the national new year are not muted by the prevailing difficulties.

The rich

The more affluent in cities are likely to celebrate the New Year in the usual extravagant manner. However, even their celebrations are likely to be tempered by the shortages of gas and fuel, though perhaps not by higher prices. Yet, “My child, the prices of things, noh!” refrain is likely to punctuate conversations in drawing rooms.

Hotels

In fact, there are preparations in luxury hotels in Colombo to celebrate the New Year in a grand manner.

These are indicators of the wide disparities in incomes in our country.

Shopping

Shops in the main cities have been crowded as usual. This was especially so in Colombo, Kandy and their suburbs.

Year ahead

As we pointed out in last Sunday’s column, apart from the scarcities of imported essentials, the severe impacts of the El Niño drought that is predicted would bring about serious consequences for the rural people, the country’s food security and the economy.

Harvests

The 2025/26 Maha harvest that was reaped before the New Year is estimated to record a shortfall of about one third the normal. This may lead to a significant decrease in rural incomes.

Farmers’ plight

A farmer in the North Central Province captured his plight in this plaintive refrain: “My harvest was only a third, and that too was eaten by an elephant.”

Monsoon

If the country’s southwest monsoon rains fail, as predicted, the ensuing severe drought would mean an inability to sow the Yala crop. Apart from a shortfall in rice affecting rural households, the need to import rice would strain the foreign reserves of the country. In fact, the government has already permitted private traders to import certain rice varieties. This would be a strain on our trade balance that is already widening owing to the higher prices of fuel and other essential imports.

Foreign reserves

The higher expenditure on essential imports and the widening trade deficit owing to lower exports and lesser earnings from tourism could erode our foreign reserves, which stood at US$ 7.3 billion at the end of February.

Concluding reflection

This year’s national New Year may be celebrated on a low key. It may also herald a year of severe hardships and strains on the economy. On Wednesday, a ceasefire of two weeks was announced to halt hostilities between Iran and the US-Israeli axis. This will, we hope, lead to a settlement of the disputes between them and lead to a durable peace in West Asia.