Columns

The arrest of former President Ranil Wickremasinghe on charges of misusing state funds has sparked off gatherings of large crowds near the Colombo General Hospital and several parts of Colombo.

Indications are that there would be organised and spontaneous demonstrations against his arrest.

Economic implications

The intent of this column is to draw out some economic and political implications of this development, rather than comment on his arrest. We leave that to political and legal commentators, who would discuss the issue authoritatively and comprehensively.

Political bias

The discussion of a political issue such as this will be tainted by political and ideological biases. In as much as public opinion is coloured by political bias, commentators too would be swayed by their political biases. This is inevitable.

Sympathy

Furthermore, a wave of sympathy for ex-president Wickremesinghe has been generated after his poor state of health became public.

Political opportunism

As to be expected, there has also been more than a tinge of political opportunism. Opposition parties are seeking advantages by evoking sympathy for Mr. Wickremesinghe. There are even expectations of rival political parties joining and new alliances being formed.

Complex

Complicating the issue, several issues have been brought out regarding the charges levied on the ex-president. First, was the invitation for the convocation and felicitation lunch at Wolverhampton University an official one? Surely an invitation sent by a British university through the British High Commission to the President of Sri Lanka is an official one. Furthermore, there is the view that all activities of a president are official. This is the convention in the United States, as well as other countries, in respect of their presidents and prime ministers.

Furthermore, it is only the trip from London to Wolverhampton University, a distance of about 200 miles, that is in question. And there can be no question that the President had to have security.

First lady

One could also contend that the President was entitled to take his wife on this official trip to Cuba and the US, though he did not. However, Mrs Wickremesinghe, who was conferred an honourary doctorate, had paid for her travel.

Private Secretary

Curiously, the President’s secretary, who accompanied him, thought the invitation to Wolverhampton was not an official one! In any case, this discussion of his travel is of a trivial nature.

More serious

Many have pointed out that in comparison to this, the “Bond Scam” was far more corrupt. Consequently, there is a body of public opinion that is veering to the view that this charge has been politically motivated.

Economic implications

Our main concern, however, is whether there are economic consequences of this controversy.

Although it is premature to forecast such developments, one could speculate about some political changes that could affect the economy.

Distraction

One likely scenario is that the protests, demonstrations, disturbances and strikes that may occur could distract and impede the government’s focus on the crucial issues facing the country. Even parliamentary debates could be derailed amid accusations of political revenge by the government.

New alignments

Will opposition parties that have united in their opposition to the arrest of Mr. Wickremesinghe come together for a greater alliance?

The course of political developments is difficult to predict. The opposition to the government could strengthen or fade away. What is of importance is that the government should not be distracted from the programme of reforms and the formidable economic challenge it faces. This is especially so as the global economic outlook is challenging.

Concluding reflection

The view on the former President’s arrest and charges will no doubt be determined by one’s political leanings and opinions about Ranil Wickremesinghe. An objective assessment would be rare. On the other hand, political parties have used his arrest to gain popular support. Even at this early stage it is clear that political parties that had difficulties uniting will form new alliances. Such is the stuff of politics. Many politicians have been quoting the saying of a British politician that in politics there are no permanent friends or enemies. Only time will tell what the final outcome of the current upheaval will be.

When all these developments are considered, the fear is that they would distract the government from the national priorities of forging national unity and communal harmony and adopting pragmatic policies to meet the formidable economic challenges that lie ahead.

The country’s post-independence history has been one of a series of distractions from the adoption of needed economic policies owing to political upheavals, communal riots and a thirty-year civil war. These and our political culture have been responsible for the inability of governments to undertake needed reforms.

Let us hope that the current political convulsions do not derail the economy. Although the economy has been faring well this year, there could be severe challenges ahead owing to tariffs, trade sanctions, escalation of global conflicts and a global economic recession.

The government must be focused on these formidable challenges. They must not be distracted by the political upheavals, as the economic challenges are formidable.