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WHO-linked medical specialists call for lockdown extension till Oct 2 to save thousands of lives
A WHO- facilitated group of Sri Lankan medical professionals has recommended extending the current lockdown to October 2 or at least till September 18 which, if implemented, would save thousands of lives from the deadly COVID-19 pandemic.
“Extending lockdowns past August 31 is projected to reduce deaths from COVID-19. If the lockdowns are extended to September 18 and October 2, (it would save) respectively, 7,500 and 10,000 deaths,” the group said in a report (seen by the Sunday Times) after its meeting held on Thursday, August 26.
On Friday, the Government announced an extension of the 10-day lockdown (which should have ended on August 30) to September 6. The WHO-facilitated group is recommending a six-week or at least a four-week lockdown (from August 21) to break the cycle of infections.
By doing so, the group said the vaccination drive could be completed for effective protection of the people especially in the context of the rapid spread of the Delta variant, while the health system would have some time “to recover from extreme pressure including shortage of beds and critical supplies like oxygen”.
The group facilitated by Dr. Palitha Abeykoon, an eminent specialist and WHO consultant, comprises some of Sri Lanka’s most eminent doctors and medical specialists.
Examining the current situation, the group said that close to 90 percent of the samples sequenced show the Delta variant has now spread to provinces other than the Western Province. This variant is highly transmissible with shorter incubation period.
“Hospitals are at full capacity with an increasing number of health workers getting infected. Critical supplies including oxygen are low in stock and the virus is spreading within homes,” it warned. As an urgent response, it recommended enforcement of stringent measures with compliance of the public to reinforce accelerated vaccination; and a social support system for the vulnerable population.
The group quoted an economic projection model developed by Imperial College as saying that a four-week lockdown followed by gradual relaxation would cost the economy US$1.67 billion, while in the case of a six-week lockdown, the economic impact would be $2.2 billion.
It said the current classification of Sri Lanka is ‘red’ which adversely affects tourism. ‘Green’ status (UK) requires daily cases less than 950 and test positivity rate less than 2.5 percent.
“Extending the stringency measures would reverse the current trajectory and move Sri Lanka towards ‘amber’ and achieving ‘green’ status by the end of the year,” the report said, adding that overall, global and local evidence indicates that economies bounce back quickly once stringencies are removed.
Among the group’s recommendations are:
• Key adjustments in service delivery to care for cases, effective triage system supported by health professionals.
• Optimise the home management protocols and monitoring of hypoxia (inadequate oxygen levels in a person’s body).
• Accelerate vaccination and target the vulnerable to be given the most effective vaccines.
In the prevention of transmission, it recommended:
• Extend strict social measures to reduce transmission.
• Household and individual compliance is crucial.
• Reduce mobility by better targeting the measures that should be tightened using mobility data from Google Maps, mobile phone data and Facebook data to identify the most important measures.
• Plan in advance for a systematic re-opening of sectors, regions, return of employment categories.
In looking after low income groups, it recommended establishing safety nets and strengthening social support systems by engaging with temples and religious groups, NGOs, civil society etc (i.e. a national mobilisation effort) to overcome needs of the lower income groups, led by the Government (and supported by development partners as needed).