Political Column - President faces crisis of credibility

* Kohona’s remarks antagonize military
* LTTE in last-minute bid to prevent EU ban
* Cabinet reshuffle soon but no decision still on snap poll

By Our Political Editor

War or no war, the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa is becoming a casualty almost every week. It is not due to enemy action. His trusted lieutenants are kicking into their own goal and they are making a fine art of it.

The latest event came this week. Head of the Government Peace Secretariat Palitha Kohona, a former United Nations diplomat, told BBC's Sinhala service Sandesaya that President Rajapaksa has ordered security forces to stop all dealing with the Karuna faction. This was by way of finance, or arms with the renegade faction of Tamil Tigers.

Sandesaya said "when questioned, Kohona admitted that there may be low level contacts with cadres of the Karuna group. There has been a ceasefire and may be security personnel could have had personal contacts with other groups. They may have visited each other for things like to have a meal. That's human nature."

He had also expressed similar sentiments in an interview to Reuters news agency.

Every pro-LTTE Tamil and English web sites gave wide play to the remarks by the Government's top official tasked to handle peace talks with Tiger guerrillas. The remarks infuriated the military leadership who complained that Kohona implied that they were in fact acting in cahoots with the Karuna faction. "Orders to stop financing or providing arms meant we were providing them all this time. When he says that other ranks were dealing with Karuna cadres, he gives the impression that it took place under our very noses," declared a high ranking Army officer who did not wish to be identified. He said such remarks placed the leadership of the security forces in poor light. "The public were made to feel we were double dealers. To the enemy, we were projected as rebelling against Government policy. Both are bad for us," he added.

Another gem came from the government's new defence spokesman and former UNPer Keheliya Rambukwella. In the face of a European Union ban on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), he declared that the whole world could ban them, but that the Government will continue to talk with the guerrillas. He was making these remarks while his own Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera was in Qatar, urging Arab nations to ban the LTTE on the lines of the EU and other countries that had done so.

Earlier, Rambukwella accused the LTTE of the massacre of civilians in Kayts. This was on the same day state media reported that President Rajapaksa had ordered a full investigation into the civilian killings and had the Police Chief Chandra Fernando detail a team to conduct a probe. If Rambukwella was right, there was no need for a CID inquiry.

One had to only deal with the LTTE, like what the Government did, after the April 25 suicide bomb attack at Army Headquarters. On the other hand, if President Rajapaksa was right, (which is the case in this instance), the Rambukwella remarks were out of place. Who did it can be formally ascertained only when a probe is concluded. Such contradictory remarks are too many and too much that they cannot be catalogued here. Suffice to say, like during previous administrations, a crisis of credibility for the Rajapaksa Government is growing. The absence or the lack of corrective action is making it worse. Even the role of the state media in this regard seems inadequate going by the lament of Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna's Wimal Weerawansa. He cited instances during a special debate in Parliament on the Sea Tiger attempt to sink the passenger ferry Pearl Cruise II. Of course he took swipes at some of the privately-owned media too.

So much so, it took President Rajapaksa himself to set the record right over Kohana's remarks. He told Norway's Minister for International Development Erik Solheim and Special Envoy Hanssen Bauer his Government had no links with the Karuna faction. The remarks came when the President and his officials held talks with the Norwegian duo at the Presidential Secretariat.

Solheim had cautioned that the two sides, the Government and the LTTE were sliding towards war. He said the peace talks could be resumed if the Government was willing to deal with the Karuna faction. Then, the LTTE was willing to return to the negotiating table. The same sentiments were expressed by LTTE chief negotiator Anton Balasingham in an exclusive interview with The Sunday Times last week.

President Rajapaksa said the Government was ready for talks without any pre-conditions. "Even at this point of time we are ready," he said underscoring the wave of violence unleashed by the LTTE in the past months. He suggested that the Norwegian peace facilitators should speak to Karuna (Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan) about his own role. There was no response from the Norwegians to the suggestion. The two-hour talks ended inconclusively.

Solheim had cautioned all parties concerned even before his arrival in Colombo, not to expect any spectacular results from his current visit. Though he wanted to travel to Kilinochchi, a meeting with LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran was not possible. This was because Balasingham was not on hand. Hence Bauer travelled there yesterday. Solheim left for New Delhi to brief Indian leaders.

The uncertainty over the peace process comes ahead of two significant events. Tomorrow, the Ministerial Council of the European Union meets to endorse a proposal to ban the LTTE. Colombo based European diplomats say the decision would have to be unanimous and express confidence it would be carried. However, there were a few who expressed doubts in view of strong lobbying by the LTTE with some EU member countries, particularly in the Scandinavian region.

Would objections by one or two countries lead to a unanimous consensus not being reached?

Foreign Ministry officials in Colombo remain confident it would not happen. The Tamil diaspora in European countries have been told by the LTTE to carry out protest demonstrations tomorrow outside national parliaments in the countries they live across Europe against the possible ban.

Another significant event in the coming week is the Tokyo meeting of the Donor Co-chairs of the peace process. They comprise countries of the European Union, United States, Japan and Norway. They are expected to examine the current stalemate in the peace process. A formal statement is expected to be issued after the meeting.

Government sources say no firm date has yet been fixed for the upcoming Cabinet reshuffle. Whilst President Rajapaksa has decided that a reshuffle should take place, these sources say, he has not made up his mind on whether it should be followed months later with a snap parliamentary poll. Some Ministers have advised Rajapaksa that the time was ideal for a snap poll since both the United National Party and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna were in disarray. They point out both had fared badly during the local polls and the public preference was still for the ruling party, the results of Gampaha and Colombo notwithstanding. A reshuffle will become a reality within the next week or two, the sources added.

The news of the reshuffle had ruffled feathers among some Ministers. At least one of them was in Parliament huddled together with a few former critics of President Rajapaksa -- a group that was fully supportive of the P-TOMs (post tsunami operational management structure) which former President Chandrika Kumaratunga wanted to offer the LTTE.

In a corner in the lobby they were talking in whispers about shortcomings of the Rajapaksa administrations and the President's apparent lack of a sense of urgency in taking decisions. When another Minister, a loyalist of Rajapaksa approached, the conversation ended.

The whispering campaign against the Rajapaksa administration, and especially from within its own ranks, is not a good thing, and usually greater paranoia on the part of the numero ono is what follows.

The President's security officials have driven a sense of fear into the President's household and sealed off roads leading to both, Temple Trees in Kollupitiya and President's House in the Fort, for quite a distance.

This exercise must balance the needs of the President's safety with that of the need to prevent him from being insulated from the public.

The fact that the incumbent President has had to face this dilemma within only the first six months of his tenure, is bound to take much of the wind off his sails, especially if an election was scheduled in the coming months.