| Political Column | ||||||
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| Political
landscape looks blurred That President Kumaratunga has to engage in some political tight-rope walk is an understatement. On the one hand, she has to contend with an increasingly edgy guerrilla group in the north and east which is winding up its faithful. On the other, she has her coalition partner, the JVP putting up posters against the guerrillas, desperate to hold on to their faithful. With the same two hands she has to juggle, on this tight-rope, with winning over the JHU - and the CWC - to obtain a majority in Parliament where her UPFA government is a lame duck, not forgetting the mundane things of tackling dengue, police promotions etc., and doing routine chores of a Head of State. Arguably, the north-east conflict is priority number one, but unfortunately, the UPFA government does not speak with one voice. When the new government was unable to muster a majority on day one of the Parliament, having lost the vote for the Speaker, President Kumaratunga saw the writing on the wall. That same night she telephoned Norwegian Prime Minister, Kjell Magne Bondevik in Oslo and re-invited the Norwegians to jump-start the peace process. The Norwegians came, as if reluctantly, and at the Presidential House in Nuwara-Eliya, President Kumaratunga told Vidar Helgessen and Erik Solheim that she wanted them back on the peace track - " notwithstanding the JVP". Whatever the JVP may say, she knew that it was imperative to keep the peace with the LTTE, if she was to govern at all. The mood then was so upbeat that the UPFA boasted the LTTE had agreed to talk peace with no conditions. It was ready to sit down at the conference table at any date and time convenient to the UPFA Government. Or so the Sri Lankans were made to believe. But that boast was to be shortlived. The sought and obtained recognition that the LTTE was the sole representative of the Tamil people. That no doubt was a boost to the LTTE claim that the Tamil people would, during the April 2 parliamentary elections, endorse that sole representation. That is not all. They said the Tamil people had also endorsed, by voting to office candidates of the Tamil National Alliance that they would only settle for an Interim Self Governing Authority for the North and East. The demand for an ISGA was thus made. If that became a pre condition, subsequent events added to the list. After Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan alias "Colonel" Karuna reneged on Prabharakan, the demand for ISGA gave way to the Karuna issue. The LTTE wanted that issue settled first. The series of purported killings of cadres loyal to the Wanni by pro Karuna elements was too much to stomach. It was holding up efforts by the LTTE to restore normaley and regain full military control in the east - a sine qua non if the LTTE were to continue with its claim that they are the sole representative of the Tamil people. If this situation is confusing enough, utterances by various UPFA leaders expressing varied views on the ethnic issue has complicated the matter further. Joining the repertoire last week was Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva who said ISGA cannot be discussed on its own. The matter had to be taken up together with issues related to a final settlement. By chipping in his own views, Minister Jeyaraj Fernandopulle, seems to have raised that all important question of collective Cabinet responsibility. If he concurred with de Silva it was to go public with what transpired during talks between Prime Minister, Mahinda Rajapakse and Indian Premier, Manmohan Singh. He said during talks, the Indian Premier had agreed to make available to the Sri Lanka Navy an offshore patrol vessel. And now, seeing the predicament within the UPFA, the opposition UNF has sought to exploit the situation. In a statement issued this week, the former ruling party has asked the question, knowing the answer too well, whether Tilvin Silva is the spokesman for the Alliance government. They have called for a common position, and a strategy from the government and asked that the country not be pushed towards war. It is not only from the JVP that noises are now beginning to be heard. More and more Cabinet Ministers are joining the fray. So are top officials. As if this cacophony is not enough to send mixed signals, a new pocket powerhouse of sorts, the Peace Secretariat has emerged with ex-diplomat Jayantha Dhanapala even upgrading his own designation from Director General -to well, you guessed it, Mr. Secretary General. The organizations structure of the Peace Secretariat or SCOPP itself has been changed making one wonder whether it has emerged as yet another ministry. The composition includes not merely the operational staff but also a Director for Economic Affairs, perhaps the fourth or even more of such designations. Such offices already exist in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Trade. and even in the Central Bank. The cacophony aside, the deteriorating rapport between the UPFA and LTTE leadership has led to an SOS response from Nrway. Special Envoy Erik Solheim, just married is enjoying an extended honeymoon in China. Hence Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgessen arrives in Colombo today in what is easily the most difficult mission for the Norwegians since they resumed their facilitatory role under the UPFA Government. His role this time is not to talk about an agenda or dates to resume peace talks. It is explicitly focused on keeping the peace process on track. The too many warnings the LTTE has been issuing is too ominous. Their mood is reflected in an editorial in the LTTE's official organ, Viduthalai Puligal (Liberation Tigers). An English translation has been posted in the official LTTE Peace Secretariat website. Highlights of this official view relate a grim story: "Confusing and conflicting views of President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and the instability of her government together have placed the peace process and the conducive environment built over time at grave risk. "Liberation Tigers have unambiguously made known to the world, the Political modalities necessary to make the peace process meaningful. This step of the LTTE was based on bitter past experience and the desire to ensure that negotiations do not get disrupted in between. This step was taken by the LTTE painstakingly and in a reasonable manner, paying meticulous attention to the drafting of the proposals. "The government has, however, not shown a positive response to the LTTE neither has it rejected the proposals in its totality. Instead, the government comes out with conflicting statements from time to time, a step we believe as a tactic to buy time. The president has, in a public meeting, said that the peace talks should be conducted on the basis of the 'package' she put out in 1994. She has further said that a consultative committee comprising of parliamentarians should be appointed to take forward the peace process. "This 'package' that the President refers to, has been already rejected by the Tamil people and packaged by them for posterity. Trying to rejuvenate it, after ten years, is not going to be of any use. It is frustrating to find that the President is trying to establish another procrastinating entity while structures already established in this context remain static and unhelpful. "Making confusion confounded is the stance of President's constituent partners in the Government, the JVP, that a referendum be held in the Sinhalese electorates. These do not augur well for the peace process and not at all conducive for the recommencement of the peace talks. On the contrary, they tend to reflect the reluctance of the government and ground reality that the government is not strong enough to take forward the peace process with sincerity and commitment. "In one meeting the President proclaims a certain view on the peace process and strange enough she refutes it in another meeting. The president's partner JVP proclaims still another view and goes at length to say that the President has accepted the JVP view. A JVP leader goes on record that the TNA legislators should be chased out of the assembly, an expression of naked racialism and supremacist thinking. "All the chauvinistic majoritarian forces working overtime, are engaged in a vicious propaganda against the ISGA proposals submitted by the LTTE. JVP takes the lead in this and the Sinhalese media too does its part in the business of racial-hatred mongering. The political landscape thus looks convoluted. The Sinhalese electorate, mostly in the rural areas, is fed with this poisonous racial-hatred by the JVP. Having rejected the LTTE stand on the peace process, the JVP has already commenced its propaganda for war. They boldly tell the people that the President has endorsed their view. "Paradoxically, the government while lethargic in its peace initiatives and acting in bad faith when it comes to respecting the CFA, wants to portray a peace environment to the international community. For the Tamil people it is a firm NO whether it be peace, development, resettlement or rehabilitation. They are refused the right to part with their refugee status. They have no peace today neither have they hope for tomorrow. "The Liberation Tigers do have a moral responsibility to take on board the Tamil psyche as it is today in the context of the peoples' fear and suspicion as to whether there are subtle moves on the government side to defeat Tamil national uprising by the 'peace trap', having failed to achieve same through military means. "Time is fast running out. The LTTE is prepared to wait patiently to negotiate and resolve the Tamil national question. But if the government has a hidden agenda to protract the peace process and restage a game of deception again, the Tamil people are not prepared to bear it anymore. This thinking pattern of the Tamil people, a most reasonable one at that, should be understood in the right perspective by the government and the international community." Notwithstanding the bold assertions of the Government, if one is to go by the LTTE's own, official view, the writing is on the wall. It could not have come at a worst time for the UPFA. The armed forces are not in a full state of battle preparedness. Our Defence Correspondent reveals in the opposite page the latest threat to the Trincomalee Harbour, the life line of some 40,000 troops and soldiers in the Jaffna peninsula. What is shocking is that the LTTE had during the period of the ceasefire developed a capability to put a stop to all naval activity in the Trincomalee port within minutes. The armed forces have not received their bare necessities. If President Kumaratunga took over the defence portfolio from the UNF on November 4, last year, and pleaded that the national security situation was fast deteriorating, she seems to have done little or nothing as the disturbing situation in Trincomalee shows. That is just one glaring example among the many omissions and commissions to national security interests. Therefore an entire nation watches in trepidation. The billion dollar question is whether Sri Lanka is inching towards a fragile but uneasy peace or is on the brink of war. The answer is not too far off. JVP
drops its 'Indian expansionism' theory The important development last week was Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse's official visit to India and what followed thereafter. This was Mr. Rajapakse's first visit overseas since assuming office. He was accompanied by ministers Jeyaraj Fernandopulle, and Anura Kumara Dissanayake. According to media reports the visit was of tremendous success. The meeting with Sonia Gandhi has been a remarkable experience to the Prime Minister as well as the other two ministers. Sonia Gandhi paid the Prime Minister a visit at his hotel where he was accommodated. The enigmatic leader of the Congress has almost become a cult figure after she led her party to an emphatic victory at the recently held Indian general elections. She is also the most protected lady in South Asia even ahead of our own Chandrika Kumaratunga. When Prime Minister Rajapakse met with Congress Leader Sonia Gandhi, he is reported to have said "you made a huge sacrifice" referring to her refusal to accept the post of Prime Minister she had responded saying "I didn't sacrifice anything I just did what the people wanted". This goes to demonstrate the political maturity of the Indian politician. The meeting with the Finance minister P. Chidambaram was important in that the Indian finance minister agreeing to review the Double Taxation Avoidance Treaty with Sri Lanka. What transpired at the meetings with the Prime Minister and the President have been crucial and details of which still remain confidential. Premiers report on talks with Indian leaders is said to be before the cabinet. Talks on security as well as the national question were high on the agenda. The JVP seems very happy about this visit. The views they express now marks a paradigm shift in this earlier attitude India. The party denounced any Indian intervention in Lankan affairs. They called it "Indian Expansionism" theory. What is of importance for the JVP is what Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said about the Interim Self Government proposal. He did not see an interim administration as a solution to the crisis but stresses on talks for a final settlement. The JVP believes in a similar line of thinking for the crisis. As new as minister Dissanayake was to his job he had to be guided through the protocol involved. The Indian government had officially invited the Prime Minister on July 14th and the invitation was accepted the following day. In a strategic move the program agenda was kept a secret by officials at Temple Trees till the day of his departure. All media houses received a letter from the Prime Ministers secretary saying that self -sponsored personnel could join the official party on the tour. Thus it became most inexpensive tour made by a minister lately. Prime Minister Rajapakse had discouraged heavy expenditure for media coverage. Reportedly some State media institutions, did not welcome this move - leading to a boycott by certain media men of a state media institution of a dinner hosted by the Prime Minister at Temple Trees after his Indian visit. Three media personnel of this institution have fired a letter to the PM on this matter. The head of this institution was for a short time media secretary to Mahinda Rajapakse when he was opposition leader. Such internal contradictions in the government apparatus could cause untold damage to the government especially as it has suffered several setbacks since coming into office. |
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