Situation Report


A mother wails before her son’s portrait during this week’s LTTE “Maveerar (Heroes) Week” observances. Pic by Sinniah Gurunathan	This week’s portrait of LTTE leader Prabhakaran with pistol on the ready. Behind him is a cut out of the so-called “Eelam”

Tiger arms build-up: Prabha says no, others say yes
Twenty months after a ceasefire, Tiger guerrilla leader Velupillai Prabhakaran spoke as never before last Thursday. "We have no alternative other than to secede and form an independent state," he warned in his "Maveerar (Heroes) Day" address.

That is if the rights of his people are denied, reconciliation is opposed and if what he calls conditions of oppression continue. In such an event, he wants to invoke "the right to self determination." In fact in his demand for an Interim Self Governing Authority (ISGA), he has made provision for an "independent Election Commission." That is to conduct "free and fair" elections in the North-East.

How could he warn of secession without being militarily strong? Even if a threat to secede is to be carried out, would any Government committed to uphold the nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity remain silent? Mr Prabhakaran knows well enough that it would lead to war. And even if he denies to the whole world, that is the only reason why he has during the last 20 months of ceasefire continued to strengthen the guerrilla military machine.

The question of military preparations was raised by the Government during early stages of the peace talks in Thailand. Guerrilla peace negotiators offered two reasons. Armed forces were doing the same. There was no provision under the Ceasefire Agreement to prevent them from doing so.

Even if Mr. Prabhakaran denied the preparations, his battle hardened "commander" for the Batticaloa district, "Col. Karuna" sounded a different warning. He told a "Maveerar" rally in Batticaloa last Tuesday 'If war breaks out due to Sri Lanka President's actions the country will have to face devastating consequences." He said politics in the South "make us apprehensive of the future of the peace process. We will not be surprised if war is thrust on us again."

Almost the entirety of the guerrilla leader's address last Thursday, after turning 49 years, was devoted to two matters. First was with developments after the Ceasefire Agreement of February 22, 2002. Then he went on to deal with the political crisis in the aftermath of President Kumaratunga's takeover of Defence, Interior and Mass Communications portfolios.

Unlike his previous "Maveerar" day addresses, Mr. Prabhakaran began on a note that saw him in accord with most Sri Lankans, or many in the world. There is no coherent structure in the form of a Government in the South or as he calls it "the Sinhala nation," he said. "The power of the state is torn between the heads of two most powerful Sinhala political parties. The Presidency and Parliament are in conflict with each other," he declared.

But the discordant note came when he said "there is absolutely no truth in President Kumaratunga's accusation that we are preparing for war by procuring weapons, recruiting on a large scale and strengthening our military machine." He asserted that "I wish to deny categorically that there is any truth in these allegations. These false accusations are levelled against us to tarnish the credibility of our liberation organisation and to disrupt the peace process."

Even if he has chosen to accuse only President Kumaratunga of saying so, the fact remains that she is not the only leader who believes that the guerrillas are strengthening their military machine.

On October 8, former Defence Minister, Tilak Marapana, told Parliament "when we entered into a ceasefire, our aim was to solve the problems we had with the LTTE not by the use of force but through negotiations. That is not to say we should tolerate anything and everything and allow the LTTE to get stronger and stronger and be suddenly surprised by an attack which we are unable to withstand…"

Speaking more pointedly on developments in the east he said "it is true that the LTTE strength in the area surrounding the Trincomalee harbour have increased during the ceasefire period. I do perceive this as an increased threat…"

Hard on the heels of that statement followed the three day visit of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to India. A joint Statement issued after talks with Premier Atal Bihari Vajpayee spoke of an accord reached for Sri Lanka and India to conclude a defence co-operation agreement at the earliest. The occasion also saw a declaration from India that it will continue to maintain an abiding interest in the security of Sri Lanka. All this, coming a long time after a ceasefire, was indeed significant.

Hence, it is not only President Kumaratunga who has voiced concerns over guerrillas strengthening their military machine. Former Defence Minister Marapana has publicly declared the fact when he spoke in Parliament. And Premier Wickremesinghe's actions in seeking a Defence Co-operation Agreement with India further belie the urgency of this situation. So does the abiding interest declared by India.

It is not only the preparations during the ceasefire that have sought to strengthen the guerrilla military machine. Even the interim authority (ISGA) which the LTTE is seeking contains proposals that seek to further enhance their military capability. Take for example the demand for ISGA to control marine and offshore resources of the seas adjacent to North-East in addition to the power to "regulate access."

This includes the Palk Straits where, at present, India and Sri Lanka share a maritime boundary. This demand clearly makes way for the sea going arm of the guerrillas, the Sea Tigers, to gain legitimacy and dominance in the seas off the North-East. Such a development would see the emergence of a third navy in the region, besides that of India and Sri Lanka. This goes beyond a mere strengthening of a military machine.
If that is achieved, the LTTE will become the only entity in this world to have a Navy. All others who possess a Navy are Sovereign States.

The many facets of the strengthening of LTTE's military machine have been revealed from time to time in these columns. It has not only included a stepped up recruitment of cadres after the ceasefire. There has been smuggling in of military hardware. A political and military infrastructure that existed in the Wanni has now been extended to the east with the help of the UNF Government.

Mr. Prabhakaran said "it is true that we have been recruiting on a small scale since we needed manpower for our administrative structures." He avoids all reference to recruitment of children, a matter that has been officially acknowledged by the UNICEF and other international agencies. It is well known that these children were not involved in helping "administrative structures." They had been trained to handle weapons and were very much a part of the LTTE armed strength.

A group of children were released at a much-publicized ceremony in Kilinochchi. However, it later transpired that more children were forcibly recruited in the Batticaloa district. During the "Maveerar" day address Mr. Prabhakaran admitted "our merchant ships were attacked and destroyed by the navy in international waters." This is the first time that the LTTE leader has officially admitted that his organisation ran merchant ships. What were they carrying? Where is their cargo manifest and who did the cargo belong to? To which ports were they sailing to and from where?

He was referring to the Sri Lanka Navy's sinking of two ships belonging to the LTTE. One was in March and the other in June this year. The Navy said they were carrying military hardware. A third vessel said to be carrying huge engines, artillery shells, missiles and other military items got away. This was after a member of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) telephoned his head office from one of the Navy gun boats heading to detect the suspect ship. The head office in turn had checked with Tiger guerrilla leadership in Kilinochchi.

This led to President Kumaratunga's request to Norwegian Premier Kjell Magne Bondevik to recall the head of the SLMM retired Maj. Gen. Tryggve Tellefsen. He was recalled to Oslo for consultations. It is unlikely he will return to his post.
These developments have now spurned the Sri Lanka Navy into action. The Commander of the Navy, Vice Admiral Sandagiri is busy with detailed plans to step up the Navy's preparedness to meet any threats. His Chief of Staff, Rear Admiral Mohan Wijewickrema was locked in intense discussions this week with Rear Admiral Sanjiv Bhasin, Assistant Chief of Staff of the Indian Navy who is in charge of Personnel and Human Resource Development. India has increased its slots for training of Sri Lankan armed forces personnel. Assistance to the Sri Lanka Navy to enhance its capabilities through training is a priority area.

However, since the take over of the defence portfolio, President Kumaratunga's pre occupation with matters political has somewhat neglected areas concerning security. Many cannot be spelt out for obvious reasons. That includes the all important area of intelligence where chaos, confusion and internecine rivalry now reigns. Like the UNF Government, the fact that the PA under whom the subject of defence has now been brought under, continues to ignore this very vital area, to say the least, is most reprehensible.

Hence it is not only national security interests that are placed in jeopardy. As publicly declared, if the PA is committed to uphold the Ceasefire Agreement and the work done by the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), the need for a proper functioning of intelligence services becomes essential. Similarly even President Kumaratunga's offer to Premier Wickremesinghe for a partnership of all political parties for the peace process makes the need for better intelligence even more essential. That is if she wants to ensure not only her efforts materialise but also to protect it if and when the move becomes a reality. Besides these, there are many other areas that affect national security interests.

There are also other matters which are in the public domain. Like for example the most important operational area in the country, the Jaffna peninsula. The present Security Forces Commander in Jaffna, Maj. Gen. Sarath Fonseka relinquishes office tomorrow. He is now busy visiting military camps in the area doing his farewell calls and will return to Colombo to take over as Commandant of the Sri Lanka Volunteer Force (SLVF).
Although he was tipped to keep this post and was to be named as Security Forces Commander, North, the move is not likely to materialise now. This is said to be on the grounds that he cannot hold both positions.

However, there have been several precedents where dual positions have been held by high ranking Army officers in the past. Major General Janaka Perera who was Chief of Staff in 2000 also held the post of Operations Commander North. In 1999, Maj. Gen. Neil Dias who was Commandant of the Sri Lanka Volunteer Force was also Security Forces Commander Wanni.

In 1998, Major General Srilal Weerasuriya, Chief of Staff was Overall Operations Commander for North-East. Thereafter, Maj. Gen. Asoka Jayawardena, who was Chief of Staff, served a short stint as Overall Operations Commander. In 1995 Maj. Gen. Rohan de S. Daluwatte was Chief of Staff and Overall Operations for North-East.
Although there is no post of Security Forces Commander, North, two other similar positions now exist. They are Security Forces Commander East held by Major General Nanda Mallawaratchi and Security Forces Commander Wanni held by Major General Susil Chandrapala.

A new Security Forces Commander for Jaffna is also likely to be reviewed by the Ministry of Defence. At present Major General P.S.B Kulatunga has been named for the post. Currently he is Acting Director General-General Staff at Army Headquarters.
Another development is a move by the Ministry of Defence to call upon the controversial Defence Review Committee to continue its work. The Committee comprised former Defence Secretary Austin Fernando (Chairman), Charitha Ratwatte, Secretary to Treasury and retired Lt. Gen. Denis Perera. Since the Ministry of Defence is now under President Kumaratunga and Mr. Cyril Herath has been named as Defence Secretary, Mr Fernando ceases to be a member.

Though there were three members in the Committee, it was only Lt. Gen. Perera who was carrying out the work of the Committee. Since being appointed, the UNF Government formulated three different sets of draft laws based on the Committee's recommendations to deprive President Kumaratunga's powers as Commander-in-Chief. Besides this, the role of the Committee has come in for severe criticism on the grounds that its work has not been broad based and a wider section of those in the security establishment or the public have not been consulted in their day to day work.
Moreover, it was focusing to downsize the Army and find placements for personnel in the UN Peace Keeping Force. Another move was to drastically prune down the present dependence on four per cent of the nation's GNP.

The Sunday Times learns that the "Committee" was told to continue their work after Lt. Gen. Denis Perera sought clarification of their future role from Defence Secretary, Cyril Herath. Since taking over the Defence portfolio, President Kumaratunga has been trying hard to keep track of the ground situation in operational areas. However, most of her time appears to be taken up by urgent political developments. In the process, some priority matters relating to defence have delayed her attention.

Last week armed forces commanders gave her a detailed brief on the prevailing situation in the Batticaloa district. This was after Chief of Defence Staff and Army Commander; Lt. Gen. Lionel Balagalle flew to Batticaloa in the company of commanders of the Navy (Vice Admiral Sandagiri) and Air Force (Air Vice Marshal Donald Perera). She is expected to receive a similar briefing on the ground situation in the north shortly.

From the briefing to her on security developments in the Batticaloa district, President Kumaratunga is now better aware that Mr. Prabhakaran's claims that he is not strengthening his military machine is not true. Similarly, the position will be further confirmed when she hears developments that have been taking place in the north.
Hence, after taking over the defence portfolio she cannot continue to ignore important developments or let critical issues in the hands of those who are yet to acquire experience.

Their cashing personal IOUs or only engaging in public relations exercises simply will not help. By the time they learn, there would be more damage done. To do so will mean that only the defence portfolio has changed hands. And not the crucial issue of checking a fast changing military balance. That is by no means to suggest going to war. Like the LTTE, it only means preparing for war whilst talking peace.

That is not all. There are many other matters that remain to be sorted out, like procurements. Like in the past, the deals are going through and the commissions are being worked out. Otherwise, the take over of the defence portfolio would be like changing pillows for a headache.

Now that she holds the defence portfolio, there is a greater responsibility in the hands of President Kumaratunga. If she continues to ignore that responsibility, it might as well have been better left in the hands of the UNF without making things much worse.

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