The speculation on who is going where, how many and how much is centred on the highly-charged 19th amendment which was presented to parliament on September 19 at the auspicious time of 3.12 p.m. amidst sneering by the JVP that the superstitious Justice Minister W. J. M. Lokubandara was still within the 'Rahu' time.

The proverbial 'kusukusu' in the parliament kitchens and elsewhere ranged from 20 to three. Government leaders claimed that upto 20 PA MPs were ready to vote for the 19th amendment and thus give a two thirds majority to strip the President of her powers to dissolve parliament. But only the former House Leader and senior minister Richard Pathirana was speaking out openly, saying he would not change his mind even if his dead father came to parliament and told him to do so. The other senior dissident, A. H. M. Fowzie, was characteristically here and there. On Thursday, he reportedly said he had not yet made up his mind amidst speculation that his politician son Nauzer was trying to settle the father's dispute with the President.

Just as the government was confident of 20, opposition sources were convinced that the number of breakaways would be only about 3. So intense is the speculation and sense of uncertainty in parliament that it is the main topic on the talking menu even at the parliament restaurant, taking precedence over peace talks and the ICC business cricket tournament.

But whatever the concerns of the MPs for personal safety, gain or glory, media attention was very much on the peace talks. So much so that the first de-facto media conference was held on the flight to Thailand last Saturday with an unprecedented number of Sri Lankan journalists firing question after question at ministers G. L. Peiris and Milinda Moragoda. The ministers were quite open and accommodative.

The Sri Lankan negotiating team reached Thailand on Saturday night while the LTTE negotiators flew in on Sunday evening. One of the LTTE negotiators, Dr. Jay Maheshwaran, came to Sri Lanka some weeks ago and stayed at Oberoi before flying to Bangkok on Sunday.

Amidst warm and generous Thai hospitality in the Sattahip naval base, the talks also were much warmer than expected. Initially, the first round of talks was to take place the day after the ceremonial opening but the two parties got down to the dialogue the same evening and were seen to be relaxed and accommodative.

The Sri Lankan journalists wanted a separate news conference with LTTE chief negotiator Anton Balasingham and this was readily arranged by Minister Moragoda. A helicopter and an ambulance stood by for Dr. Balasingham who is known to be suffering from a kidney ailment complicated by diabetes. Sri Lankan delegation sources said Dr. Balasingham, while being friendly and open, appeared to get tired easily and could not go on negotiating for more than three hours. The Lankan negotiators thus reportedly did lots of the talking with LTTE lawyer Vishwanath Rudrakumar. While the attitude and environment was easy-going and casual, the Sri Lankan team also meant business.

Soon after the first round of talks ended with unexpected success and a surprise LTTE announcement on giving up the Eelam demand, Ministers Peiris and Moragoda flew to New York. There they first briefed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe who was on what appears to be a highly successful tour, addressing the United Nations General Assembly and meeting some 200 CEOs in the world's financial capital.

The two ministers joined the prime minister in urging the American business community to back the peace process in Sri Lanka by throwing in massive investments. Norway's chief negotiator Vidar Helgesen also joined them in New York, calling for world aid so that Sri Lanka could emerge as an Asian Tiger. The imagery was striking.

From New York, Prof. Peiris was flying to Canada for more business and other work there while Minister Moragoda flew to London again for business, trade and aid.

As the peace talks began in Thailand on Monday, the SLFP also held what for it was an equally crucial central committee meeting.

Former minister Susil Premajayanth set the trend by saying the proposed 19th amendment was the first step towards undermining the President and the PA and calling on the party to stand against it unanimously and vehemently. President Kumaratunga backed his appeal saying she was aware of potential dissidents or traitors but vowing she would do everything necessary to protect the party.

Anuradhapura's Shantha Premaratne also pushed for tough disciplinary action against those who violate party policy or discipline and he hammered home his point by looking straight at Mr. Pathirana who, however, did not stare back.

When a hands-up vote was called for against the 19th amendment, Mr. Pathirana and ex-minister Jeyaraj Fernandopulle did not raise theirs. Significantly, Ronnie de Mel raised his hands though it is widely known that it is his feet, which are in the balance. While a large degree of unanimity appeared to emerge at this SLFP meeting, the undertones and undercurrents were also unmistakable.

Two days later at a meeting of SLFP district organizers, the President was furious, though not because reports from Thailand that the peace talks were going well. She hammered out hard at dissidents and double dealers. Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse tried to calm her down saying there were no worms, rats or dogs among them and the party could work out its strategy with its loyal MPs. Notable absentees at the district organisers' meetings were party spokesmen Mangala Samaraweera and Sarath Amunugama.

PA General Secretary D. M. Jayaratne and potential dissident Mahindanada Aluthgamage were present on Wednesday. The President threw a question at Mr. Jayaratne asking what the situation was and his response was negative if not gloomy.

Mr. Jayaratne proposed that to turn the tide, the party could shift strategy and propose an alternative 19th amendment instead of just opposing the government proposal. But the President did not seem to be keen, insisting that most of the MPs won because of the party ticket and they were duty-bound to be loyal.

Mr. Jayaratne also pressed his argument. He said most of the MPs were apparently looking at personal security. After two general elections in two years, they were not ready, willing or able to face another one. He urged the President to look at those realities. But she was in no mood to compromise and she hit out angrily.

The crisis had aggravated after the failure of an earlier exercise for the President to personally meet the MPs and discuss their grievances or aspirations. The method had been proposed by Mr. Rajapakse who said he believed that many MPs had serious problems, which needed to be addressed. The President agreed and appointments were given. But what took place was a calamity largely because the President is still having major difficulties with time management. According to reports, W. D. J. Seneviratne was given an appointment to meet the President but he waited 90 minutes and she did not turn up. The next case was worse. Bandula Yalegama was given an appointment; he waited for three hours and went away dejected if not angry after he was asked to come on another day.

The time crisis came up at the last cabinet meeting also. It had been scheduled for 6 p.m. at the Republic Building with the Prime Minister and three top ministers being out of the country. The Presidential Secretariat had sent a message to the Cabinet Office saying that because of another meeting at Avissawella, the President would like the Cabinet meeting to start at 5. 30 p.m. This was agreed to and all ministers were told to come because of speculation that the President would come with an alternative proposal for the wholesale abolition of the executive presidential system. The ministers came early and waited. With the chair empty, they decided that deputy leader Karu Jayasuriya should take the chair. Then they waited again till another message came from the Presidential Secretariat saying Her Excellency had already gone to Avissawella with or without her important proposal.

With the major proposals not on the table the ministers focused attention on one of their privileges - whether it was better to hire vehicles or lease them. Ministers Ravi Karunanayake and Rajitha Senaratne often bound together when hammering out at the President found themselves on different seats. Dr. Senaratne was for leasing while Mr. Karunanayake citing a CWE example said it was better to hire. Anyway, it was largely a waste of time and the matter was put off till the Prime Minister returns.

Any way time appears to be running out for the President. Her options are limited because the UNF has command and control over parliament and thus over vital finances. Ex-minister Jeyaraj Fernandopulle perhaps summed up the situation when he said that if the President did not act with wisdom, the party would split.

Based on the political column of the Sunday Lankadeepa

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