The Sunday Times Economic Analysis                 By the Economist  

Economic reconstruction to strengthen peace
Economic reconstruc tion and humanitarian issues have been placed at the forefront of the phased peace process. No doubt these were the least contentious issues and they have been the easiest first step of what has been described as "a step by step process".

The two issues of humanitarian rehabilitation and economic reconstruction are inextricably connected owing to the aftermath of the enormous damage to physical infrastructure and the vast number of persons unable to live and earn a livelihood in the North and parts of the East.

The cost of the reconstruction would be huge. No precise estimates are still available. It would also vary with the type of reconstruction that is envisaged. It is recognised that the reconstruction effort cannot be undertaken with the resources of the country alone. In fact the debilitated and weak state of the economy precludes any possibility of substantial government resources for the reconstruction. An international effort is undoubtedly needed. The international community has for a number of years pledged and reiterated their willingness to help in the reconstruction effort.

They have promised large sums that would be available once peace is achieved. Some countries have very recently promised fresh sums for particular purposes as well. There is enough international goodwill and promises of substantial aid. The difficulty lies in the foreign donors wanting clear evidence of a durable peace. Without evidence of a durable peace donors would be unwilling to spend large sums of their tax payers money for a reconstruction that could only be followed by further war and destruction.
Did the outcome of the peace talks provide adequate evidence of an emerging durable peace? The most hopeful signs came from Anton Balasingham's statement that the LTTE was not asking for a separate state outside Sri Lanka's national integrity. What they now wanted was the devolution of power for the Tamil people to run their own affairs, in what has been continuously described by the LTTE as the "Tamil homeland".
There were other statements however that diluted the contents of this and once again created suspicions. These we will not discuss, as we ourselves would like to stress the positive aspect of the talks and take the peace process further. The LTTE position of not wanting a separate state if sufficient devolution of power is permitted within a unitary state must be strengthened and taken further.

The peace loving Tamil people must hail this new position of dropping the claim for a non-viable separate state that would surely lead to bloodshed and misery for the Tamil people. The donor community has a right to require evidence of a durable peace. They must push the LTTE towards making it very clear that they are for national integrity. The government has reiterated that the devolution of authority for the North and East is acceptable.

The details need to be worked out, but the possibility of a settlement is in sight if these positions are clear. The donor community that requires evidence of a durable peace has a right to ask the LTTE to make an even clearer statement of this fact before commitment of substantial aid.

The commitment of aid itself could be made a catalyst in the peace process. It would also reduce the southern discomfort about Eelam and thereby enable the government to proceed with the next steps in devolution. The Norwegian Minister made a plea for the international community to commence their aid for the reconstruction, now that there was evidence of a positive march towards peace. The donors could perhaps commit an initial tranche of their aid on the basis of their perception that first steps have been taken towards peace and insist on further evidence at the second round at the end of October. This would be of assistance in the economic reconstruction as well as on speeding up the peace process. In as much as a quick resolution of the problem is unrealistic, an excessively dragged out process may be counter- productive and should be avoided.

The economic priorities are clear. The rebuilding and improvement of infrastructure would be the first priority. The second would be the vitalising of economic activities that languished owing to the war. Foremost among these would be the fishing industry. The rehabilitation of fishing should be also accompanied with a degree of modernisation and improvement in technology. Agriculture too would have to be developed on new lines with emphasis on high value crops, agricultural processing and must look to crops with an export potential. The adoption of new methods and technology that would enhance productivity must be an underlying strategy.

Education that was the pride of the North would be an area for developing excellence and providing skilled personnel for rapid development of the nation. Once again there needs to be a new emphasis and priorities in education and skill development to meet the needs of rapid Industrialisation. The progress of the reconstruction effort would require more evidence of a durable peace. The first signs of peace must be consolidated in the coming months to make the essential reconstruction of the war-torn areas a reality.


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