The commissioning of the Upper Kotmale plant has been postponed not for the first time. Earlier it was the objections of environmentalists that resulted in the postponement. This time it appears that a constituent party of the government itself has objections. When that problem would be resolved is not clear. The conflicts within the highest ranks of the government are such that it has been unable to even appoint a chairman for the CEB.

The fact is that we have come to the end of large hydropower generation. Small hydropower plants could certainly supplement our electricity supply, but the real answer lies elsewhere. With all the attention on rainfall, there is still a public misconception that the country is mainly dependent on hydro electricity. That era has in fact passed. We have moved away from a predominantly hydro-based electricity generation to one of being increasingly dependent on thermal power. Hydroelectricity provides less than 50 percent of our power requirements, while thermal power accounted for 45 per cent of our electricity.

Other sources supplement these two main methods. In the future our dependence on thermal power and other sources of electricity would increase. This also implies increase in the costs of electricity as well as fluctuations and vulnerability to international prices of crude oil.

The costs of energy are at the core of the issue. By far the cheapest source of electricity generation is coal power. Coal power generation is estimated to cost less than Rs four per unit of electricity, compared with a thermal cost of over Rs six per unit. The highest cost of electricity generation is of gas turbine using diesel that is estimated to cost nearly Rs 10 per unit.

Besides cost, it is the coal power plants that could provide substantial power. Compared to the Upper Kotmale plant that is expected to generate 150 MWs of electricity, each of the coal power plants could generate 300 MWs of power. Three such plants could meet our additional electricity requirements for several years.
As a poor country we can ill afford to lose the opportunity of accessing power through the cheapest source. The environmental concerns have been highly exaggerated. The use of the more environmentally friendly technology, as well as less polluting types of coal could diminish the environmental concerns. The correct location and siting of the plant would also minimise the risks of pollution. There is no doubt that the economic imperatives demand a need to proceed with the coal power plants that could generate about 1000 MWs of additional power within four to five years.

The environmental issue must be looked at from a balanced perspective. The seriousness of the power crisis should not blind us to serious environmental concerns. Equally important is recognition that developmental needs of the country require a degree of compromise on environmental pollution and damage. Minimising the adverse impacts is undoubtedly the only realistic solution.

It must however be recognised that there are some environmental damages that are irreversible and affect future generations. It would certainly be sad if the Upper Kotmale hydroelectric plant were to deny future generations the beauty of the waterfalls in the area.

The Minister has assured that this would not be so. We hope he has been advised correctly. The previous government faced a host of problems that did not enable it to proceed with implementing several of the projects that were planned. We hope that is not the case now.

Yet the conflicts within the CEB and the government make us wonder whether we can expect the implementation of the new power projects on time. Have we merely resolved the immediate problem with a little help from the rain gods or are we politically and institutionally capable of implementing the best possible plan for electricity generation? Will we face another serious power crisis in 2005?

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