Ceasefire wisdom
Ceasefires sound sweet to the ear - - particularly
in a war torn country that has not seen peace for a long time. But ceasefires
are also known to be good interregnums to rest the troops, re-train/regroup
and replenish the cadres. Ceasefires are also a time to win international
respectability, as the enemy is lulled into a sense of complacency and
false security in its duration.
The government, buoyed by the recent election success and the Christmas
ceasefire (which, by the way, is not an official communication by the LTTE)
has become so emboldened as to roll up the barrels, re-open the roads in
Colombo and allow those unauthorized hawkers back on the city pavements.
There is a feeling of festivity and celebration in the air - and why not,
as the people deserve a break from the long haul of the seemingly un-ending
war, the war of elections, and the menacing economic crisis that never
seemed to see any hope of ending.
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, starts his innings so to speak
by visiting neighbouring India in a bid to win support for his early peace
bid with the LTTE. India now has the luxury of being seemingly detached
from the Sri Lankan crisis _ having originated and later precipitated it
once upon a time. Of course India is never detached from our crises, though
there is certainly an air of interested aloofness in its current Sri Lanka
policy.
But we feel dutybound to spoil the current mood of seasonal bonhomie
by warning the people of the possible pitfalls on that road to eventual
peace. The Prime Minister, at least so far, seems to have given the right
signals, of being keen to end the conflict through yet another bout of
negotiations. He has also taken a highly methodical approach to management
of the crisis, by establishing three study groups, one of them, to determine
alternate solutions in the event peace talks with the LTTE collapse.
This committee's task would be as important as those others which will
try to forge a way towards peace and rapprochement. It needs to analyze
the Military, Political and Diplomatic inputs based on all previous experiences.
Lessons and events of the past must be put together and analyzed.
All previous dispensations, which negotiated with the LTTE, neglected
the need for a think-tank that monitored and filtered information about
the conduct of this costly war. The national security council, the apex
body which handled the "management'' of the war was so barren in terms
of input with regard to options available, and information and ideas leading
to effective strategy. The propaganda war for instance, was all but lost,
until world events turned things to the governments advantage, and the
Foreign Minister almost single handedly, then made capital out of these
developments and turned things around.
After the bitter experiences of Thimpu (during the J. R. Jayewardene
government), the Hilton talks (Premadasa government), and the Jaffna talks
cum exchange of letters (Chandrika Kumaratunga government) no government
can now be heard to say again " we were taken for a ride by the Tigers.''
It is imperative that the military is kept on attention and alert at
all times. The LTTE must come for talks unconditionally, lest their bona
fides be suspect. But so should the government approach the talks. But
what we say to the Government is "to go with your eyes open, armed with
information, options at your command, your propaganda machinery in place
and hoping for the best but expecting the worst, and keeping the people
informed every step of the way.'' |
