Political Column

President Mahinda Rajapaksa was contemplating how to set about his political agenda for the New Year. It was Christmas/New Year time, he had finished his yuletide celebrations at Temple Trees. His Government had just survived a crucial vote in Parliament on the final day of the month-long budget debate, thanks mainly to his erstwhile coalition partner, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), abstaining from the vote and helping the Government. In the New Year, he needed the backing of the JVP if he was going to wage an all-out war to defeat the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), with a view to a tie-up with the JVP in the event of a snap election in 2008.

Barely hours before that crucial vote, the JVP had struck a hard bargain with the Government - among its demands was to abrogate the 2002 Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) signed between the then United National Party (UNP) Government and the LTTE. There were other demands too, like the cutting down of the jumbo-cabinet.

With most of his ministers abroad, and things quietened down in Colombo except for a side-show by his political side-kick Mervyn Silva at the state-run Rupavahini television station, the President called in two of his most trusted advisers - his brother Defence Secretary Col. (Ret.) Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, and Presidential Secretary Lalith Weeratunge. Former Prime Minister of Pakistan Benazir Bhutto had just been assassinated; the US presidential primary elections were being hotly debated, the Kenyan elections were on, taking much of the attention of the International Community (IC), including India, away from Sri Lanka.

The trio decided that the CFA would be annulled. But how to set about it, was the question. Defence Secretary Col (Ret.) Rajapaksa fired the first salvo with an interview in the state media saying that the CFA ought to be abrogated. He said it was a "joke" and also suggested the banning of the LTTE. The interview revolved around the CFA abrogation saying that a peaceful settlement can be brought about after the military had done its job in paving the way for such a settlement. Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake, however, had to do the formal honours, but the decision had to be carried forward. It was decided that the best man for the job would be Foreign Minister Rohita Bogollagama. Quipped the elder Rajapaksa "meya me wedeta maru…. Dan bayen inne re-shuffle eka gena…A-nisa may weda eyata baarademu… Eya penala dei". ( He's good for this job… must be frightened of a re-shuffle.. therefore, we will entrust this task to him….he will jump and do it").

One participant had remarked; "hebai meya trips tikak nung mayken hadaganiy ara rattata brief karanna kiyala" (But, he will try to go on some trips on account of having to brief this country and that country). The team had a hearty laugh, after which Bogollagama was brought in. Needless to say, Bogollagama jumped at the idea fully supporting the abrogation of the CFA.

Sadly, there was little discussion on how to exactly deal with the IC. There was no plan evinced to deal with the international fallout. As it happened, within hours of the announcement, India announced that her Prime Minister would not be coming for the 60th anniversary of Sri Lanka's Independence next month, the French Foreign Minister cancelled a visit, travel advisories started coming from western countries etc.,

Even the hastily arranged briefing of Colombo-based diplomats, the day after the Government made the formal announcement, saw mostly junior diplomats turning up, not the ambassadors themselves. A wag at the Foreign Office was to remark that there were more Sri Lankan ambassadors and high commissioners holidaying in Colombo present than ambassadors of foreign nations at the meeting. As the events of that period clearly showed a sense of urgency in dealing with the IC, especially the donor Co-Chairs - the United States, India, Japan, member-countries of the EU, and Norway, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs just stayed on the holiday mode.

Unlike many instances before, notably when the tsunami struck during the Christmas period in 2004, there were no instructions for Heads of our Missions abroad holidaying in Colombo to get back to their stations in the respective capitals to which they have been posted and start hectic lobbying before all hell broke loose on the country's credibility.

The fallout of the Government's move to abrogate the February 2002 Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) from coming Wednesday (Jan. 16) continues. The LTTE, the other partner to the CFA, resorted to a transparent ploy of declaring it was "ready to implement every clause" and "respect it 100 per cent." Envoys of the Donor Co-chairs of the Sri Lankan peace process, Nicholas Burns (US), Eric Solheim (Norway), Yasushi Akashi (Japan) etc., had a conference call on Wednesday to determine their next move. They were all disturbed by the developments, but the abrogation of the CFA did not mean the abandonment of the peace process, for whatever that process was worth. These envoys were still in business.

Yesterday, the Co-Chairs issued a statement expressing their "strong concern" about the termination of the 2002 CFA. Once again they said that they believe there is "no military solution" to the conflict in Sri Lanka, and urge a political devolution plan from the Government; all parties to respect international law to protect civilians and allow access by humanitarian aid agencies to populations in need; express concern about the human rights situation; and access to the LTTE for the Co-Chairs and Norway. They have broadly hinted on a wider role for the UN in Sri Lanka; something that is bound to earn the ire of 'patriotic fronts' which see those who make these calls from within Sri Lanka as absolute traitors, mostly in the pay of NGOs.

Japan's Special Envoy to the peace process, Yasushi Akashi scheduled an urgent visit to Sri Lanka. He is arriving in Colombo today for a three-day visit, for talks with Government and Opposition leaders. Japan is Sri Lanka's largest aid donor, and it is keeping a huge cheque to be en-cashed for economic development once peace dawns, but Government high-ups are discussing why the Japanese envoy was rushing here even before the facilitator, Norway sent one.

Against this backdrop, President Rajapaksa ordered security authorities to re-introduce the military and police checkpoints. They were active since Thursday. His Government was busy formulating measures to enforce provisions in the 13th amendment to the Constitution as the nucleus of political proposals to end the ethnic conflict. Opposition leaders were busy telling the international community about their concerns over the abrogation of the CFA.

UNP and Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe met Colombo-based envoys from a number of countries - the US, India, Switzerland, Norway, the EU, Canada and Japan at his Cambridge Place office. Wickremesinghe said it was not only the political process that was under siege, but the entire future of Sri Lanka as a pluralist society was under pressure. He said there were sharp, divergent views on the nature of the State, Religion, Language and the like, but all of it was discussed within the framework of a pluralist society. He referred to attacks on media freedom and the targeting of journalists, and that the possibility of free discussion was fast receding in the country.

In the Opposition but still keeping the Government in office, the JVP welcomed the abrogation of the CFA but vowed to fight any proposals for devolution of power. On the other hand, members of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) were bitterly critical about the Government move. These were some of the significant repercussions arising from the Government doing away with the CFA and stepping up the military campaign against Tiger guerrillas.

Responding a week after the Government's decision to abrogate the CFA, the Tiger guerrillas accused the Government and the military of failing to implement clauses of the CFA. "The LTTE was forced to temporarily withdraw from the peace talks as a result of the failure to implement the CFA 100 per cent, the failure to implement the agreements reached at the peace talks, and the failure to maintain parity of status of one party to the CFA, the LTTE." The guerrillas said they did not withdraw from the CFA even when the Government assassinated the leader of the LTTE peace delegation, S.P. Thamilselvan, in November 2007. In an interview with this newspaper published today, Thamilselvan's successor, B. Nadesan, maintains that the CFA is the basis for a negotiated settlement.

Trying to stick to a CFA, which one has already announced it would abrogate, is like a husband or a wife who had divorced one or the other claiming he or she is still married to the other, says a political analyst. The LTTE stance does give some weightage to Government's critics that they played into the hands of guerrillas by abrogating the CFA. Such critics opine that the 'war on terror' should have continued without the abrogation. Thus, they point out, the Government would have avoided the displeasure of the international community and set out to achieve its declared objectives.

Whilst assassinating politicians or civilians and disowning it, and by declaring adherence to a dead CFA, the guerrillas are simply giving the international community the impression that they are all 'good boys'. That way, any military action will be termed by them as 'defensive' to make the armed forces look like the aggressor. Though it is still too early to conclude outcomes, in the event of defeat, they could still say they lost because they were committed to the CFA. The propaganda value by the claims of adhering to the CFA cannot be underestimated. A corollary of the move is the good climate it creates for the continued existence of expatriate guerrilla sympathisers abroad - a source of considerable income to Kilinochchi's coffers.

In this shaky environment, whether the Donor Co-Chairs will continue to function, or cease to function as a joint entity on Jan. 16 when the CFA ends, is fuelling speculation in diplomatic and political quarters. Japan, however, appears to be taking a somewhat softer and more conciliatory position towards the situation here than are the western powers. Their Special Envoy for the peace process, during his visit, Yasushi Akashi, is to meet both President Rajapaksa and Opposition Leader Wickremesinghe, when he arrives today. Japan's envoy to Colombo Kiyoshi Araki has already invited Wickremesinghe, parliamentarian Ravi Karunanayake and Bradman Weerakoon for dinner on Monday night.

Akashi's focus during talks with President Rajapaksa will be a follow-up of discussions held in Tokyo just last month between the two of them and other Japanese leaders. The Sri Lankan President, on that occasion, spent considerable time explaining how he hoped to formulate political proposals to end the ethnic conflict.

Though the chequebook in his pocket will be less relevant for the visit that begins today, Akashi appears to be trying this time to get both the Government and the Opposition leaders together in a unified approach to tackle the 'ethnic issue'. He begins where the retired armed forces commanders, all of whom received back-dated promotions to a four star General or the equivalent rank, failed. Earlier, attempts by Akashi to visit Kilinochchi for a meeting with LTTE leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran proved futile - explaining the inclusion in yesterday's Co-Chairs statement asking the Government to permit them to meet the LTTE in Kilinochchi.

But weeks earlier, before the fighting escalated, highly placed Tamil political sources said the LTTE leadership was not averse to allowing him to Wanni for a meeting with Prabhakaran. Of course, it was solely for allowing the LTTE leader to tell him that Japan should use its role as the largest aid donor for leverage to urge the Government to alleviate the problems faced by the Tamil community. It seems highly unlikely that Akashi's latest mediatory role to marry the Government and the main Opposition in a political nuptial to resolve the ethnic conflict would materialise.

The second killing of a parliamentarian in Colombo within a week incensed President Rajapaksa. Non-cabinet rank Minister for Nation Building, D.M. Dassanayake, died when suspected Tiger guerrillas exploded a claymore mine near the late Rukmani Devi's statue at Ja-ela last Tuesday. He felt one of the reasons why the guerrillas were able to carry out such a dastardly act and get away was because the checkpoints had been dismantled. After a meeting of the National Security Council on Wednesday morning, Rajapaksa ordered that the checkpoints be re-activated. By Thursday, Army and Police personnel were back at them.

The Supreme Court on December 3 ruled that the prevalent "executive action in operating permanent 'Checkpoints" with unlawful obstruction of public roads and stoppage of all traffic resulting in serious congestion be discontinued…" The ruling by Chief Justice Sarath N. Silva (with Justices Shiranee Thilakawardena and J. Balapatabendi agreeing) said that it amounts to "an infringement of the fundamental right to the freedom of movement" guaranteed in the Constitution and denies to the people the equal protection in law.

Heeding with a fiat from the Supreme Court, the Ministry of Defence had submitted to them proposals on removal of roadblocks and checkpoints. On Monday, the Supreme Court made a further ruling that residences should not be checked between 9 p.m. and 6 a.m. unless there was a specific reason. During search operations, the Court ruled, a police officer from the relevant police station should also accompany the search party.

Chief Government Whip, Jeyaraj Fernandopulle, was critical of the Supreme Court ruling in a talk show on Isiriya radio. Alluding to Parliament as "Diyawanna" (the lake that surrounds the House), he said, it was there to make laws. However, "Hulftsdorp" (meaning the judiciary) was there only to define the law and not to make them.

The Government appears to have been jolted by the responses of several foreign Governments to the abrogation of the CFA. All of them had declared that there was no military solution to the ethnic conflict and appealed that the Government embarks on a political settlement. Members of the All-Party Representatives Committee (APRC), leaders of political parties representing the Government and those of other political parties, the Presidential Secretariat according to a press release from the Presidential Secretariat, held a discussion presided over by President Rajapaksa "for a political solution to the ethnic problem." It said that the President asked APRC Chairman Tissa Vitharana, to hand over the final draft to him by January 23.

Such a highly publicised "discussion for a political solution to the ethnic problem," it seemed, was like putting the cart before the horse. It was only after deciding to abrogate the CFA did it occur that political proposals should be concluded this month. It should have been the other way around with discussions on political proposals preceding the abrogation decision. The fact that it was not so was proof the discussion was the result of both local and international responses to ending the CFA. The need to reiterate the political aspect became necessary. But questions still remain whether enforcing all provisions of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution itself is a viable alternative. The amendment is more than 20 years old. The signing of the Ceasefire Agreement and its existence for nearly six years was proof that proposals that went beyond the 13th Amendment were felt necessary.

Talking with parliamentary colleagues on the subject of abrogating the CFA, SLFP - M faction leader, and a confidant of former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, Mangala Samaraweera, related a hitherto unknown story. Its underlying morale - the Sri Lanka Freedom Party Government had supported the CFA in principle though it was not in agreement with some of its clauses.

He said then President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga in April 2001 had made all arrangements to sign a Ceasefire Agreement with the LTTE. The final text of a draft agreement was ready after Kumaratunga had discussed it with her confidants including late Foreign Minister, Lakshman Kadirgamar and Samaraweera, who through the White Lotus movement was spearheading peace initiatives.

Norway's then Ambassador to Sri Lanka, Jon Westborg, had gone to Kilinochchi to win endorsement of the final text from Prabhakaran. It was just then that the Army's deep penetration unit, the Long Range Reconnaissance Patrol (LRRP) that had infiltrated the Wanni killed Sea Tiger deputy leader, Kangai Amaran. All hopes for a CFA were shattered after this. And it lays shattered now.

World ire over ceasefire