Britain, not India changing Maldivian landscape

By Feizal Samath in the Maldives

Male – The Maldive Islands like many countries in South Asia has engaged with India in a ‘friendly’ way and the powerful neighbour’s dictatorial and ‘big brother’ attitude or just straight involvement is similar to what happens in the region.

There is one exception however: it is Britain and not India that is helping to sort out problems between President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and the opposition. It is Britain that the two sides have turned to, to mediate in the process of transforming from an executive presidency to a multi-party system.

President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom

Overall it’s Britain, China and India that are playing key roles in the developments that are gearing the country towards multi-party polls, an end to presidential rule and youth freedom.

The talk here is that Gayoom may opt for Singapore as his next home if his regime ends – to this equation and that makes it four external countries involved in the country’s stakes.

Don’t forget Sri Lanka. It’s from Colombo that the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) is driving its worldwide campaign for political reforms in the Maldives. Britain is also facilitating talks to be held in Colombo between the Maldivian government and the MDP, Gayoom’s nemesis and arch political opponent.

As the country heads towards a new, much-looked forward to era of freedom and an end to political repression, foreign analysts say foreign engagement in the Maldives is bringing new dimensions to regional politics.

Why is Britain involved rather than India? That’s because although the Maldives is part of South Asia, it is rather isolated from the rest of the region, according to Ibrahim Hussain Zaki, former minister and MDP Vice-President of the MDP.

“There are no common borders to share with India and neither is the economy dependent on India unlike other countries. Trade and the economy is more connected to Commonwealth countries, the EU, and the US, which is why they are more involved than any other South Asian country,” he said.

Mohamed Nasheed

On China's role in the Maldives, Mr. Zaki said China is interested in the Maldives because of its strategic position in the Indian Ocean. There is growing suspicion, as reported in some international newspapers, that the Chinese are interested in establishing a submarine base in the Maldives, which would act as a counterweight to Indian power in the region.

“China is attempting to build friendlier relations with the Maldives by giving it foreign aid, particularly in housing, infrastructure and arms,” he said.

Other analysts believe that Gayoom realises that Indian support will not be guaranteed at all costs particularly if stability is threatened by suppressing democracy groups and thus - as a fall back option – is leaning towards China, a country with similar governance principles and disregard for democratic reform and human rights.

But analysts also say Indian’s intelligence agency RAW (Research & Analysis Wing) is acting as a go-between, between Gayoom and MDP emissaries.

“Both sides have a line to RAW which is acting as a mediator in an unofficial way,” one analyst noted.

Analysts also believe India is concerned about Gayoom’s safe exit if and when he loses power and is engaging the Maldivian opposition to ensure a smooth transition of power when it happens. Last week a delegation of MDP parliamentarians spent several days in India at state invitation.

Returning to the Maldives on a fact-finding mission, after a period of nearly eight years, I found the situation changing fast with residents, particularly the younger population standing up to the government, prepared to take to the streets and openly challenging the administration. Ten years ago, that would have courted arrests and disaster. No one dared then.

For example on a visit about 10 years ago, included in my programme was an interview with a popular political activist who was under house arrest. He wasn’t allowed visitors and had to follow a strict regime inside. I walked into a neighbour’s house and – under a pre-arranged plan – shouted out the questions over the wall separating the two houses as if I was carrying out a conversation with someone in the house I was in. The responses from the detainee came in the same format. Ten days ago, I walked into the home of MDP chairperson and founder Mohamed Nasheed, who is similarly under house arrest, without any fuss. There were no secret service agents lurking around – or even if they were they were making a damn good job of watching the place and who went in without being spotted. The MDP chief, popularly known as Anni, and I, freely discussed the political situation and the future of the country.

Here are excerpts of the interview:

The mood:

Gayoom has to go. That’s a definite need. All these people have joined the party for that reason. If we go for a membership drive (we now have 35,000) we are confident well over 50 percent of the electorate will join us.

If there are free and fair elections, Gayoom will fail badly. I don’t think he’ll get 10-15 percent of the vote. The only people around him are his cronies less than 5,000 who have a lot to lose if the regime changes.

On open criticism of the President

People are getting rid of their fears rapidly not because Gayoom has mended his ways. He still keeps arresting people but residents have decided that enough is enough.

On a witchhunt against Gayoom and his aides when his regime collapses

Any witch hunt would complicate things in the country. It’s a difficult task. But we have to stop any retribution. We are looking at some international models like the South African Truth Commission because politicians and cronies have to pay for their crimes in some form. We know who suffered and we can try to defuse it with people who suffered.On demography changes, an assertive younger population, the need for more jobs for educated.

Maldivian and the fate of some 40,000 foreign workers

There are more, younger people who are educated but don’t have jobs. We are looking at more growth and more jobs. Foreigners will continue to play a key role in the economy because many are connected to the resorts.

On political reforms and whether international scrutiny or public demands that led to the changes

It was public agitation. There is really no international scrutiny and we are frustrated by this. Here is a 100 percent Islamic society with an emerging democratic party. When the world gets involved it would be too late.

If polls don’t take place in mid-2007 for polls date, what would happen?

People are already impatient. There are a lot of youth groups in the last two months who want Gayoom to step down now or overthrow him.

Is the president delaying reforms because he doesn’t have an escape route?

Gayoom cannot reform. Look, if he reforms the judiciary and the public is allowed to file action, overnight there will be many, many cases against him. That’s impossible for him to face.

Is there a drug problem in the Maldives?

About 30 percent of the youth are into drugs. It also has regional implications. It’s good money and since there are many rich people in Male it is easier to sell more drugs here than in Colombo.

Recently the authorities picked up 1.5 tonnes of marijuana from a lagoon in the next atoll. No one knows how it came there. That’s a huge amount and it looks like the Maldives is being used as a transit point.