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LTTE takes beating, but long way to go
It began soon after they finished a breakfast of rice, dhal and dried fish bedun last Friday morning. Czech-built T-55 Main Battle Tanks cut through the sandy terrain at Muhamalai, south of the Jaffna peninsula, where the bitterest battles of ongoing Eelam War IV have been fought in the past weeks. Russian-built BMP troop carriers followed with soldiers. Just behind, columns of heavily armed infantry troops treaded cautiously.
For the troops, the memories of pitched close quarter battles just days earlier were very much alive. They were ready for another close quarter battle to retake what was once the bustling entry-exit point at Muhamalai. They had fallen back some 800 metres during a tactical withdrawal and wanted to return to their original positions. At first they met with only surprise. There was no enemy to halt their onslaught. Later, both artillery and mortar fire began to rain on them. The troops were prepared for it and dodged it in large measure. Confirmation that the guerrillas will not engage them directly came during radio intercepts. They had chosen not to take on the troops but only resort to indirect fire. Instead, the guerrillas were busy repairing the damage caused to their defence lines during earlier battles.
Yet, the troops had to face a major obstacle. Before moving away from what was once a string of makeshift structures at the Muhamalai entry-exit point, the guerrillas had heavily mined the area. They had also placed booby trapped devices. Clearing them lasted more than two hours but the troops took complete control of the area. As this went on, Air Force Kfir ground attack aircraft continued to pound guerrilla positions across the Muhamalai defences. Troops completed their mission by Friday forenoon. Two officers were killed when improvised explosive devices exploded. One officer and 22 soldiers were injured, nine of them after stepping on what is called batta or improvised anti-personnel mines. The tracks of three T-55 Main Battle Tanks were damaged when they rolled over land mines and improvised explosive devices. They were later repaired. The troops were consolidating their gains. As they continued to remove mines yesterday, a soldier pulled the branch of a tree that lay on the ground. An IED (Improvised Explosive Device) exploded. Secondary explosions followed. Nine soldiers were killed and 11 were wounded. Another significant move in the Muhamalai sector came yesterday morning. Troops ousted Tiger guerrillas from positions they were holding at Eluthumaduval, north east of the Muhamalai defences. Here again the troops had made a tactical withdrawal after repulsing guerrilla attempts to cut across the thin isthmus that links the Jaffna peninsula to the mainland. If that attempt was successful, troops in Muhamalai would have been trapped. But they bravely resisted repeated guerrilla attempts and inflicted casualties on them. Yesterday two soldiers were wounded. By capturing areas in and around Muhamalai, troops have gone back to their original positions that existed after the ceasefire in February 2002. In Eluthumaduwal they have evicted the guerrillas from some ten bunkers and surrounding areas. Thus they have denied the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) any claims that they drove the troops out in some areas of the Jaffna peninsula. The fact that the troops are back in their original positions in the Jaffna peninsula from this week is significant. This clearly means that despite some of the heaviest battles since 5.45 p.m. on August 11, the guerrillas were not successful in infiltrating the peninsula by breaking through security forces defences. Troops have steadfastly withstood such attempts. Thus they prevented cadres who had remained within the peninsula from activating themselves after linking with those who have infiltrated. Whilst the ground troops have returned to status quo ante, the Air Force, playing a very key role in the current fighting, has begun to respond to LTTE attempts since August 11 to prevent flights from landing at Palaly airstrip. Almost daily the guerrillas have directed 130 mm artillery fire at the runway and other locations coming within the Air Force base there. This week the Air Force landed An-32 transport planes at Palaly. This is whilst a reconnaissance aircraft was airborne looking out for locations from which guerrilla artillery fire could emanate. It will be a while before they revert to their normal schedule. Only such a move would pave the way for the resumption of commercial flights. The guerrillas also directed artillery fire on the Dockyard in Trincomalee, home for the Eastern Naval Area Headquarters. This was from across the seas from the village of Sampur which they occupy. The Government's concern over this was highlighted last Monday. President Mahinda Rajapaksa told envoys of the Donor Co-chairs - United States, Japan, European Union and Norway - that he sought an explicit commitment from the LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran to ensure that "Sampur area does not pose a military threat to the Trincomalee harbour and its environs emanating from the LTTE presence in that area in violation of the ceasefire agreement." This was whilst insisting that Mr. Prabhakaran should also give the Government an explicit commitment to a "comprehensive and verifiable cessation of hostilities." Serious external constraints prevent me from making a fuller appreciation of the recent developments and what they portend. Thus readers may, to a considerable degree, be handicapped in understanding the important realities. I regret my inability to express myself freely in the light of these constraints and the resultant restraints imposed. There is no doubt the LTTE has received a severe beating in the recent fighting with security forces, both in the north and in the east. But they are not yet beaten. The worst blow came for them in their continued attempts to lay siege on the Jaffna peninsula. Guerrilla held areas in Wanni has been plunged into chaos and confusion. Hardly a day has passed without a number of funerals, according to reports reaching Colombo. Hospitals in Kilinochchi, Dharmapuram, Nedunkerni and Vattakachchi are reported to be full with injured guerrilla cadres. Reports also said several houses in the Wanni have been turned into wards where the injured are being cared for. Guerrilla leaders were reported to have launched a manhunt for civilians in the area who are being suspected as informants to the security forces. Some have been rounded up and "imprisoned." This is particularly after the series of air raids by the Sri Lanka Air Force. They have been bombing Sea Tiger bases, ammunition dumps, guerrilla camps and even boat movements at sea. A high ranking military source who spoke on grounds of anonymity said the aim was to destroy the LTTE military infrastructure so "they will not have the muscle to carry out repeated attacks on us." But the intelligence hierarchy in Colombo as well as foreign intelligence establishments is baffled by a number of questions. Among them is why the LTTE did not use some of the resources it has acquired during the ceasefire. Among a few of the areas which remain unclear are: = The LTTE, as exclusively revealed by The Sunday Times on many occasions in the past years constructed a 1.4 kilometre long airstrip near the Iranamadu irrigation tank. A foreign intelligence source confirmed to the Government that the LTTE possessed five light aircraft. There were fears in the Air Force that they could be used as "suicide bombs" in the sky. But they were not put to use. = The LTTE is known to be in possession of Russian built SA 7 surface-to-air missiles. This was used to down Air Force passenger planes in April 1995 after the outbreak of Eelam War III. It is known that these SAMs have a limited shelf life. Have they outlived their life span? During this week's United States Federal Bureau of Investigation bust of an LTTE ring, one of the suspects Thani admitted the LTTE possessed SA-7s. He told FBI they are not effective in hitting aircraft and it took two to three missiles to down one of them. = The Sunday Times (Situation Reports) last year exclusively revealed suspicions by the Air Force that the guerrillas have acquired air defence systems to protect their airstrip. This was after three different helicopter flights had their counter missile systems activated when they flew past the LTTE airstrip at Iranamadu. Even if such a mechanism activated when Kfir jets bombed the airstrip, the LTTE does not have the capability to fire back at this Israeli ground attack aircraft. By LTTE's own admission, it is fast moving and cannot be hit by an SA 7 surface to air missile. This is why the LTTE was trying to get Russian built SA-18 surface-to-air missiles in the United States, as revealed by the FBI this week. They were also seeking various types of equipment for use in the airstrip. Here again, the question is like their aircraft, why the airstrip was not put to use. = The Sea Tigers, the sea going arm of the LTTE. Recent fighting has not seen the induction of large groups of Sea Tigers either on a sea borne operation or in coastal areas. Is this the result of Air Force bombing of Sea Tiger bases or a deliberate move to keep them away for the time being? = Many recent detections (including the attempt on the Colombo Port, the detection by the Karandeniya Police of a lorry laden with weapons, the Borella Police find of a claymore mine) showed LTTE preparations to trigger off attacks in Colombo. Has the LTTE failed in successive attempts due to greater public awareness? There is still a worry prompted by fears that some of the explosives or weaponry would have come in undetected. President Rajapaksa has ordered that high priority be given to the security in the City of Colombo and immediate suburbs. The Ministry of Defence on August 18 appointed an experienced Army officer as Overall Operations Commander (OOC) for Colombo. Major General Lawrence Fernando, now number four officer in the Army's hierarchy is the former Director General of General Staff (DGGS) at Joint Operations Headquarters. He has been hand picked by President Rajapaksa. His areas of responsibility will be to exercise command over the personnel of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Police and STF (Special Task Force) allocated/deployed for operational duties within Colombo and suburbs. He will also co-ordinate all intelligence activities, deal with matters pertaining to civil/commercial security and civil defence organizations. All Army, Navy, Air Force, STF Detachment, Police areas including Police Stations, intelligence agencies, Civil Defence Organisations, Civil/Commercial Security Organisations within the metropolitan area of Colombo and suburbs including Wattala, Ragama, Sapugaskanda, Peliyagoda, Kelaniya, Wellampitiya, Mulleriyawa, Welikada, Thalangama, Mirihana, Kohuwala, Dehiwala and Mount Lavinia have been placed under Major General Fernando for operational purposes. He will operate under Air Chief Marshal Donald Perera, Chief of Defence Staff for "functional aspects of maintaining law and order and security in Colombo and suburbs." In another development, President Rajapaksa has appointed a two-member Commission of Inquiry to probe the assassination of Batticaloa district parliamentarian Joseph Pararajasingham on December 25, 2005. The Commission comprises two former judges -Mahanama Tillekeratne and S.V.P. Munidasa. The task of the Commission will be to "inquire into and obtain information in respect of the circumstances relating to the assassination of the late Joseph Pararajasingham at Batticaloa on or about 25th December, 2005 and the person or persons directly or indirectly responsible for such assassination." The Commission has also been called upon to probe "whether the manner in which the investigations were carried out by the Police and other security personnel assisting was adequate and impartial having due regard to the proceedings established by law." The Commission has been empowered to hold sittings in camera if it so determines. These developments come as the security forces and the police have stepped up their counter offensives against the guerrillas. In marked contrast to previous occasions, the LTTE propaganda machine has been relatively slow in speaking about developments in the battlefield. The recent beating guerrilla cadres received, particularly after they have chosen and executed the areas of attack in the north and east (like Mutur and its environs, Jaffna peninsula) could be attributed to a number of reasons. Main among them is the fact that the LTTE has not been able to retain its military capability at peak levels with the exit of its eastern leader Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan alias Karuna. This was clearly shown during battles in the east and thereafter at Muhamalai. The Karuna cadres formed the bulwark of LTTE's military machine when troops launched Operation Jaya Sikurui in 1997 to link Vavuniya with the Jaffna peninsula. Another factor appears to be the LTTE under estimation of the capability of the security forces. Like in the late 1999, they perceived an en masse withdrawal when the defences were attacked. That did not happen. Since August 11 until August 18, 14 officers and 141 soldiers were killed in the Jaffna peninsula, according to the Army. A further two officers and 21 soldiers are reported missing. During this period 43 officers and 685 soldiers were wounded, most of them being described as "walking wounded." The military offensive in the east to capture Mavil Aru anicut led to the deaths of 12 officers and 28 soldiers. Since July 26 until yesterday 278 security forces personnel have been killed. They are made up of Army 246, Navy 9, Air Force 2, Police 14 and Home Guards 7. Army sources say both in the east and in recent fighting in the Jaffna peninsula over 800 guerrilla cadres were killed and a further 1,000 wounded. However, independent verification of these figures is not possible. The LTTE has also played down its casualty counts. The performance of the security forces including the police as well as their Special Task Force (STF) commandos has led to national euphoria. Quite rightly so. But for those militarily engaging the guerrillas, there is a clear message. They need to remain vigilant and have a long way to go. One is reminded of the various phases of Operation Riviresa to capture the Jaffna peninsula. On December 5, 1995 the recapture was celebrated in Colombo with a glittering nationally televised ceremony. The events led to the belief that the LTTE had been defeated. That was because of a number of reasons. The LTTE held territory in the Jaffna peninsula and ran a virtual parallel administration. The money for it came from the Government. They had a recruitment base there. They had recourse to electricity to manufacture improvised explosive devices. The sea lanes to India were closer. They had a population to "govern." All this was lost when the LTTE was pushed to the Wanni jungles. Some said from Wann it was a case sweeping them out to the Indian ocean. But eight months after the recapture of Jaffna, on July 4, 1996 the LTTE returned. On that day Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva escaped death from a suicide bomber. But Brigadier Ananda Hamangoda, Brigade Commander for Jaffna town, SSP Carlyle Dias, Superintendent of Police Jaffna were among 21 killed. Just two weeks later, on July 18 1996 the guerrillas carried out a conventional style attack on the Mullaitivu military base. Over a thousand soldiers were killed and millions worth of military hardware was lost. The ongoing offensives on Tiger guerrillas will no doubt lead to considerable damage and some curtailment of their military capability. But there is a formidable challenge for the Government. It would have to beat them not only in the battlefield but on several other fronts. Main among them is the vast financial resources the LTTE has amassed in Switzerland and other off shore banks. The revelations by the FBI on the LTTE's financial capabilities worldwide this week comes as an eye opener. To crack down on such activity, the Government will need international support and co-operation. Otherwise the oxygen for the guerrillas to survive will remain. Hence prolonged military action will not end the ongoing problem. More war will only mean more damage to the economy and heaping of further hardships on the people. An example - in one battle area for just a week 6500 artillery rounds were fired. A round cost US $ 285 (or Rs 28,500). I am reminded of the words of then Commander of the Army, Lt. Gen. Gerry de Silva, soon after Jaffna was re-captured. Amidst the nationwide euphoria that prevailed, I asked him then whether the LTTE has now been defeated. "They are down but not out," was his reply.
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