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The Situation Report

18th April 1999

Rethinking military strategy for millennium

By Iqbal Athas

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Sri Lanka enters the fifth successive year of Eelam War Three at midnight today.

That is with a quarter of the current year already over. Only less than nine months remain for the dawn of the new millennium. With that around, both the security forces and the Tiger guerrillas are busy on two main fronts - stepping up recruitment drives and re-equipping themselves.

With that race for military superiority gaining momentum, there seems little doubt the separatist war will extend to the 21st century. That is not withstanding the latest prophecies of Deputy Defence Minister, Anuruddha Ratwatte, that the war would end this year paving the way for prosperity. His latest assertions came during speeches at political rallies in the run up to this month's elections to five Provincial Councils.

Exactly four years ago, on April, 18,1995, Marco Alther, then head of the ICRC (International Committee of the Red Cross), received a fax in his Colombo office. It came from the ICRC Jaffna branch. Addressed to President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, and dated April,18, a Tuesday, it was signed by LTTE leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran.

Mr Alther had delivered the letter to Temple Trees, now the official residence of the President, by Tuesday evening. It was bad news. The LTTE was withdrawing from peace talks with the People's Alliance Government. It was around 9.30 p.m. when President Kumaratunga reached out for the hot line to inform the three service commanders and the Inspector General of Police.

The foursome -Gen. Gerry de Silva (Army), Vice Admiral Mohan Samarasekera (Navy), Air Marshal Oliver Ranasinghe (Air Force) and Inspector General of Police, Frank Silva, are now retired.

She told them from midnight that day, an agreement between the Government and the LTTE to cease hostilities, would not be in force and wanted troops in all security installations alerted immediately. She also wanted their presence at an emergency meeting of the National Security Council the next morning, Wednesday, April 19, 1995.

As midnight approached, the headquarters of the Army, Navy and Air Force were a hive of activity. Most busy was the Army Headquarters where then Commander, Gen. Gerry de Silva (then a Lieutenant General), had given a lengthy checklist to the Duty Officer that night.

Major General Sarath Munasinghe (then Brigadier and Military Spokesman), who was acting for Major General (then Brigadier) Neil Dias, Commanding Officer, 12 Brigade Headquarters, had brought the City under red alert. Army patrols were moved in to guard key installations and man checkpoints.

Division Commanders were told by Gen. de Silva to immediately work out operational plans to strike LTTE targets. From Batticaloa, Maj. Gen. Somadasa Hapuartachchi, (then Brigadier) told his Army Commander by phone that night he had a list of LTTE targets. But he had no troops. In view of the peace talks that were under way, troops had been sent to Wanni area for further training.

It was around 1.30 a.m.. that Wednesday (April 19) when then Navy Commander, Vice Admiral Samarasekera, telephoned President Kumaratunga to say the LTTE had struck. Four Tiger cadres, two women and two men, had entered the Trincomalee Navy base and blasted the Chinese built gun boat "Sooraya" and the Shanghai River class fast gunboat "Ranasuru". Twelve Navy personnel were killed and 21 more were wounded. Eelam War Three had begun.

The reason for resuming hostilities, the LTTE argued, was the absence of a "positive response" from President Kumaratunga lifting a "ban on fuel and fishing rights" in the north. But she hit back with a strong response. President Kumaratunga accused the LTTE of laying down pre conditions even before talks proper could commence. She said their demands could have "serious military repercussions if granted outside the framework of established and durable peace."

Talks between the PA and the LTTE had begun in earnest after the former was voted to power in late 1994 ousting the United National Party that had governed for 17 long years. During that period, the UNP had held two separate phases of peace talks with the LTTE, each preceding what came to be euphemistically labelled as Eelam War One and Two.

The emergency meeting of the National Security Council was delayed. Deputy Defence Minister, Anuruddha Ratwatte, was away in the east. An Air Force helicopter was detailed to pick him up at first light from Welikande. It was airborne when senior security officials realised it was not a wise move. There were fears the LTTE may attack the aircraft. Instructions went out on a secure communications set requesting the Minister and his security detail to travel by road to Minneriya. The helicopter landed there and flew the Deputy Defence Minister and party to Colombo.

At the emergency meeting of the National Security Council, an angry President Kumaratunga, declared that the LTTE had reneged on the talks. She ordered the security forces to crush the LTTE militarily and offered to make available whatever they required, both in terms of men and material. She wanted the task to be carried out within a limited time frame.

Former President, D.B. Wijetunge, who had declared Parliamentary elections ahead of schedule in 1994, had put on hold a military operation to-recapture Wanni areas and frozen military procurements, most of it to facilitate the military offensive. Military leaders not only wanted these to be obtained but urged that bureaucratic requirements -evaluation, tender procedures etc, be done away with. It was only then, they explained, could an early time frame be executed. That was agreed and the magic word "crisis purchase" was born.

All forms of military hardware, some costing millions but not in working order from the day purchases were made, came to be added to the inventories of the security forces. Defence expenditure which stood at Rs 32 billion in 1995 is now expected to rise to Rs 52 billion for 1998. The largely unchecked free for all in procurements resulted in widespread corruption and the creation of instant millionaires, both in uniform and outside it. It is no secret that some high ranking military officials, some retired and others still serving, received large cutbacks on procurements.

One officer, now retired, wrote to a former President asking for a plot of land. This was on the grounds that he had no place to live when he retired and wanted to build a house. That was granted and a modest house came up. But today, he owns over two luxury residences, a fleet of luxury cars and has set up an export house whose produce is finding ready markets in Europe and Asia, including some of the very countries from which procurements have been made. There is the case of another who has acquired premium property on a lake front for a luxury house and yet another who is on the look out for real estate for a tourist complex. The catalogue goes on and on.

It is in this backdrop that Sri Lanka enters the fifth year of Eelam War Three. As reported in these columns last week, the intelligence community is watching, not without trepidation, what the LTTE's plans are for the fourth anniversary.

April 19 also marks the eleventh death anniversary of LTTE's K. Poopathi alias Annai Poopathy alias Poopathy Amma. She staged a protest- fast against the IPKF and died on April 19, 1998.

Last Friday (April 14), LTTE top rungers with the exception of leader Prabhakaran, gathered in their office in Puthukudiruppu to observe Hindu new year festivities. It came amidst reports of a new LTTE decree in the Wanni that all persons in the age groups 20 to 28 years undergo"military" training. The move is said to cover a large number of not only students but also teachers and comes in the wake of a fresh recruitment drive the LTTE has launched in the Wanni. The new move is seen by military officials as a form of veiled forced conscription. "This confirms that they (LTTE) are short of cadres. They now want to have a second line to fall back if there is more pressure from us," said a high ranking Army official, who spoke on grounds of anonymity. He believed the move had come after the latest recruitment drive did not meet required expectations.

The relative lull in the battle front during the Sinhala and Hindu New Year season early this week, did not mean the security establishment had a break. To the contrary, they were kept occupied.

If security precautions in the City were heightened by fears of LTTE strikes, the holiday season brought similar measures in Nuwara Eliya where the VIPs were among those who were holidaying. These came after intelligence warnings that Tiger guerrillas planned a string of explosions in the area. A guerrilla group from Karadiyanaru near Eravur (Batticaloa district) was reported to have arrived at a secret location in Ragala. Police conducted repeated searches in estate and other areas suspected but found no evidence. The vigil is to continue until the end of the holiday season.

But an important breakthrough was made by the Army after they interrogated a captured Tiger guerrilla last week. He had been a member of a group that had infiltrated re-captured areas in the Wanni. That brought confirmation to what Military Intelligence had already learnt - that the LTTE had unloaded a shipment of military cargo in the recent weeks. It had contained medical supplies, Surface to Air (SAM) missiles, a Multi Barrel Rocket Launcher (MBRL) and a load of artillery/mortar shells.

It was this MBRL that was used by the Tiger guerrillas when they attacked the 212 Brigade Headquarters in Mannar on March 17. (Situation Report - March 21). Independent confirmation of the latest LTTE acquisition of Surface to Air Missiles came in a report in April 7 issue of Jane's Defence Weekly. Quoting Asian intelligence sources, JDW identified the SAMs as Russian made SA 14s or Igla (needle in Russian). Last year, an Army team that ambushed an LTTE group in Mannar seized a surface to air missile. It was later handed over to the Sri Lanka Air Force which identified it as an SA 14.

The captured Tiger guerrilla was one of four who made an abortive attack on the Wanni defences, a sector manned by the Sri Lanka Air Force, last Monday (April 12). Air Force sentries shot dead three and captured one.

The SLAF men retrieved from the attackers a Contrept 600 sophisticated video camera, one that had been mounted on a UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) that crashed late last month. They also seized two communication sets and two weapons. The captured guerrilla underwent surgery at the Anurudhapura Base hospital and has now been transferred to Colombo.

The man is said to have confessed that the video camera was one they removed from the UAV that crashed in Pompaimadu, security forces controlled area, on the Mannar -Vavuniya Road on March 29 . However, the area had not been dominated at that time. Hence the guerrillas, who had infiltrated and were operating within the controlled areas, had removed the camera. The captured guerrilla had confessed that he and his group were re-called by their leaders to a base outside the new defences since they had wanted to examine the camera. Thereafter, the team had been sent back to carry out surveillance, conduct sabotage and attacks.

The UAV, said to be the last in SLAF hands (with a damaged one being repaired), was one of the controversial procurements made when Air Marshal Oliver Ranasinghe was the Commander of the Sri Lanka Air Force. The Superscout UAV system was purchased from Israel Aircraft Industries through the Malat Division of its Military Aircraft Group, an Israeli company. The deal was executed through Zvi Joseph, an Israeli arms dealer whose company, Oak Enterprises Pte Ltd., is located in Singapore. The deal cost US $ 260,000 (over Rs. 18.2 million) for a used (but serviceable) UAV system with ground support and test equipment.

Prior to the conclusion of the deal in late 1995, Gen. Shuval, an official of the Israeli Ministry of Defence, arrived in Colombo for talks with AVM Ranasinghe. He offered a demonstration of the UAVs but said the Government of Sri Lanka would have to pay the cost of the demonstration if a purchase was not made.

Despite the SLAF signing a contract for the purchase of the UAV, the IAI Malat Division in Israel, forwarded an invoice for US 76,000 (over Rs 4.33 million) for demonstration flights (two and three) which they said were carried out on Sri Lankan request. A Board chaired by Director General of Engineering (SLAF) had recommended this payment.

This is one of the subjects that came under the scrutiny of a three member Presidential Committee that is probing SLAF acquisitions. The Committee chaired by former Secretary to the Ministry of Health, Christie Perera, was appointed in April, last year, and was required to submit its report within eight weeks. However, the large volume of representations it has received has forced it to continue sittings even this month.

Government officials have made it known to the Committee that President Kumaratunga is awaiting their report early. The latest delay in sittings had been caused by the absence from Sri Lanka of its Chairman. It is expected to resume sittings next week. It is not immediately clear how many more weeks it will take before the Committee concludes its report.

As reported in these columns last week, infiltration and attacks in areas re-captured after the two phases of "Operation Rana Gosa" has become a serious concern to the authorities. On March 29, at Oththiyamalai in Nedunkerny, seven soldiers were killed and one more sustained injuries due to a claymore mine attack on a security forces convoy. On April 2, at Kovatkulam near Murunkan, Tiger guerrillas attacked a police patrol killing eight policemen and injuring two more.

On Friday Tiger guerrillas attacked troops at Uyilankulam in Mannar district killing three policemen and wounding two soldiers.

The ongoing NATO bombing of Yugoslavia has also brought in its wake a campaign by pro LTTE groups abroad to rally support to their struggle in Sri Lanka- a move that appears to have led to erroneous reports of moves by Tiger guerrillas to effect a Unilateral Declaration of Independence. LTTE media in the Wanni including its Voice of Tigers clandestine radio has made no mention of any UDI move except to report that Tamil groups were launching a campaign for an independent Tamil Eelam. These developments made even Colombo's intelligence community to believe the LTTE planned a UDI.

The Federation of Tamil Association of United Kingdom (which earlier styled itself the Co-ordinating Committee of Tamil Associations of the United Kingdom) has announced the conduct of a "conference and rally" by "Tamils living in Britain" on Sunday, April 25, at Alexandra Palace, Alexendra Palace Way, Wood Green. The unique event, the Federation says, intends to highlight the situation regarding the Tamil question in Sri Lanka. A poster for the event describes it as "Rally and Conference - Tamil Eelam towards Independence." It adds "We call upon you to attend and express your support for an independent Tamil Eelam." There is no mention of an UDI move. The Federation's Press Liaison Officer is K. Rasiah, whose address is given as Eelam House, Long Lane - the new offices of the LTTE in London.

A direct link between next Sunday's London conference and Kosovo is the reference made by the Federation in the letter of invitation sent out to UK journalists to a statement made by a Roger Wareham, (International Association Against Torture) at the 55th session of the Consortium of Human Rights in Geneva on April 6. Carrying the words "no no not Kosovo" in reverse print, this is what it says:

"Developed countries and their media's response to certain situations, like Kosovo, is markedly different than it is for Third World situations like Sri Lanka, Gautemala, Rwanda and El Salvador, where many more thousands of civilians were killed.

"Rhetorical flourishes notwithstanding, the Sri Lankan government is not taking the steps necessary to justly resolve the Tamil struggle for self-determination. Its war against the Tamil people, its press censorship, its detention of political prisoners, its failure to repeal the Prevention of Terrorism Act all violate the human rights of the Tamil people."

The Government's response came in a statement the Foreign Ministry issued expressing "deep concern" over the "deteriorating situation in Kosovo and other parts of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and particularly the practice of ethnic cleansing and the contrived exodus of civilians based on the unacceptable concepts of ethnic exclusiveness and secession."

The Foreign Ministry said on Friday that "Sri Lanka deplores these practices whenever and wherever they occur, not least because a ruthless terrorist group, the LTTE, has subjected the people of different ethnic and religious communities in Sri Lanka to such abhorrent practices aimed at achieving an ethnically segregated separate state." The Foreign Ministry press release added: "In view of the grave humanitarian situation in Kosovo, Sri Lanka voted for the resolution on the situation in Kosovo, which was adopted early this week at the ongoing session of the Commission on Human Rights in Geneva. The resolution calls for a series of strong measures to address, stabilise and resolve the situation. Sri Lanka, as a member of the Non-Aligned Movement, also believes that the struggle against terrorism would be most effective when carried out in pursuance of the collective will of the international community, in full conformity with the principles of the UN Charter and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all States."

It is not only the LTTE that is seizing the situation in Kosovo to draw international attention to its struggle. The People's Liberation of Thamileelam (PLOT) seems to be on the same wave length.

On March 30, PLOT group organised a protest march and demonstration in Vavuniya to condemn NATO bombing raids on Yugoslavia. More than 200 persons including a small group of women moved around the town area, burnt a map and a flag of the United States of America. A PLOT resolution condemning the United States over the Kosovo issue was handed over by James Kanakaratnam (PLOT District Organiser and G.T. Linganathan, chairman, Urban Council, Vavuniya, to Additional Government Agent Vavuniya A. Ragu-nathapillai to be directed to the US Embassy in Colombo.

The LTTE response to cash in on the Kosovo situation again demonstrates their alertness to make use of international situations to their advantage. It reveals not only their reading of ongoing ground realities, but also their studied anticipation of international responses which could be made use of as analogous to the Eelam scenario.

In this regard, it would not be relevant to keep watch on developing European Union opinion of the preferability to position a United Nations Force to restore the situation in Kosovo should a Serb withdrawal be effected.

It is not the Kosovo solution that is the studied issue here but the principle of it as a demand for international support as a panacea to situations of real, perceived or alleged "ethnic cleansing." It is not a question of the justifiability of a claim but rather that it provides ground to escalate domestic issues internationally.

That international support is an aspect essential and vital to the sustenance of the LTTE struggle in Sri Lanka is well recognised. Yet, Government counter measures are ponderously bureaucratic and slow.

As the Yugoslav and before, the Gulf War, have shown war in this day and age are not just battlefield encounters. It embraces many other facets. Unless all these are in concert, the war will continue to be a long process of intolerable attrition.

Sri Lanka is at the cross roads with an approaching new millennium, economically drained, parliamentary and presidential elections to come. It is opportune that the Government addresses itself to a revised national, and I mean national, strategy, both political and military, if the country is to make progress into the 21st century.


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