Special Report

11th April 1999

Trial match: Lessons for big match

Trial match: Lessons for big match

Whoever said that there were three kinds of lies- lies, damn lies and statistics- probably was not thinking about the elections to the five Provincial Councils that were concluded last Tuesday, but if he was, he couldn't have been more right.

Tuesday's election left the two major political parties -the ruling Peoples' Alliance (PA) and the Opposition United National Party (UNP)- both claiming emphatic victories but left the leadership of both parties as well as the ordinary voter perplexed by the complex verdict that emerged from the poll. Certainly, the PA could justifiably claim they won control of all five provinces. But the fact is they lost a sizeable share of votes at this election. Conversely, the UNP rightly claims the party significantly increased its votes and also won in many constituencies where they had lost earlier. But again, the fact remains that they were unable to gain control of even a single province. Hence the use of statistics by the rival camps is a ruse to claim victory.

Despite these claims and counter claims this election does offer an insight into the mindset of the Sri Lankan electorate as of now and more importantly offers a glimpse of what is in store for the PA, the UNP and other political parties as well as election year approaches with the new millennium.

From a PA perspective, despite wresting control of all five provinces the results can hardly be considered encouraging, maybe with the exception of the North Central Province. The party has performed miserably in the cities and constituencies nursed by key ministers- Ratnasiri Wikremenayake, Nimal Siripala de Silva, A.H.M.Fowzie and G.L.Peiris, to name a few- have been lost. This was echoed editorially in the pro-government Daily News, which stated Thursday the major reason for the PA 'victory', was what it called the "Chandrika factor" lambasting unnamed PA "bigwigs" for their allegedly lackadaisical performance.

The Daily News is often known to reflect the thinking within the corridors of power and these sentiments left some within the PA itself wondering whether this was a subtle message from the Boss to her cabinet colleagues. There is no denying, then, that the PA's popularity is on the wane. The question to ponder here is the timing of the next General or Presidential election. Both polls are not due until August next year. But many in the PA were worried after Tuesday's results considering the possibility that the fall in popularity might cross the dividing line between victory and defeat if they were to wait that long for the next election. But publicly and in private President Chandrika Kumaratunga appears confident. Her thinking, insiders say, is that while the Provincial Council election would be a yardstick to assess public sentiment on the performance of her regime, it would be futile to predict the outcome of General or Presidential polls on this basis.

Her argument appears to be that in the PC polls, the candidates- save for a few big guns of the Karu Jayasuriya calibre-were "podiyens" in national politics and therefore the public would have been less guarded in their decision making. The rationale of this appears to be that were President Kumaratunga to contest a Presidential election against, say Ranil Wickremesinghe, her charisma and personality would prevail. That is not unreasonable thinking. In fact, that is quite a possibility because she still has the capability to address the masses in a language they understand, a fib, a joke thrown in while Ranil Wickremesinghe is probably too logical and thereby unattractive.

But there is also a fact President Kumaratunga may have overlooked and that is the requirement that a Presidential candidate has to obtain over 50% of valid votes to be declared a winner at first count.

President J.R.Jayewardene obtained 52.1% at the peak of his popularity in 1982 and in 1989 President Premadasa barely scraped through the magical 50% mark at first count. President Chandrika Kumaratunga in 1994 of course swept past the mark with a resounding 62% of the vote. The question now is, can Chandrika Kumaratunga do it again? Even the most ardent PA fan will agree she cannot.

What the President's advisers would also be mindful of is that unlike in these PC elections, at elections which change governments voters, like public servants, armed forces personnel and those who get a stipend from the State-like the Samurdhi beneficiaries-can vote against an incumbent government if the other side promises a better deal.

Here the pattern at Tuesday's poll is not encouraging for the President. The PA obtained only 45.2% of the vote in the aggregate vote from all five provinces, as against 42.6% by the UNP, the difference being 126,000 votes -or 2.7% of the total vote. The North and East did not of course vote but even if they do vote at a Presidential election it is unlikely to bolster the President's percentages.

Also of importance is the margin of 2.7% of the votes being the difference between the two major parties. This is almost certainly a floating vote and one would be hard pressed to venture a prediction as to what could happen in a subsequent election.

Indeed, judging from Tuesday's verdict, where the JVP obtained a significant 5.3% slice of the total vote, if that were to be repeated there is every possibility that no Presidential candidate will obtain the prescribed 50% at first count at the next Presidential election. This is an issue the government's think tanks need to anticipate. The ideal solution to this of course would have been to hold the Parliamentary elections first- they are due before the Presidential poll anyway- and then let a victory in that poll snowball into a larger mandate at the Presidential election a few months later.

That is precisely what happened in 1994 when President D.B.Wijetunge took what appeared to be a gamble. But, that option is not viable now, given the less than impressive performance of the PA at the electoral level at Tuesday's election. Electorate-wise, the UNP has made significant gains; most of it in metropolitan areas and this does not augur well for the ruling party. It will be recalled that in 1994 Presidential elections, the UNP "won" only the Mahiyangana electorate in the Uva province and the party was at the butt end of many jokes on that account. The PA realising the need for better party work at Mahiyanganaya sent young MP Dilan Perera to nurse the electorate and this time Mahiyanganaya voted for the PA although some reports of violence and rigging spoilt that victory. Elsewhere however, it was a different story. Electorate-wise, there were 95 constituencies on offer at the poll and the PA won 61, the UNP 33 and the Thondaman group emerged leaders at Nuwara -Eliya Maskeliya.

Of the electorates won by the PA, ten were in the North Central Province which meant that out of 85 electorates in the other provinces, the PA won 51 and the UNP emerged victorious in 33, hardly a cause for celebration in the government ranks. But then, there cannot be much celebration within the UNP either.

The Party expected to gain control of at least the Western Province and possibly the Central and Uva Provinces. That they couldn't achieve this points to the conclusion that any gains the UNP made are not due to it's own performance as a dynamic opposition but rather the spoils of a disgruntled electorate opting for a change. This is probably true to a certain extent, as it would also explain the gains made by the JVP.

But, if the UNP was to gain anything from this election it would have to turn the searchlight inwards instead of gloating on percentage and electoral gains, as some pundits in the green camp are wont to do.There will of course be no shortage of theories as to why there was such a swing towards the UNP and more intriguingly, why the swing didn't amount to victories.

What is definite however is that cities voted for the UNP and the villages voted against it. But, the party leadership should realise that even some suburban areas-Kotte; Kesbewa, Homagama and Kaduwela to cite a few- opted for the PA.

It may be argued that the UNP did not campaign enough in the hinterland while President Chandrika Kumaratunga was not shy of campaigning in rural areas-although she arrived and left by helicopter! To say then that the UNP has what might be called an "image problem" vis-à-vis the rural voter, appears a valid argument. The party is already burdened with the flip side of its image of the past 17 years of which the President never tires of reminiscing. To try and counter this with high-tech propaganda methods and yuppie tactics is futile, as this election has amply demonstrated. In fact, one suspects that if not for this poll the UNP would have been wise to this only after next year's General or Presidential elections.

One sympathises with Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. He is saddled with the political heritage of J.R. Jayewardene and R.Premadasa by virtue of the fact that he was a key minister in the regimes of those leaders. And sadly, even his well-intentioned efforts to rid the party of the scars of those days do not seem to be paying electoral dividends.

The UNP's defeat at Katana- what was a pocket borough for the greens in the days of Wijepala Mendis- is a case in point. Mr Wickremasinghe antagonised a sizeable section of the party's Old Guard in his efforts to get rid of Wijepala Mendis to try and give the UNP a cleaner image. And now, that too appears to have boomeranged on him! There is a case for the UNP leader to woo all factions within the party. Throwing the Coorays, Premadasas, Mendises, Dissanayakes into disarray will not help. As Tuesday's polls show the UNP will have to fight hard for every vote and every vote will count. So, anybody- even an Athulathmudali- might be helpful. And that is just what it did not do with Saumyamoorthy Thondaman, now having to pay the price of forfeiting control of the Central Province.

Thondaman, the indefatigable opportunist is now back to his pastime of playing power broker and Ranil Wickremesinghe must be ruing the day he decided to sabotage the passage of the octogenarian's Ministry votes in Parliament. It does sound patriotic to say that the UNP will go it alone, come what may- as Ranil Wickremasinghe says but the ground reality now is that the UNP needs those little electoral arrangements with a Thondaman, an Ashraff or an Athulathmudali just as much as President Kumaratunga relies on the Indika Gunawardenas and the Batty Weerakoons and Douglas Devanandas for her survival.

Many in the PA would of course say that is not possible with Mr. Wickremesinghe at the helm of the UNP because he has first to deal with the power struggles within the UNP and the name being mentioned- and eagerly promoted by the state media- is that of Karu Jayasuriya. He (Karu Jayasuriya) certainly didn't do his chances of rising within the party any harm at Tuesday's poll, obtaining a massive 250,000 preferences from the Colombo district where the total UNP vote was 362,000-a mandate comparable with that obtained by Chandrika Kumaratunga from Gampaha in 1994. Nevertheless within the UNP, Ranil Wickremesinghe is still very much the leader and Karu Jayasuriya would readily acknowledge that.The UNP had a well-oiled, well run party machinery by 1977 exquisitely crafted by J.R. Jayewardene. He concentrated on polling-booth organisation, the very root of the organisational concept.

By 1989 Jayewardene lost interest in the party apparatus when he decided not to attempt a third-term.

Premadasa opted for a direct approach to the voter using State TV, radio and press and visiting electorates.

By 1994 the UNP's great grass-root machine of 1977 was virtually non- functional. Ranil Wickremesinghe has to now re-invent that wheel.

To get this party apparatus in working order Ranil Wickremesinghe, now wiser after the lessons of last Tuesday, needs to reach out both to the Party's old faithfuls as well as the young blood. Perhaps the UNP think tank itself should be re-organized, getting rid of those who hang on to the party leader like leeches for their own benefit, preventing others with more pragmatic approaches from reaching Mr. Wickremesinghe. Many within the party have voiced their disapproval of such individuals having ready access to the Opposition Leader and maybe now is the time to show them the door- the exit door.

Apart from all this what must also be bothering the UNP- and no less the PA- is the performance of the JVP. For the formerly renegade militants, Tuesday's elections were easily their best showing in decades. Whether it is a genuine gravitation of the youth vote towards the JVP or whether it is merely disenchantment with both the PA and the UNP, it is too premature to say.

Whatever it is, the former ultra-left rebels now hold the balance of power in the all-important Western Province. Soon after this became apparent, their leader Tilvin Silva made a categorical statement saying the JVP will support neither the PA nor the UNP to set up a provincial administration anywhere in the country but would vote in the Councils on an issue-by-issue basis. So, at long last, the JVP after being used and abused by both major political parties find themselves as kingmakers, at least in the Western Province- a truly encouraging metamorphosis. Now the JVP has got the opportunity to prove that it does what it says- from its members working without a salary to not going back to the temptation of power that flows from the barrel of a gun. If the JVP can survive, contribute constructively and even tilt the political scales within the democratic mainstream, that would be an enormous achievement. But many- except the 5.3% of the electorate that voted for the Party- are skeptical about this and justifiably so. That maybe why even though the "Unuth Ekai Munuth Ekai" concept- that both major political parties are equally bad- holds true to most voters they have desisted from voting for the JVP. The JVP therefore must grab this opportunity to put the doubts of the electorate at rest if it has plans of ever emerging as a potent third force in the political system.

Whether they succeed or not it is now apparent that only the JVP can even aspire for this role, as the traditional left, the Communist Party and the Lanka Samasamaja party appear to be spent forces and the Mahajana Eksath Peramuna struggles to survive in the arena.

Other observations, other than considerations regarding the major political parties are also in order in this discussion and the fairness of the poll merits mention.

It may be in order to grant some kudos to the Government for what was a relatively free poll but the disturbing trend here is that the yardstick for fairness now seems to be Wayamba! The urban regions were commendably free of incidents and even a post-election day curfew was not necessary but incidents did occur-notably in Hanguranketha in the Central Province, Mahiyanganaya in Uva and in several stations in the Kegalle district in the Sabaragamuwa. To answer these allegations with a tirade against what the UNP did during their heyday is not a solution. Poll rigging and intimidation must be rooted out and it is felt that the public outcry against Wayamba, molded in no small measure by the independent media was a sufficient deterrent against a "repeat" performance last Tuesday. Yet, it is still too premature to award a certificate of good conduct to this regime on that score and that must be deferred until the next General or Presidential polls! The other trend of note is the low voter turnout and the high percentage-seven to eight percent-of spoilt votes. Turnout dipped into the seventies- someone said due to the lack of impersonation!- and the inclement weather may have contributed but even so, a 71% turnout indicates public apathy, going by Sri Lankan standards. What is more alarming is the rejected votes. The Elections Commissioner noted after the last local government poll that many voters had crossed out the entire ballot paper indicating not that the voter did not know how to vote but that he was disgusted with the voting options presented to him.

The ballot is the sacred weapon of the voter and when the voter opts to discard it after taking the trouble to visit the polling booth he is conveying a message to our political parties. It is a strong indictment on the political system as well as those who thrive within it. This too must receive the attention of the political parties- that are now busy re-evaluating the 'manaapa' system-or else they themselves will be the ultimate victims. But for now, we know that almost all political parties must be conducting their own post-mortems and planning their next moves, with regard to what could be done in the newly elected Provincial Councils.

For all of them, and for the betterment of democracy in this country, they could use the lessons learnt last Tuesday and test them at yet another trial "match" before the "Big Match" later this year but not later than next year at the upcoming Southern Provincial Council election in June.

That election promises to be a no holds barred battle and would most certainly be the final test of the peoples' will before the General and Presidential elections. And the outcome of that poll, we may cautiously predict, might well be the crucial factor for President Chandrika Kumaratunga in deciding on which election to hold first- and when.

Editorial/Opinion Contents