In 'Foreign Scene' last week this columnist introduced A NEW COLD WAR
while my colleague Thalif Deen reporting from the glass house in New York
wrote on MERCENARIES: A new global problem. We were both identifying "Sea
Changes" the title of a collection of essays on American foreign policy
in a world transformed.
Discussing American policy we observed: NATO issued a stern warning.
The NATO chief Javier Solana announced that the alliance was ready and
ruled out no option. Both sides must ensure full respect for the demands
of the international community. The UN General Assembly had to discuss
and debate.
This we said was another clear demonstration that the U.N. can talk
but only NATO, the US-led military alliance calls the shots. Introducing.
THE NEW WORLD ORDER or a unipolar world, the post-Cold war world.
Will Europe, Japan, China and Russia say 'Aye, aye?' The Ayes have it.
Or more bluntly NATO decides, the final decision. A simple bow to a unipolar
world.
No defiant ones: no NOES?
And thus, Friday's headlines: NATO pummels Serb military targets in
Kosovo. Russia and China slam NATO but allies rally round. NATO cruise
missiles pound Yugoslavia! Yugoslav envoy compares NATO to fascist Italy!
There was one other item, quite brief:
Iraq denounces air strikes... Trust the wily Saddam to remain the defiant
one. Cocking a snook at the sole superpower, No.. Surely we can guess the
opinion trend in the Arab world.
Russia - China
The impact of the American action, cooly ignoring the other major powers,
can be and must be studied closely this week. If Primakov does visit China,
Japan, India etc., we may see a new Russian foreign policy at least a tilt.
Russia faces both ways - Europe and Asia.
But the diplomacy of the major powers will depend very much on the situation
in Kosovo, now described by the foreign journalists as "fluid".
Long before the explosion, Dejan Anastasijec who writes on national politics
in the Belgrade weekly, VREME, observed that the stance of Milosevic signals
a readiness to fight to the bitter end and what has already been irrecoverably
lost. Milosevic signals readiness to negotiate but still remains convinced
that a military victory is possible or an opportunity to "negotiate
from a position of strength, the knee-jerk reaction of all leaders and
regimes trapped in what is really a no-win situation. So the United Nations
remains trapped........ meaning of course the United States too President
Clinton. He has serious problems of his own. Thus the European Union, and
for muscle NATO.
A more optimistic opinion was presented by Dr. V.P. Gagnon, a fellow
at the Averill Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of Soviet Union, Colombia
University. Though the case he presented is several years old, his thesis
does identify the core issues. And it does make a provocative contribution
to the now popular debate on ethnic conflict, and conflict resolution.
On the crucial issue of the future of this troubled country of 24 million,
however there is still a sense of doubt among the country's leaders that
only through an intensified process of bilateral and multilateral negotiations
can the various nationalities find a lasting solution to the deep-seated
frictions resulting from the collapse of Tito's "self-management".
Now, note autonomous, decentralisation.
Foreign Policy
The reader should now pay attention to foreign policy and geo-politics.
Jawaharlal Nehru, the authentic architect of nonalignment recognized in
Tito, a patriot, a fiercely independent nationalist whose country stood
on the frontline of the new conflict, the Cold War - communism did not
matter since Tito did not follow the Soviet line.
Non-alignment gave the newly independent countries time to protect their
independence, while keeping at bay aggressive, rivalries. Nation-building
first in a multi-ethnic country.
Tito is dead; the Cold War is over. Today's wars and mini wars are over
race and religion, Christianity and Islam chiefly. It is not a foreign
foe that threatens the nation-state, while a hostile neighbour sometimes
sees a window of opportunity to advance its own interests, which usually
spells hegemonism, regional hegemony. Hence the non-alignment of Yugoslovia
governed by the League of Communists, with Stalin's U.S.S.R., the big neighbour.
Tito defied Stalin as early as 1948.
President Clinton, wounded by Monicagate seizes the Central European
crisis as a heaven-sent diversion.
Having recognised the danger in the West, meanwhile the ailing President
Yeltsin has evidently taken Prime Minister Primakov's advice - look, Moscow,
look east - meaning China, Japan and India. The global power-structure
will be quite different in the 21st century.
Hulftsdorp Hill
Editorial/Opinion Contents
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