The Situation Report

19th April 1998

Prabha's peace gambit

By Iqbal Athas.

Two months after the Kilinochchi debacle, the worst in the country's 17-year-long separatist war, the ongoing "Operation Jaya Sikurui" (Victory Assured) remains stalemated.

Launched on May 13, 1997, its main aim – to establish a land based Main Supply Route (MSR) from the rest of Sri Lanka to Jaffna – is yet to be accomplished. The operation which now encompasses some 28,000 troops including policemen is now on its 19th month. They remain dug in on either side of A 9, the Kandy – Jaffna highway.

The new Security Forces Commander for Wanni, Major General Lionel Balagalle, who assumed command early this month, has chaired a string of conferences with the military top brass in the Wanni in the past weeks. The idea appears to be to consolidate the territory regained from Nochchimodai (north of Vavuniya) to Mankulam without making it vulnerable to any major counter attacks.

The move has seen small scale operations where troops ventured ahead of the defensive positions to take on small concentrations of Tiger guerrillas. A major thrust or a renewed "Operation Jaya Sikurui" is certainly not likely until next year, the very last year before both Parliamentary and Presidential elections are scheduled. It is no secret that adequate resources are being awaited. That includes even strength. The Army has already launched an ambitious countrywide recruitment drive to enlist 20,000 soldiers.

The periodic stalemate of "Operation Jaya Sikurui" has remained the subject of serious concern for President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, who has now taken over the reins of directing the military campaign against Tiger guerrillas. This is immediately in the wake of the debacles at Paranthan and Kilinochchi.

The magnitude of this military disaster, which topped a string of other counter attacks during the 19 month long operation, remains buried due to the ongoing military censorship. Even if the outside world knew most of the details, Sri Lankans are still unaware of the carnage, the human and material losses, all of which contribute to the phenomenal rise in defence expenditure and a debilitating effect on the economy.

But the fact that President Kumaratunga has personally taken control of the situation itself underscores the ground realities. As reported in these columns, senior military leaders prosecuting the war have been assured that no more pressure in the form of deadlines would be exerted on them. They have been told of Government's requirement and called upon to accomplish it in reasonable time. The task of formulating strategies and the tactics to be used are to be left in their hands.

Senior military officials speak of the incisive interest President Kumaratunga had shown at National Security Council and other top level security conferences. Besides ruling on some contentious issues, she has also relieved service commanders from making procurements directly. The subject has now been brought under the Ministry of Defence.

Last week President Kumaratunga ordered the cancellation of a procurement deal by the Sri Lanka Army to acquire 60 light vehicles. After tender procedure has been gone through, even the Treasury had granted approval for the multi million rupee deal. But President Kumaratunga felt the Army had an adequate fleet of vehicles.

Yet, one significant element glaringly lacking over the recent setbacks and debacles is the all important question of accountability. A Military Court of Inquiry has probed Paranthan and Kilinochchi incidents. Like Courts of Inquiry into other similar instances, it will go into the limbo of forgotten things. Many are instances where those indicted for serious lapses have ended up with promotions and decorations.

That is on the military front. On the political side, sections of the PA Government tried to justify the role of a politician personally getting involved in the conduct of the war, how it should be planned and executed. The arguments were morbidly comical and many. In short, they appeared to suggest that the enemy would have achieved their objective had it not been for the role played by the politician in question.

That apart, past weeks have seen seriously increasing concerns for the defence establishment. If there was a stalemate over "Operation Jaya Sikurui", the same period saw a marked shift in the Government's security priorities.

Reports of increased levels of LTTE infiltration into the peninsula were followed by intelligence claims of possible attacks. Tiger warnings had already brought the functioning of Courts in the peninsula to a standstill. Efforts had been made to shut down schools and bring transport services to a halt. Civilians living in areas close to military camps were ordered to vacate their homes.

Fears began to exacerbate not only after the LTTE re-capture of Kilinochchi, described as the gateway to Jaffna, but also because of the "Maveerar Week" (Heroes Week) that ended last Friday. The week, from November 20 to 27, as in the past, is observed to honour what the LTTE calls its "martyrs" and culminates with leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran's birthday. Last Friday (the day after his birthday), Prabhakaran went on air over the clandestine "Voice of Tigers" to make his annual "policy statement." Details of what he said this year will follow.

For weeks ahead of the seven day "Maveerar" remembrances, the Government went on to intensify security in the Jaffna peninsula and neighbouring areas. Troops were inducted into the area and additional security precautions were made. The move was a marked shift in focus, one from concentrating all resources and attention on "Operation Jaya Sikurui" to preventing untoward incidents in the Jaffna peninsula, until now the only showpiece of achievement in the Government's four year old campaign against Tiger guerrillas though it has lost most of its lustre. The loss has been its inability to effectively restore a civil administration and its failure to effectively ward off LTTE attempts to destabilise the peninsula in the recent months.

Fears of LTTE attacks in the peninsula gained momentum particularly after the Tigers launched a psy war campaign. One of the LTTE notices circulated in Jaffna spoke of how "the clouds of war is looming large in the peninsula" and pledged that the "great leader is preparing to redeem the soil of Jaffna…." (See montage of this notice, obtained by the security forces, on this page)

Enhancing security in the peninsula by moving men and material has been no easy task. The onset of the north east monsoon has made maritime movements difficult. Added to that is the inadequacy of the Sri Lanka Navy to provide security cover to such movements. The "Operation Jaya Sikurui" stalemate has denied the Government a land based Main Supply Route (MSR) to Jaffna. Hence only an air corridor is the only choice to move men and material to secure Jaffna.

That has been no easy task with the Sri Lanka Air Force operating only two AN 32 aircraft. This led to the requisitioning of aircraft from a private operator but that helped only in operating flight after flight to re-inforce the peninsula. Other serious problems continued to remain, like bringing in troops from the peninsula on holiday, their return or the movement of food supplies, particularly meat and fish.

In a note to the Ministry of Defence, Army Commander, Lt. Gen. Rohan de S. Daluwatte, underscored not only the seriousness of the situation but also the adverse impact these developments had on the morale of the troops. Ministry officials, however, explain that the problem will ease when the Hercules C 130 transport planes now on order arrive. But the officials would not comment on how the SLAF, once a coveted service, had deteriorated to such levels particularly after billions of rupees had been spent on procurements. In fact some of these procurements have now become the subject of an official Committee of Inquiry.

Though this Committee, appointed in April, this year, was called upon to forward its report in eight weeks, (before May 30 this year), even six months after, the sittings are continuing. This is because the Committee has now come by an unexpected volume of evidence, some, which I understand, are not only startling but also run counter to the claims made before it earlier by those in uniform and outside it.

The fact that the Committee's report has been delayed had caused some concern at the highest levels of the Government. One source said President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga was prompted to remark that their report was expected in "two months and not two years." But its Chairman, Christie Silva, one time Secretary to the Ministry of Health, explained more time was needed. Understandably the Committee wanted to do the job it has been tasked very well. The shift in focus from "Operation Jaya Sikurui" to the Jaffna peninsula also had its critics in the security establishment. There was an influential section that were angered that defence planners were simply reacting to every measure the LTTE took. "After we have such a big build up in Jaffna, what if the Tigers choose to hit somewhere else ? Say outside the peninsula and the Wanni ?," a senior Major General, who did not wish to be identified asked.

He said that in such an eventuality the biggest problem would be to shift the troops. How would a fledgling SLAF cope with such an eventuality. "Soon after the Paranthan and Kilinochchi attacks, the biggest problem we had was to ferry re-inforcements. That became a nightmare with only one AN 32 operational," he said.

If a shift in focus from the Wanni to the Jaffna peninsula pre-occupied the security establishment in the past weeks, it was a different story for the LTTE. In the Wanni, it was not only a number of events that marked "Maveerar Week." It also saw the wedding of Karikalan, the Tiger Political Wing leader, to Dr. Pathma Losani, also an active LTTE worker. The ceremonies in Puthukudiruppu was attended by Anton Balasingham, LTTE ideologue, Soosai, Sea Tiger leader but Prabhakaran was not present.

The days before "Maveerar Week", according to intelligence sources in Colombo, saw the LTTE shifting some of their key camps located on the eastern fringe of the A9 Kandy-Jaffna highway. Exhibitions had been held in some of the schools with arms and ammunition captured from the security forces being put on display. School children had been invited to take part in essay competitions. Video clips of the LTTE attack on Paranthan and Kilinochchi military camps had been screened periodically.

The culmination of these events saw Prabhakaran making his annual "Heroes Day" broadcast over the Voice of Tigers last Friday. Summarising the speech in three paragraphs, this is what an LTTE press release from its "International Secretariat" in London, delivered to the media in Colombo, said:

"Mr V. Pirapaharan the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in his message to mark the anniversary of the Heroes' Day, blamed the growing entrenchment of Sinhala Buddhist chauvinism and militarism in Sri Lankan politics as stumbling blocks for a negotiated political settlement of the Tamil ethnic conflict.

"The LTTE leader lamented that the racist attitudes, approaches and policies of the Sinhala governing elites have not radically changed over the last half-a-century while many of the intractable ethnic conflicts of the world have been resolved by the process of peace negotiations and reconciliation. The rigid and irreconcilable position of the Sri Lankan Government, Mr. Pirapaharan noted, is being encouraged and reinforced by the large scale financial aid and military assistance provided by some foreign countries who seem to disregard the monumental tragedy faced by the Tamil people by Sinhala state oppression.

"The leader of the Tamil Tigers declared that the LTTE is prepared for a negotiated political settlement if peace talks are mediated by a third party. Mr. Pirapaharan said that peace negotiations cannot take place under the prevailing conditions of war, violence and oppression. The LTTE, he said, prefers to hold talks in an atmosphere of peace and normalcy, in a congenial environment free from military aggression, occupation and economic blockades imposed on the Tamil homeland. He explained that peace talks cannot be free, fair and just if the Sri Lanka Government utilizes military aggression and economic strangulation as political pressures on the Tamil community". But other accounts contained more details of the speech. The Tamilnet website on the Internet gave more details where it quoted Prabhakaran as saying "We are not stipulating any pre-conditions for peace talks. We are suggesting the creation of a climate of peace and goodwill to hold peace talks, a congenial environment in which our people must be free from the heavy burden of suffering imposed on them."

Prabhakaran also criticised President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. He said "We do not believe that Chandrika, who has become the author of the most blood stained chapter in the history of oppression of the Tamils, will bring peace to the country by resolving the Tamil national issue by peaceful means…" and added….. "she is a firm believer in a military solution and lives in an illusion that political conflicts can be solved by military means….."

The Tamilnet, quoting the clandestine Voice of Tigers, also give an account about the events that took place on Friday evening. This is what it said:

"Velupillai Prabakaran leader of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam saluted the slain heroes of the movement in the Vanni ceremony marking the Maaveerar's Day, the VoT said.

"The radio said that he lighted the traditional lamp at 6.07 p.m. the Vanni time today after the salutation at 6.06 p.m. (The time in the Vanni region is half an hour late from the time of the army controlled area of the country).

"The field commanders and area leaders of the LTTE followed their leader Prabakaran and lighted the oil lamp in respect of their l3,233 slain heroes today, said sources in Vanni. The traditional functions of the Maveerar of the LTTE were observed widely in Maveerar Thuilum lllam (cemeteries where the dead LTTE cadres were cremated and considered to be the holy place), camps of the LTTE, institutions, government and private sections, public places and houses all over the Vanni, the radio said. "The oil lamp was lighted at the same time widely by the field commanders and area leaders.

"Special Commander of the Sea Tigers Soosai lighted the lamp at Mulliyawalai, Assistant Commander of the Sea Tigers Vaani at Alampil, Commander Col. Karunaa at Visvamadu, Commander, Col. Theepan at Kanagapuram in Kilinochchi district, Commander Lt. Col. Vithusha at Thunukkai in Mankulam area, Commander Veeman at Vannivilaankulam in Vavunikulam area, David at Poonagary in Mulankaavil area, Political Wing Leader Karikaalan at Aandaankulam in Mannar district and Suthaakar at Pandivirichchaan.

"The Voice of Tiger said that the anti aircraft wing unit of the LTTE was deployed all over Wanni to give protection from the assumed attacks of the SLAF during the Maaveerar Celebrations to the Tiger cadres and the public who witnessed the ceremony.

"The radio added that the Air Tigers sprayed flowers from two air crafts of the LTTE flying low in the Vanni region over the Maveerar cemeteries and a large number of people witnessed the scene happily.

"Sources said that this is the first time that LTTE has celebrated its Maaveerar's Day celebrations in a colourful way after withdrawing from Jaffna peninsula in 1995.

"The Voice of Tigers (VoT) radio also said in its night broadcast today, that aircraft of the Air Tigers sprinkled flowers on the LTTE's Heroes' memorials in the Vanni this evening during the Maaveerar day ceremonies.

"The radio did not specify the number of aircraft which flew today or whether they were helicopters or fixed wing planes. The announcement comes after weeks of speculation that the Liberation Tigers had established an air wing, following press reports that unidentified aircraft had been spotted in the Vanni.

"Despite denials by the Sri Lankan Deputy Defence Minister that the reports were untrue, defence analysts said there was credible evidence that the Tigers were in possession of at least one aircraft".

The above account confirms what local intelligence agencies have been claiming in the past months – the LTTE had acquired aircraft. Are they helicopters or fixed wing ? Intelligence is yet to acquire hard evidence. But the fact that the LTTE has now acquired an air arm, however small it is, has now been formally confirmed. Of course, Deputy Defence Minister, General Anuruddha Ratwatte, who claimed there were no truth about these aircraft being acquired has fooled himself again. According to foreign intelligence channels, the LTTE is learnt to have acquired two piston driven fixed wing aircraft. They had been assembled in the Wanni after being smuggled through the north east coast in knocked down condition. These sources say the LTTE had now created "Sky Tigers" after training some of its cadres (including the so called Black Tigers) to fly these aircraft in a private aeronautical academy in a well known foreign capital. It is quite clear that the Government will not respond to Prabhakaran's call for peace talks. Even before he made his plea for third party mediation, President Kumaratunga has made it clear that the Government did not want a third party mediatory role.

Hence, the LTTE leader has offered an olive branch whilst preparing for protracted war.

As for the PA Government, it seems clear that the battle lines are getting more defined as 1999, the last year in this 20th century, comes to a close. Hence, there appears little doubt that this war of attrition will continue into the new millennium. That is with all the political pontification and propaganda notwithstanding.

Taraki's Column

Editorial/Opinion Contents