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1st March 1998

Saddam Hussein tamed: Who next?

By Mervyn de Silva

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"Whose Sanctions, UN or US?" That was the question this column posed last Sunday. Well, we know the answer now, though some commentators, American rather than European or Asian, argue that nothing has been settled.

In the matter of sanctions, the will of the United Nations has been more effective than that of the White House. Whether this balance will soon change, we cannot say. What is the role and the authority of the United Nations in what is now universally described as a "unipolar world"? In terms of post-war politics, this could well be as decisive a moment as 1947, half a century ago, when George Kennan, a young American diplomat, contributed an article signed "X" to FOREIGN AFFAIRS. Let's see.

Meanwhile we may go along with the widely accepted concept of a US dominated international system, but not quite unipolar. If the distribution of power in the world system is changing, as the nature and measurement of power changes, then our judgments must necessarily be tentative. We can only rejoice for now in the fact that an able new-generation Sri Lankan diplomat may be present at the creation. For the leader of the "sole superpower", President Clinton, DESERT STORM 2 (soon a movie?) may be a perfectly timed diversion from troubled, and quite painful domestic affairs...... if that phrase is appropriate.

But back to Baghdad, the centre stage. Here is an excerpt from a British correspondent, Roula Khalaf:"

"There is an old Iraqi saying "adds a public employee standing nearby, you can't be afraid of the rain when you're already wet". Ali's friend Jasseem two weeks ago dutifully heeded President Saddam Hussein's call for a jihad or holy war and joined the volunteer force to help fight the Americans. He knows he can do little with his old battered Kalashnikov in the face of missiles and air strikes the US has threatened to inflict on Iraq unless Mr. Saddam allows free access to UN inspectors charged with dismantling Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. But Ali says training for war is a spiritual exercise.

How does the man-in-the-street see the situation? The same correspondent observed:

"To ordinary Iraqis, however they might feel about their government, another US-led military campaign can only amplify the deep-seated suspicion that the US has grand designs to take over their country. The US claim that it has no quarrel with the Iraqi people only with Mr. Saddam Hussein's regime rings hollow in Baghdad "reported correspondent Khalaf.

Big Money:

The United States and its loyal partner, Britain, are not taking too many chances. In 1990, soon after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait (it claimed Kuwait was historically a province of Iraq) both the C. I. A. and M. I. 6, Britain's external intelligence agency, came under severe attack by both the political establishment as well as the press. President Saddam had tricked these famous "covert agencies". But there was a more serious explanation. US and British business were keen to please President Saddam. Why? Petro-dollars.

And President Saddam was one of the Arab world's big spenders. Thousands of South Asians, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Sri Lankans, from members of Parliament and trade unionists to artists and media personnel, were guests of an affluent, and generous BAATH party, and the Cultural and Information Ministries.

In an interview with British reporter, Jimmy Burns, a MI 6 officer said: "During the 1980's we were constrained by the unwillingness of ministers and their officials to take any risk at all in getting intelligence or making use of it. There was a feeling in the Foreign Office that any intelligence that might force a change in trade policy and diplomacy in the region was just not worth pursuing...."

Last week British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook told a full House of Commons debate, that the chances of Iraqi retaliation would be low. But if Iraq hit back, the UK will join the US in "a proportionate response". Asked about his public commitment to" an ethical foreign policy" he referred to President Hussein's "violation of human rights".

We are confronted by a dictator threatening the security of the region and the lives of his people. "The irony was not lost on Labour left-wingers. Not so many years ago, Mr. Cook would have joined them in voting against the government" wrote lobby correspondent John Kampfner. But such situations are quite familiar in most parliaments where Left-inclined M. P's have to face post-Cold war realities.

New trends need to be watched. Some radical anti-western Arab groups are becoming more anti-West or anti-American than pro-Saddam Arab organisations. The anti-Americanism or anti-West sentiment has a strongly pro - Islam, pro-Iran accent. Another trend is anti-Israel sentiment even in Arab organisations that were conservative, pro-West. Take Jordan for instance, traditionally pro-British...... more pro-British than pro - American: As a result King Hussein was reasonably cordial even in dealings with the arrogant, hardline Prime Minister Netanyahu. And Netanyahu, despite all the pressure from the White House, has resisted all "concessions" to the PLO, concessions granted by the Labour party regime ousted by the rightwing Likud-led Alliance. Egypt, the strongest Arab state, and a cosignatory to a historic accord, is once again attempting to recover its traditional role as "natural leader" of the Arab world.

Other anti-Israel, anti-US Arab countries, reading the signs and nervous, are assuming a more activist role. After Saddam who? Muammar Gaddafi.

The Ayatollahs must be smiling.....


Hulftsdorp Hill

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