Ranil
Wickremesinghe: "clearly having fun, being in the opposition"
The
UNP is at grave risk of losing the next elections (year 2000) but its not
because of its prevarication with the political package. The UNP seems
uninspired, period. But, as for its ambivalent stand on the package, its a pure
trick that the UNP leadership has up its sleeve. From the UNP’s own
partisan point of view, its not such a bad trick either, despite what most
political analysts have said.
Though the UNP leader may not be accused of having the smarts the departed Mr. J. R. Jayewardene had , he has a few of the prevaricating ways that both government and the opposition resort to. It appears that he has, on the face of it, rejected the package in toto, by saying that he is in favour of the 13th amendment.
But, he has left his options open. Mr. Wickremesinghe, being in the opposition, has the luxury of not taking a firm stand. Some say he has taken a firm stand by talking of the 13th amendment in India. But then, it was the same Mr. wickremesinghe who signed a “bipartisan treaty “ ( ha ha ha!!!) with the government some months ago. The bipartisan treaty was greeted with hosannas from many quarters, particularly intellectual quarters. Either these people were all being very polite, or all being very gullible.
From a bipartisan treaty, Mr. Wickremesinghe went into a period of flux where he waxed and waned in his approach to the package. He was clearly having fun, being in the opposition! Now he has said that he prefers the 13th Amendment. But, who is to say that he will not go back to a compromise situation of backing the package, if he needs to?
But, Mr. Wickremesinghe is not sure that he will need to. So he plays the game of confusing government while shooting his mouth off on the package, whenever and wherever he wants to.
Mr. Wickereme-singhe is in many ways playing the same game that the government is playing. The government is having problems, or so they say, in not winning the co-operation of the UNP to see the package through parliament. So, what does the government do? It prevaricates, drags its feet.
If the UNP is not backing the package in parliament (and that’s the PA’s hurdle in seeing it through parliament) the PA can exercise the option of the referendum. Will the PA run the risk of jeopardising its cherished political image as an efficient peace-seeking government by making the political package dependent on a electoral toss-up?
The government does have the luxury of the anti-packagistas and the UNP to blame. The government can find several reasons to cancel plans for a referendum, which it will most likely do. Even if its the people’s voice, if the government loses a referendum on the package, it will be the end of the road for the government which prides itself as being ideologically very astute.
Its patently absurd to think that the PA will have a free ride with a (non-binding ) referendum. Hypothetically, even if the UNP does not campaign against a referendum there will be many others who will campaign against it as if their lives depended on it. This will include the Sangha, and the amorphous but volatile Sinhala lobby which can whip itself up into a major force in its own right.
In today’s ambiguous political clutter, the UNP itself can campaign against the referendum, even if its own “riders” are attached to the Bill on which the people are asked to vote. The UNP can always say that some of Bill may be its own baby as well, but that the government is throwing the baby with the bathwater. Or something to that effect.
Already, the UNP leader has distanced himself from the Select Committee. By the time the campaign for a referendum comes (if that event ever occurs) the UNP leadership will effectively be able to say that its stand is not what some of its members endorsed at the Select Committee. This of course strains credibility, but as if any politics is credible these days. (Most people don’t know the first thing about a Select Committee in any event.)
So, in a way that brings matters to square one. The government will think a fifteen-hundred times before it holds a referendum. The government is not going to hold talks with the LTTE on the package, (and after every thing is negotiated and is hunky-dory with the LTTE) present a document to the people. That’s wishful thinking of the highest degree, and the people who say its possible, know it isn’t.
On a higher plane of discourse (tut tut) it all has to do with the political culture of this country. The ethnic crisis has spawned its own political culture, which would have been a terribly terribly funny joke had it not been for the gravity of the matters at issue. (Remember, was it Stalin who said something about one step forward, two steps back and swing around the truth? ) That was said about bureaucracy, but most political behaviour regarding the ethnic issue amounts to political prevarication of a high order. Its easy to carry out this prevarication, when most of the issues at hand are quite abstruse to the average Joe or Perera. (Non binding referendum, Select Committee, devolved powers etc.)
Mirth apart, the easiest thing is to say that a compromise solution is impossible. That’s a convenient stand to take, because it can be used to postpone referendums, to ignore Select Committee proceedings etc., when it’s convenient. The problem is so intractable, or made to appear so intractable, that attention spans are limited.
What was done yesterday with a solemn oath is forgotten the next month. And so it goes. In this political culture, the UNP can afford to be as temperamental as the government is evasive. This column predicted several instalments ago that the bipartisan agreement between the government and the opposition was a nonevent.
Maybe we can chance our arm on another prediction: the package will most probably be a nonevent as well, but the country won’t even feel it after its discussed to death.
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