Will Bill Clinton be the first Democrat to be elected for a second term after Franklin Delano Roosevelt, himself a four-term president? A constitutional amendment now restricts presidential terms to two.
On November 3, 1992 Bill Clinton beat George Bush by a convincing 43% to 38% of the popular vote, with Ross Perot polling 19 percent. While Bush had distinguished himself in foreign affairs and scored a resounding triumph in Desert Storm against Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, Americans perferred the candidate who promised to turn the economy around. While Bush seemed out of touch with America’s economic anxieties, Clinton unveiled an economic recovery strategy that sought to spur new investment, tax credits, infrastructure spending, overhaul of the health care system and college education loans. He promised to halve the growing national budget deficit within four years.
At the end of four years Clinton has not achieved all that he hoped to do. Early in his presidency, he failed to focus on the main issues and spent too much time on promoting peripheral items such as gay and lesbian rights and in preparing comprehensive legislation for health care.
There were flip-flops with appointments to key positions as in the recommendation of Zoe Baird to the position of Attorney General. He was accused of “waffling” instead of being decisive. He had foreign policy reversals in Somalia and in Bosnia, where he dragged his feet.
Clinton and wife Hillary were the target of accusations on their past financial transactions. The Whitewater land deal and other scandals persisted throughout the four years. In one opinion poll, voters said that Clinton and Hilary do not have “honesty and integrity”. At the mid-term congressional elections in November 1944 the Republicans won handsomely gaining control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives with their “contract with America”, now stalled, Clinton’s prospects for a second term looked gloomy.
The bombing of the federal building in Oklahoma City, tragic though it was, enabled Clinton to vow that he would find the perpetrators. Earlier, his administration had been successful in bringing to book those who were responsible for the bombing of the World Trade Centre in New York City in 1992. And he has now launched a missile attack on targets in Iraq.
Morever, the economy has turned around and Clinton’s economic record is clearly positive. Low inflation, low interest rates, more than ten million jobs in four years. Clinton says, “I have a much better ability now to deal with the ups and downs and the pressures of the presidency”. Foreign affairs has been a tonic; the Middle East peace process moved along promisingly until the election of Benjamin Natanyahu as prime minister of Israel.
Clinton was uncontested in the primaries while Dole faced a number of bruising contests with Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes. Dole eventually resigned from the Senate to concentrate on the presidential race. When the primaries were over it seemed as if Clinton would have no difficulty in securing a second term. In mid-August, Dole was trailing behind Clinton by 20 points.
At the carefully modulated republican Convention in San Diego, all controversy was removed, Pat Buchanan endorsed Dole and Dole made what has been widely acclaimed as the most eloquent speech of his long career. The gap in the polls was reduced to single digits. One possible explanation was Dole’s selection of Jack Kemp as his running mate, even though the preferred choice would have been former chief of staff Colin Powell.
Kemp provides the Republican ticket with everything that Dole lacks. While Dole is a taciturn 73-year-old World War II veteran from Kansas, Kemp is younger (61), a football hero from Los Angeles, California. He is energetic and obsessed with ideas. Both can be considered internationalist. Dole came out strongly in favour of American support for the beleaguered Bosnians while Kemp is committed to free trade and to the economic development of former communist countries. Both speak of American leadership in the world.
In his acceptance speech at the Democratic Convention in Chicago, Clinton spoke eloquently on his four years at the White House. But a short while before he did so, the news came through that his campaign strategist and close friend, Dick Morris, had tendered his resignation following a report in a supermarket tabloid newspaper that he had consorted with a prostitute.
Even though this has nothing to do with Clinton directly, it brings to the fore questions about the type of person whose company the President keeps. The extent to which this would harm Clinton’s re-election prospects remains to be seen.
Actually, there is little difference in the platforms of the two main political parties. The Republicans have usually been the more “conservative” and the Democrats have been labelled as “liberal”, an image which they are not always happy about. Presidential candidates often try to avoid extreme positions and are eager to win the large constituency of “middle voters” Clinton has responded to Dole’s promise of a 15 percent tax cut for all across the board, that “indiscriminate tax cuts would undercut medicare, medicaid, education and the environment”. Voters say that the economy and jobs, crime and drugs are the main concerns.
A generational clash is evident in this election. There has never been a larger gap in age between the two main candidates - a difference of 23 years, Dole tried to make a virtue out of his age by speaking of his vast experience, on the battlefield and in Congress. He chided the “baby bloomers” of Clinton’s generation. He promised to build a bridge to the past. Clinton’s immediate response: “What is needed is not to look at the past but to build bridges to the future”.
The economy could dominate the campaign. Dole’s promised 15 percent tax cut, while balancing the budget, is contrary to his earlier advocacy of fiscal caution. Clinton ‘s carefully drafted centrist economic platform is committed to fiscal prudence. He has targeted for a $110 billion tax cut intended to balance the budget by 2002 A.D., while protecting medicare, medicaid, and investment in education and the environment.
On present trends Clinton should regain the presidency for a second term. However, with over sixty days of campaigning left, it is too early to be certain. A number of factors could yet affect the outcome: the fallout from the Dick Morris episode, the extent of support for Ross Perot and even developments in the Middle East. Moreover, the “Character issue” lurks in the background. Personal problems have continuously dogged Clinton and Hillary. But whoever wins this election, neither Clinton nor Dole will contest another presidential election.
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