Columns

Twenty-one days have passed since the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a campaign of unprovoked aggression against Iran that has set West Asia ablaze. What was marketed to the American public as a “surgical” strike to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure has rapidly devolved into a campaign of state-sponsored assassinations and regional destabilisation. As of today, March 22, the world is witnessing not the “regime collapse” promised by the Trump administration, but a catastrophic economic and military quagmire that threatens to drag the global community into a decade of darkness.

A war of choice, not necessity

The initial pretext for this war—the alleged imminent threat of Iranian nuclear breakout—has been consistently undermined by facts. Even as the strikes began on February 28, the administration’s own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, had recently testified that there was no evidence Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had authorised a nuclear weapons programme.

Despite this, Washington and Tel Aviv unleashed nearly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours alone. The objective has since shifted from non-proliferation to a chaotic attempt at regime decapitation. The assassination of the Supreme Leader on the first day, followed by the targeted killing of senior official Ali Larijani on March 17, has effectively killed any hope for a diplomatic off-ramp. Instead of a “pro-Western” uprising, these actions have forced the Iranian leadership to entrench, appointing the hardline Mojtaba Khamenei and signalling a transition to a permanent war footing.

Economic warfare: The $115 barrel and the global tax

While the U.S. remains somewhat insulated by domestic production, the rest of the world is drowning in the economic fallout of Operation Epic Fury. The conflict has triggered the most significant energy supply disruption in history.

• The oil shock: Brent Crude has surged from $70 to over $115 per barrel. In the U.S., gasoline prices have jumped by 23%, but the pain is far worse globally—Australia has seen a 32% hike, while developing nations like Laos and Nigeria are facing increases of nearly 40%.
• The Strait of Hormuz stranglehold: Iran’s retaliatory closure of the Strait—through which 20% of global oil and 20% of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) passes—has effectively removed 10 million barrels per day from the market.
• The “Hormuz Surcharge”: Shipping costs for ingredients and industrial chemicals arriving from West Asia have soared by 40%, as cargo vessels are forced to detour thousands of miles around the Cape of Good Hope.

The United Nations World Food Program has issued a chilling warning: if this war continues into the summer, 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity due to the skyrocketing costs of fuel and fertilizer.

Military stalemate: Technology vs. tenacity

The Trump administration appears to have vastly underestimated the Iranian “Axis of Resistance.” While the U.S. and Israel boast unparalleled air superiority, the military reality on the ground is one of “horizontal escalation.”

Iran’s strategy of “Forward Defence” has turned the region into a trial by fire. Drones and missiles have not only hit Israel but have struck critical infrastructure in Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE. In Lebanon, the humanitarian cost is staggering; Israeli strikes have left over 1,000 dead and displaced a tenth of the population. Far from being “defeated,” the Iranian resistance is digging in, using asymmetric warfare to ensure that every day the U.S. remains in the region, the political and financial cost becomes more unsustainable.

The NATO schism and global Isolation

President Trump’s recent rhetoric, labelling NATO allies “cowards” and “foolish” for their lack of enthusiasm, highlights a profound diplomatic failure. Many allies, including France, Germany, and the UK, have pointed out that they were never consulted. They view the war as a violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter—a war of aggression lacking any legitimate self-defence justification.

By embarking on this “Epic Fury” without a coalition, the U.S. has painted itself into a strategic corner. The administration is now forced to divert massive resources from other global theatres to protect its bases in the Gulf, leaving its domestic “America First” agenda in tatters as inflation becomes a permanent fixture of the 2026 economy.

The challenges of an impossible victory

As the conflict enters its second month, the U.S. faces insurmountable hurdles:

1.   The absence of an ally: Without NATO support, the U.S. bears the full financial burden of a war that is costing billions per week.

2.   The legitimacy gap: Images of a destroyed girls’ school near Bandar Abbas, where 170 civilians were killed by U.S. strikes, have turned global opinion decisively against the operation.

3.  The failed regime change: Assassinations have only replaced pragmatic negotiators with hardline ideologues, making a peace treaty impossible.

4.   Domestic backlash: Rising utility bills and a 7.5% jump in U.S. gasoline prices are beginning to erode the administration’s support at home.

Operation Epic Fury is not a victory; it is a monument to the dangers of unilateralism.

(javidyusuf@gmail.com)