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The governance crisis of 2022 and 2023 took its toll not only on Sri Lanka’s economy but, perhaps more devastatingly, on its political fabric. For decades after independence, despite many governance shortcomings, the country managed to uphold its image as a functioning and vibrant democracy—one that protected the poor and ensured that the most marginalised were not left completely behind.

In the post-independence era, Sri Lanka’s social indicators in health and education remained far superior to those of countries with comparable economic growth, as the World Health Organization recently reaffirmed in Colombo. Yet when the economy crashed in 2022, the shock was not confined to livelihoods—it shook the very foundations of political stability.

The United National Party (UNP), once a dominant political force, collapsed to its lowest point in history. The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) fractured beyond recognition. Even the once-powerful Rajapaksa brand could no longer inspire confidence, prompting many Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) stalwarts to refrain from contesting the 2024 elections.

Consequently, the election became a two-horse race between the National People’s Power (NPP) and the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), with the former emerging victorious. While the NPP’s success deserves separate analysis, the fall out is equally noteworthy: the opposition’s efforts to regroup and the SJB’s choice to stand apart.

As opposition parties struggled to recover from electoral defeat, the government handed them an unexpected rallying point by arresting former President Ranil Wickremesinghe on charges widely seen as flimsy and targetted. Several parties seized upon this incident as an opportunity to unite under the banner of defending democracy. Their plan has culminated in a proposed joint opposition rally in Nugegoda on November 21.

However, the SJB—the largest opposition bloc in Parliament—announced that it would not participate. Parliamentarian  S. M. Marikkar confirmed on Friday that the party’s Management Committee had  decided to abstain. Though the reasons were not publicly detailed, the logic behind this decision is evident.

In a political landscape populated by failed and discredited actors, the SJB’s choice reflects political prudence. Under Sajith Premadasa’s leadership, the party seeks to position itself as the sole credible alternative to both the governing NPP and the remnants of the Rajapaksa establishment. Sharing a platform with parties largely blamed for the country’s political and economic decline would only erode the SJB’s carefully cultivated distinctiveness.

The November 21 rally is being organised by factions of the SLPP, sections of the SLFP, and remnants of the UNP— many of whom are figures with tarnished political records. Though the concept of a “united opposition” may appear attractive in theory, unity without shared purpose or principle seldom produces meaningful outcomes. A coalition of ideologically incompatible actors—communal, neoliberal, and opportunistic alike—cannot credibly present an alternative vision for the country.

The SJB’s decision is best understood through the lens of credibility. The SLPP presided over the worst economic crisis in post-independence history, marked by fiscal recklessness and cronyism. The SLFP, once a mass-based people’s movement, has declined into insignificance. The UNP, though historically the leading national level party, has been reduced to a token presence, burdened by the legacy of its coalition with the SLPP during the final stages of the post 2022 crisis.

For the SJB—a party born out of disillusionment with the UNP’s failures—to now share a stage with those very actors would be politically self-defeating. It would strengthen the public narrative that “all politicians are the same.” The SJB has built its reputation as a younger, reform-minded, and relatively untainted force in
Sri Lankan politics. Preserving that image is essential to its future viability.

Political optics matter as much as substance. The public remembers that during the 2022 Aragalaya uprising, Sajith Premadasa resisted joining a caretaker administration propped up by the same discredited actors who had overseen the economic collapse. His reasoning then was clear: the SJB would not serve as a façade for a compromised regime in which the communal and corrupt sat together.

Had Premadasa joined such a government, the SJB’s integrity would have been irreparably damaged. The same logic applies to the present moment. Associating with parties responsible for the crisis would only taint the SJB by association.

A further dimension to this issue is the nature of the current NPP administration. Although ostensibly rooted in the JVP’s leftist tradition, the government’s policy trajectory has largely followed IMF-guided fiscal orthodoxy—emphasizing austerity, private-sector reform, and market discipline.

For the SJB, this duality represents both a challenge as well as an opportunity. The opportunity lies in articulating a more coherent “social democratic” alternative: one that marries economic reform with social equity and institutional accountability.

To do so, the SJB must maintain ideological clarity and independence. Joining an opposition rally dominated by remnants of the old political order would only blur that distinction. Staying away, therefore, is not isolationist; it is strategically differentiating.

Sri Lanka’s recent political history offers cautionary lessons. The Yahapalana coalition of 2015–2019 began with the promise of reform but collapsed under ideological incoherence and mutual distrust. Its failure demonstrated that alliances without shared principles inevitably breed disillusionment.

The SJB, born from that experience, probably believes that repeating the same mistake is counter productive. The electorate has little appetite for another temporary coalition driven by expediency rather than conviction.

By refusing to participate in the November 21 rally, the SJB is asserting a principle: that credible opposition requires independence, not opportunistic alliances. The party is signalling its readiness to contest on its own terms, with integrity and coherence as its foundation.

True opposition lies not in sharing a platform but in offering an alternative path. In an era when credibility is the rarest political commodity, the SJB’s choice to stand alone may ultimately become its greatest strength.

(javidyusuf@gmail.com)