Editorial

The skewed local government election system has thrown up hung councils around the country, forcing mainstream political parties to desperately strike deals to form majorities, going back on their lofty pledges of yesteryear not to do so come hell or high water.

The arrogant pledges from political pulpits not to strike deals with ‘rogues’ from the other camp have to be set aside, as the election results have forced the parties to eat humble pie. Politics is, after all, the art of the possible and for the thick-skinned. Winning is the name of the game, at any cost.

The voting system clearly needs another look. What is worse is that the voters remain in the dark as to who on earth they voted for from a political party or independent group. At least in the case of the latter there was a semblance of knowing the candidate, but not so from a party.

Not long ago, the then Opposition (JVP/NPP and SJB) caused an uproar about constitutional but illegitimate mandates. The shoe is on the other foot now. Parties with less than 50 percent of the vote have no qualms about making a claim for control of dozens of contentious councils.

The complicated counting procedure—an arithmetical ordeal—was, arguably, at the root of this quagmire. By trying to please everyone and be fair to all, no doubt with the best of intentions, there were quotas for youth, for women, ‘overhang members’, and a proportional representation (PR) system in one basket. The end result has only produced a dish of mixed vegetables.

Take the Colombo Municipal Council. The ruling JVP/NPP won 33 of the 47 wards, ending up with 48 seats as “elected members’, with zero under the category ‘Members to be Returned’, while the UNP won two ‘Elected’ and ended up with 11 ‘To be Returned’ members. While PR is a fair distribution of representation, especially for losers, the mathematical calculations are mind-boggling.

In the old system, a party that won most wards formed the council. It was as simple as that. Then came PR, and the party that had more seats was given bonus seats to give them a comfortable majority. The current count goes further.

All this has left voters in the dark. After having voted for a nondescript, anonymous candidate, they now have to wait and see what wheels and deals by politicians will produce the ultimate coalition that will run their respective councils.

It is no surprise that this vote for ghost candidates could be very much part of the reason for the all-time low turnout; 1 in 2 voters not voting. With the ruling party and opposition now scrambling to form councils under their control, their mandate and legitimacy according to their own onetime arguments seem questionable.

The spectre of those councils where no party received an outright majority being ungovernable or, at best, perilous seems to loom large under these circumstances.

India-Pakistan conflict and the future of warfare

How close were Sri Lanka and the rest of the world to a nuclear war recently as the two South Asian neighbours, India and Pakistan, went eyeball to eyeball in armed conflict? Was Sri Lanka on ‘High Alert’ for such an eventuality? That it even crossed the minds of those in the National Security Council is doubtful given the Government was struggling to issue even a statement on the events unfolding. Sri Lanka seemed so blissfully unaware of the dangerous buildup in the subcontinent.

The latest round of warring between the two countries began with the dastardly killings of innocent tourists in the idyllic Indian-controlled Kashmir hillside.

Starting with armed clashes across the Line of Control that separates the two countries, India upped the ante by firing missiles into the Nur Khan airbase, the garrison town close to the Pakistani military capital of Rawalpindi, while Pakistan sent 300-400 drones testing Indian air defences.

Then, a defining moment arrived over the Kashmir skies.

A Chinese-made air-to-air missile (P-15) fired by a Pakistan pilot hit an Indian Air Force (IAF) jet, shifting the air superiority balance. The world was witnessing the arrival of cutting-edge air defence technology in warfare, with sophisticated electronics and AI (Artificial Intelligence) in real time redefining military balances the world over.

In the aftermath of the latest round of conflict, a new reality and level of risk unfolded in Sri Lanka’s neighbourhood with wider geostrategic and security implications. The simmering bilateral confrontation went beyond Kashmir, escalated to a nuclear threshold, and drew in extra-regional super powers and middle powers into the unfolding events. It played out in the skies over the Himalayas, not in the oceans of the Indo-Pacific where the theatre of tension has been so far. It ended with a tenuous ceasefire.

While the details are still sketchy, the brief episode was also an eye-opener to the future of warfare and technology. The Chinese P-15 was part pilot, part AI, satellites and sensors executed by machine—a practical demonstration of the next generation of automated warfare.

A new arms race has just begun. Defence budgets of the Western world will now expand to even greater heights. The multitrillion-dollar arms industry will be fed to match the Chinese technology.

On the strategic front, the battle drew attention to the gaps and limitations of existing frameworks on weapons and related strategic doctrines, including the ethical and humanitarian implications of the advent of AI-powered Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWs) as well as the existing nuclear non-proliferation framework—both topics under multilateral consideration at the UN.

Does the outcome propose the distorted logic that the ultimate guarantee of the security of a state is, in fact, the possession of a nuclear deterrent? Does it reinforce the tactical value of AI-driven missiles and automated weapons, LAWs? This is an existential challenge to non-nuclear weapons states, including Sri Lanka.

All this will surely lead to spiralling defence expenditure, including in countries that can little afford it, and greater budget cuts on agreed global objectives, including poverty alleviation and climate financing, and slashing of further spending to the United Nations agencies like the World Health Organisation. Sri Lanka finds itself in a complex land and ocean neighbourhood in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. At a time of evolving, undefined and complex global geopolitical and strategic environments, the country needs astute charting of its external environment.