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The World is facing unprecedented food shortages and a hunger crisis. According to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), more than 260 million people will face starvation and about 18 million people are estimated to die of starvation and illnesses related to food shortages. Most of these deaths would be in Africa and South Asia.

Warning

Arif Husain, chief economist at the United Nations World Food Programme warns that “the coronavirus pandemic and its punitive economic effects are about to set off the next global hunger crisis”.

He points out that “In the last four years, conflicts, climate change and economic instability raised the number of people suffering acute hunger — when the absence of food endangers people’s livelihoods and, in some cases, their lives — from 80 million to 135 million people.”

The current pandemic Ariff says could drive 130 million more people into that state by December and more than a quarter billion people are likely to be acutely hungry in 2020. The UN Security Council considers it a threat to international peace and security.

Starvation

The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that more than 260 million people will face starvation.

This is double the number who faced starvation last year. David Beasley,  the WFP director warns that: “In a worst-case scenario, we could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries.” Tony Blair has described it as worst than the corona virus epidemic.

Death toll

While hunger is widespread and endemic in many developing counties and millions die of hunger related causes each year, this year’s death toll is likely to be unparalleled. The impending global food shortage could threaten the food security of less developed nations, especially poor people around the world.

In a normal year about 9 million people are estimated to die of starvation and illnesses related to food shortages. This number is expected to climb two-fold this year. Most deaths would be in Africa and South Asia.

Causes

The underlying causes for this global food crisis are a reduction in world food production, restrictions on food exports, rising food prices, increased shipping costs and depressed incomes of people. These would reduce the supply, availability and accessibility to food of people in many developing countries.

Food production

Global food production and export surpluses are expected to decrease this year and next owing to reduced food production due to the COVID-19’s disruption of food supply chains and shortages of labour in many countries. In India, farmers have been asked by the Indian Council of Agriculture to postpone cultivation owing to the pandemic. Migrant labour is not returning to the agricultural areas. Many countries face shortages fertiliser and agro chemicals.

Export restrictions

Some countries have imposed restrictions on food exports. Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam have banned export of rice to ensure their own food security. Other countries may follow, if they perceive their food availability is barely adequate for their own consumption or that exports would increase prices in the country.

Transportation

Shortages in global food production could be aggravated by difficulties in shipping from exporting countries to food deficit regions. Difficulties in transportation would affect the availability of food in food deficit countries. Furthermore, high costs in shipping would reduce importing countries facing severe financial difficulties to purchase food.

High prices

Shortages in food production, supply and availability would increase international food prices. Increased food import prices would reduce the import capacity of food importing countries with lower export earnings, reduced remittances from abroad and decreased tourist earnings to purchase food.

Food availability

The international food situation will have serious implications for the food security of many countries, mostly in Africa and South Asia. The food security of poor countries and poor people are threatened. Sri Lanka’s food security too may be weakened due to decreased food supplies, higher costs of transportation, financial difficulties, higher costs of food. Lower incomes due to unemployment and lesser remittances from abroad will create severe hardships for poor people in Sri Lanka as in other developing countries.

Low Incomes

Large scale unemployment owing to work stoppages have eroded incomes of large numbers of people. Oil prices have collapsed, tourism is drying up, and remittances of foreign workers to their families on which many people depend for survival, are expected to decline sharply. The precipitous fall of remittances and earnings from tourism has also weakened the external finances of many countries and reduced their capacity to import food.

Massive task

Averting the imminent global hunger, starvation and deaths is a massive task. It has been rendered more difficult owing to the global focus being on the containment of the pandemic and the resuscitation of national economies. Financial resources are consequently restricted and inadequate to purchase and ship food to the starving regions.

Food aid

The World Food Programme of the United Nations (WPR) is at present air lifting food on a large scale. What is needed is a much larger funding of their efforts. Other charitable organisations like OXFAM have to redouble their efforts.

An international appeal

People around the world have to be sensitised to the impending global disaster so that there is a substantial collection of funds from individuals, financial and business corporates, religious and concerned charities and individuals. Unfortunately the impending calamity has not received adequate attention in a coronavirus preoccupied world. This is in contrast to the world’s attention when the Tsunami struck a number of countries in 2004 and the world responded magnanimously. A similar global response is needed soon.

Summing up

The impending global food shortage could threaten the food security of less developed nations and especially poor people around the world. About 18 million persons are estimated to die of hunger or hunger-related diseases this year owing to the disruption of food production and supply chains due to COVID-19.

Food production is likely to decrease due to shortages of labour, fertiliser and agro chemicals. Difficulties in transportation would affect the availability of food in food deficit countries, The shortages in food production supply and availability would increase international food prices. In this global context, food deficit countries’ food availability would be threatened.

Final word

The world cannot be complacent about food security of a large number of poor people in the world who are facing starvation and death. Can we avert this global hunger crisis and massive death toll?