| Political Column | ||||||
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| Kadir
factor: A lively issue in talks Sridharan, one of the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora's pioneer Eelam lobbyists in Boston, had journeyed to Washington DC seemingly to ask just that question from Kadirgamar after he had spoken at the Brooking Institute in DC. The question neatly coincided with a similar question raised by a journo from LTTE's on-off spokesman Anton Balasingham whether Kadirgamar, would be part of the Sri Lankan peace team. A rather presumptious question one should imagine. How can the LTTE dictate who should comprise the Sri Lanakn peace team. No doubt the LTTE has been saying that the Colombo government should consist of people who can take decisions, not messengers etc., Surely, can the Kilinochchi government pick the Colombo government team as well. That's rich, indeed. " The Sri Lankan government knows our position regarding him (Kadirgamar). I have nothing to comment on the matter", Balasingham dead panned. But Kadirgamar gave an answer. He said the LTTE wanted him in the peace process, but that if he was going to be an impediment, he would stand-down. There has been more than a hint of a shift in his stance with the LTTE in recent times. His hardline, which earned him their wrath and won the hearts of the majority Sri Lankan when he got them branded " terrorists " by world governments, has mellowed, or has it, really? " I did what I did at the time because the LTTE behaved atrociously at that time", he said and then struck a softening chord by referring to his role in recognising the LTTE as the sole representatives of the Tamils at the negotiating table - though he proceeded to complicate that position by talking of a " head table " where the LTTE will be sole reps, and a " long table " where they wont be. Hardly had the ink dried from the national press reporting the Q & A sessions from Kilinochchi and Washington respectively, a Presidential Secretariat release gave a more definitive answer to the question. Kadirgamar was going to be left out of - at least the negotiating process, even if not from the entire peace process. It seems that President Chandrika Kumaratunga had bowed to LTTE pressure (whatever Anton Balasingham says they told her), and ditched her once trusted sole representative of the negotiating process, this time round. The signal came in the form of appointing retired UN Under Secretary-General Jayantha Dhanapala as head of the UNP set-up Peace Secretariat, the office that deals with the LTTE. Dhanapala who earlier offered himself for the job when the UNP set up the Peace Secretariat, was reported to have produced a 5-page document containing terms and conditions to work for former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's Government. He was not accepted then but has now been invited by President Kumaratunga to do the same assignment. Unmistakably, Dhanapala would be up to the task and in no small measure. Yet, Kadirgamar and Dhanapala are not going to hit it off, that’s for sure. The acrimony is personal. And the introduction of Dhanapala cannot be to the liking of Kadirgamar, to put it mildly. Given Dhanapala's own UN connections, and possibly his future UN ambitions, there will soon come a time, sooner than later no doubt, when he begins to start running the Government's foreign policy via the Peace Secretariat and the peace process, trampling on Kadirgamar's polished shoes in the process. And it just cannot be that President Kumaratunga could be unaware of such an eventuality. As a sop however, Kadirgamar is going to be a vice-chairman of the proposed Peace and Reconciliation Council that President Kumaratunga is going to head. Clearly, the question that arises is whether Kadirgamar, notwithstanding his recent twists and turns on the LTTE, on ISGA - the interim governing body the LTTE is demanding - etc., is now an embarrassment to the new Government bending backwards to appease the LTTE - and the international community - despite all the pre-elections gung-ho rhetoric to win the southern votes. Bluntly put, as a hardline Sinhala nationalist who has also been somewhat disillusioned with Kadirgamar's recent shifts, but equally admires him for his earlier work, “He has been spat out like the 'karapincha' (cooking leaves) from the curry being prepared under a new recipe, but the same cook". Why this sudden change of mind on the part of the UPFA, or more precisely President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga? In the past six months her anger towards the LTTE for endangering Sri Lanka's national security interests have been uppermost in her mind. So much so, she took over the defence portfolio and threatened to strike back within a fortnight if the LTTE did not pull back from the Manirasakulam camp in the Trincomalee district. She and her constituent partner in the UPFA, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, were bound together on common ground for many reasons. One of them undoubtedly was their antipathy and disgust towards the LTTE. After being voted to power, she personally asked her Foreign Minister Kadirgamar during his China visit to thank the country's leaders for helping in the war efforts with military equipment. She looked for more weapons from them. She was grateful that China had allowed Sri Lanka to go easy on repayment for military equipment already procured. There were millions of dollars owing to China's state owned supplier, Norinco. Then on the ill planned and hurried visit to India on his return, she endorsed Kadirgamar's move to wrap up the proposed Defence Co-operation Agreement as early as possible. Her latest legal advisor Nigel Hatch and Defence Secretary, Cyril Herath, had sat to knock down a draft and sent it to New Delhi to India's envoy in Colombo, Nirupam Sen. But the visit, alas, turned out to be a diplomatic disaster. The man whom Kadirgamar hugged before TV and still cameras, Foreign Minister, Yashwant Sinha lost his own constituency at the Indian General Elections. Even before that, Sinha, who was on the campaign trail gave a news conference in Chennai. He said Kadirgamar had come to New Delhi and asked India to play a direct role in the peace process. When asked what this role was, he had said he would have to get back to Colombo to respond. The other person whom Kadirgamar met, National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister, Brijesh Mishra, has now lost his job. The probable new Foreign Minister, Kanwar Natwar Singh (of parippu drop fame) will surely remember that his Sri Lankan counterpart is the one who came on the eve of elections to seek the support of his BJP predecessor. What then is the reason for this hundred and eighty degree about turn? The simple answer is, the Economy, stupid. There are no funds to fulfil all the promises given during the April 2 parliamentary general elections. Moreover, there is no money even for state corporations and statutory bodies to pay salaries. This week, the Ceylon Electricity Board was going around sounding out state banks to raise funds. So did the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation which has been refused Treasury allocations. The western aid donors will only fork out if the peace process is on track. This is why a desperate bid was made, though unsuccessfully, to have the peace process started by end of May. This is to make it easy during the Four Nation aid donors meet in Brussels on June 3. In addition, Japan has also conveyed through diplomatic channels that more aid would depend on the Government's commitment to continue with the peace process. In fact, Japanese special envoy Yasushi Akashi who is arriving here will go to the Wanni to speak to the LTTE. He wants to tell them that Japan would invest in industries and other projects in the Wanni as well. Besides, the money aspect, there is also another - President Kumaratunga's own future in Sri lanka's political firmament. She cannot remain President after 2005 or arguably, 2006 at the most. Therefore, she has to amend the constitution. Hence, talks with the LTTE where she could stitch a deal on the ISGA with a view to incorporating them in a new constitution would give her TNA support, or so she thinks. Hence her men who are tasked to do the constitutional amendments like Jayampathi Wickremaratne and M.M. Zuhair are part of the negotiating team. That is besides Ministers Sarath Amunugama and Mangala Samaraweera not to mention Jayantha Dhanapala, with the latter who will surely be dealing with the Norwegians, Japanese, US, India et al. Fortunately for the new UPFA Government, apart from a familiar squeak from the professori, they have the support of the UNF in what they are doing. And what is more, the UNF is embroiled in their own post-election post-mortems and internal power-struggles to bother the UPFA too much with their own problems. "Everybody in the UNF is a Reformist " these days said a senior party wag who has seen victory and defeat many times over. Essentially, two main groups are at the forefront of the Reformist Movements of the UNF. One group is headed by Milinda Moragoda, the unabashed US lover and acclaimed Ranil Wickremesinghe protege. Quick to play " Reformist "as he did in the immediate aftermath of the coup against Wickremesinghe in April 2001, Moragoda has joined hands with Sajith Premadasa, Tissa Attanayake, Keheliya Rambukwella, Navin Dissanayake and Lakshman Seneviratne. The counter group comprise Ravi Karunanayake, Rajitha Senaratne, S.B. Dissanayake and P. Dayaratne. Counter proposals and counter names are being proposed and disposed in the reformist process that is now, inevitably, getting blurred with personal agendas. What is emerging from this blurred picture however is that the UNF machinery will have to convert itself into a voter-based organisational structure whatever proposals come to create different posts for people to be in charge of the Academics, Culture, Religion, Trade & Business sectors etc., There is no substitute to the party going to the rural voter and winning him or her over if the party is to make a return to the seats of civic power once again. As for personalities, what appears to be the case, is that the party leader remains, so does the party chairman, S.B. Dissanayake becomes the National organiser with some powers, and the secretary Senerath Kapukotuwa vacates to head the Kandy district at the forthcoming provincial polls. JVP
looks anew at 'axis of evil' President Kumaratunga is preparing to take over from where Ranil Wickremesinghe stopped or was stopped. In finding a solution to the Sri Lankan ethnic problem Kumaratunga had to first recognize the LTTE as the sole representative of the Tamil people. Secondly she is acceding to the conditions outlined in the Interim Self Government Authority proposal (ISGA) of the LTTE as the basis for discussion. The Freedom Alliance which has been forged as a political unit between the SLFP and the JVP emerged as a powerful political force capable of ending the UNF rule so very prematurely. JVP and its broader national arm the DJV (Desha Hiteshi Jathika Viyaparaya) were the two most passionate believers and advocates of an undivided nation, that rejected devolution as a solution to the ethnic problem. This combination denounced the Tamil Homeland call by espousing allegiance to patriotic politics. President Kumaratunga had adroitly manoeuvred to outsmart the Reds, while leaving them to face mounting criticism over making contradictory policy statements linked to the peace process. With a view to deflect any adverse fallout, if any, from these deft moves, the JVP is determined to observe total silence on matters of policy. Despite adopting such tactical measures the JVP should be keenly aware that this strategy would not help them in the long run to keep the opposition at bay. It has been the practice after every general election conducted in recent times the victor in an attempt to vanquish their political opponent seeks to probe the so-called malpractices of the previous regime by appointing special committees. But if a government cannot get its policies correct and the major stakeholders contradict each other it could lead to a larger implosion of the whole party structure. Already an internal melt down of the administrative structure of the UPFA is in process. Delay in appointments to run the ministries and other bodies could drive a sense of frustration among the ministers. Top Kumaratunga advisors may feel insecure with the return of certain former heavyweights in the CBK officialdom back to service. Mano Tittawela's entry into the Presidential service structure on a previous occasion was on condition that K.Balapatebendi would have to move out of her staff. K. Balapatabendi has now returned. He is also the chairman of the Aviation Authority and is accused by the top Kumaratunga advisors of interfering in decision making in matters over which he has no authority. Reportedly media minister Reginold Cooray is said to be unhappy with certain decisions made by Mano Tittawela and the other presidential advisors. He in the presence of some officials is said to have lamented of being transformed into another Imtiaz Bakeer Markar. He, the reports say, had blasted the senior Presidential advisor over the phone in the middle of a meeting with state media bosses. The reason being the advisor summoning minister Cooray to President’s House. The JVP which in recent times had been able to establish friendly relationships with Prime Minister Rajapakse has seen the climate changing. During the impasse between the JVP and President Kumaratunga over the delay in the swearing-in of the JVP ministers they succeeded in building a link with the PM through Dr Sarath Ranawake. The JVP's main allegation is that some of the PMs actions, especially policy decisions, tend to encroach on subjects which come under their purview. With the President's attempts to kick-start the peace process the rational structure of operational guidance and consensus in this loose alliance has been torn apart. The Alliance leaders are employing comic strategies to escape their own guilty conscience. One classic example is the JVP propaganda secretary's answer over the return of the Norwegians. The JVP called the Norwegians, UNF and the LTTE as an axis of evil. Now Weerawansa's statement in defence is " The UNF government put us in a trap, hence to free ourselves from it the same methodology used to get in has to be used to get out". Ironically the JVP is trapped in a minefield they themselves laid in the last two years. Suddenly patriotic, outspoken JVP enigma Weerawansa is doing the job of a minesweeper to find a safe passage to escape. |
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