The first 90 days of the JVP's parliamentary revolution
By Our Political Editor
A war of wits, and a jumping majority?
In 2004, those are some of the amazing unfolding catchphrases relating to basic governance. A 'jumping majority' does not indicate crossovers though it might come to that. It signifies a government which gets a majority from issue to issue -- meaning that it might lose some of the votes in Parliament but may still tide over the key votes thus being able to run an effective administration.

The following is a paragraph from a political science textbook published in the UK:"Although Britain has only two major political parties at present (Labour and Conservative), there are several others with enough support (Liberal, for instance at around 10%) to have some members in the Commons. It is possible for a party to govern without holding a majority of the seats by themselves, so long as they can attract enough support from other party members to win a majority on key votes. If not, a new general election is held.''

As is seen by that quote, the 'key votes' are the issue here. But, in the Sri Lankan Parliament to convene on the 22nd, there is an added element that is being promised. Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar and a dozen other UPFA frontliners have announced the Parliament will convene as a constituent assembly also from the 22nd of this month. (Thursday.) Like the dominoes, the support or the expected support for this move is collapsing almost by the minute, but its backers are holding on with splendid stubbornness.

The JHU has now indicated that they are also against this move, and to this you can add the babel of voices coming from the UNF the CWC the SLMC and of course from civil society and a considerable swathe of opinion from the legal fraternity.

At a seminar held just before the elections on this issue, Professor Carlo Fonseka argued that a 50 per cent of the popular vote should be sufficient for this move, as this is what J. R. Jayewardene obtained to change the Constitution in 1977. Fonseka attributed the fact that the late JRJ had a two thirds majority, to a "constitutional artefact owing to the first past the post system.''

But this government falls short even of the Professor's yardstick. It does not have 50 per cent of the popular vote. It has no grasp of the grundnorm, no way the vital 'vox populi.' But yet, this government is determined to go ahead with this constituent assembly on the premise that it has a "mandate'' from the people to change the constitution via such an arrangement.

But legal revolution aside, the JVP is making vast strides in its own revolution, a silent revolution in which it seems to have already usurped the power of the traditional Sri Lankan power elite. At the time of writing, it appears the standoff continues on re-allocation of various vitals of certain Ministries which were given to the JVP. The JVP wants Mahaweli restored to the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Film Corporation restored to the Ministry of Culture for example.

The JVP's long term plan for taking over the entire administrative structure of the country -- perhaps at a future election - - is obvious from the fact that the party has asked for Cabinet portfolios that can enlarge its populist support base without getting into the knitty-gritty aspects of structural governance. One political analyst put it rather unkindly however to say "the JVP will make the biggest fudge - - and the bigger the fudge the bigger the noise.'' With agriculture and culture in the basket, the JVP will enlarge its rural and peasant support base - - and perhaps watch from the relaxing grassy knolls of populism while its partner the SLFP gets stuck in the deep mire of peacemaking and international trade. With this support base assured at a later date, the JVP seeks to pounce at the correct time, and the rest will be a sad story for the SLFP.

The SLFP seeks to get wiser to this game plan. This week the President particularly was getting ready to inject the party with a world-view, a solid ideological base to replace a traditional party's longstanding fondness for expedient politics. The game plan is to match the JVP for honesty and clean politics, if not to better the JVP in efficiency and public spiritedness. To this end the President met her parliamentary group yesterday in Kandy.

She has already unveiled a strict Code of Ethics for her parliamentary group and this document was personally approved by her at the weeks-end. The Code of Ethics says for instance that on average every Minister travelled 12 to 15 times abroad in the last two years. In contrast she stipulates that all foreign trips be sanctioned by her in this current administration. All transfers likewise would be sanctioned by her, and there should be no immediate relatives appointed to posts in Ministries of the UPFA Cabinet.

She wants to be seen as the greater paragon of virtue than the JVP, now that the JVP has already beaten her to the race in virtuous and squeaky clean politics. You can say she will go out of the way in this regard. Former UNF Minister Karunasena Kodituwakku for instance, had written to the President's office requesting her permission to participate in a UNESCO governing board meeting.

The President's Secretary being the preppy ex-public servant that he is, said that Minister Koddituwakku is not even a MP, and was about to write a letter for the President's signature politely turning down the request, when the President intervened to say that Kodituwakku should go for the conference. Accordingly the former UNF Minister, now unseated, emplaned and had by the time of this writing already left for the meeting, thanks to the magnanimous sanction of the President.

So, as it turns out, the JVP has a world-view and a plan of action, the President has a worldview and a plan of action (however reactive it maybe to the JVPs more pro-active plan) but does the UNP one of the country's oldest political parties have a plan of action a worldview or a political philosophy in the face of its defeat?

The party has announced a grand restructuring program, and many heads will roll they say. Some heads have already rolled, such as Tyronne Fernando for instance. But, before the re-structuring, the UNP positions itself as the pragmatic party which did not make sweeping ideological claims -- or sweeping promises. So, the UNP has set a ninety day delivery deadline for the JVP and the UPFA's masters of political rhetoric. The game plan is to say to the JVP: "work as well as you can talk."

To this end the UNF shows the impossibilities inherent in the so-called "promissory politics'' of the UPFA. The breakdown is shown as this way: a 75 per cent salary increase of government employees requires 90 billion Rupees. The promised wheat subsidy requires Rs 3000 million year. The promised new fertilizer subsidy will cost Rs. 750 million per year. The promised sugar subsidy will cost 2400 million rupees per year. Most importantly the promise of 60000 jobs in 3 months will mean the creation of 1600 jobs a day at a cost of 6 billion Rupees to the Treasury (that's excluding the promise that all graduates will get a salary of Rs 30000 per month.)

Can the UPFA deliver all of this in 90 days within the constraints of the budget? If it does not happen -- the UNP is sure it won't -- the government is given a life span of 100 to 150 days by the UNP's spanking new opposition. Can the new power elite, notably the JVP, deliver?

JVP says SLFP inconsistent on policy
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
The week started off with a major stand off between the UPFA stakeholders with the JVP boycotting the official swearing in of the new Ministers. The JVP in its strongest political protest action since the alliance was formed hit out at the stripping of certain subjects in the ministries allocated to them and reassigning them to some senior SLFP members also in the Cabinet. The SLFP leadership made this decision at the last moment making the JVP realize that it was extremely difficult to be consistent in policy matters with its new alliance partner.

In this latest crisis it is clearly the SLFP that has to be blamed for having suddenly jumped off track from a previously agreed position. Mutual trust is really essential for a political alliance to function smoothly and to ensure its survival in a harsh political climate as is available in Sri Lanka where any mistake may prove to be costly.

Though President Kumaratunga still seemed shocked by the JVP's boycott she appeared to be more angered by the hostile departure of a dejected Arjuna Ranatunga at reportedly not being offered the ministry of sports. After the swearing in, President Kumaratunga addressed her new ministers. This was no pep talk. She said what a difficult position she was in and even threatened to resign. But Anura Bandaranaike who saw the lighter side of this comment said "when I was small I always heard my mother saying quite a few times that she will resign as Prime Minister but never ever actually did so", President Kumaratunga sternly responded to this remark saying "Anura I am not your mother".

She forthwith appointed a committee to iron out matters with the JVP realizing that she was in a disadvantageous position unless she gets the alliance back on track. Failing to do this could have been critical for the UPFA to proceed to run the government. It was Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse who took the initiative to patch up the two parties. He tried to establish a link between the JVP and the committee through his special envoy Dr. Ajith Ranawaka. But these moves were short lived as Mr. Bandaranaike intervened to suggest that it would be better if the Prime Minister opted out of this process.

Mr. Bandaranaike's comment did discourage the Prime Ministerial initiative. To the surprise of many in the SLFP a member of the committee pursued the effort. It was none other than Douglas Devananda who arranged a few meetings with the JVP delegations to settle the matter. Even Ven Elle Gunawansa Thera of the Patriotic National Front an offshoot national movement of the JVP contributed towards these peace making efforts. They all desired the new Alliance to go ahead with governing. Everyone feared such internal crises may jeopardise their efforts of the last one-year.

The JVP though agreeing to compromise were very clear on their stand. They wanted the subjects of Mahaweli and Livestock back. The JVP message was clear. "We believe in working according to a certain policy, we do not indulge in politics of pleasing individuals. The SLFP always looked at pleasing, for example they had to give away the Prime Ministers post to Mahinda Rajapakse instead of to Lakshman Kadirgamar as planned, now its Maithripala Sirisena."

The JVP position is quite commendable for Sri Lankan politics need some sound policy adherence to progress further. Also the JVP method of scientific distribution of ministries is pragmatic in jumpstarting efficient and effective ministerial operations. But the JVP has now a huge task ahead to develop and deliver the relief packages and welfare oriented solutions to the people as the Sri Lankan public could easily be motivated to vote on promises. Such statements could also contribute to the downfall of many politicians and parties. Laterally in this love hate relationship with the politicians the voter shows little mercy. The downfall of the strong UNF regime within two years is a glaring example of this phenomenon at work.

The SLFP quite desperate to settle the crisis between the two parties going out of control offered an extra deputy ministerial position to the JVP on Thursday at a meeting in Presidents House. The post offered was as deputy to Maithripala Sirisena but the JVP rejected the offer saying that they do not want anything other than what they have agreed to in their power sharing agreement. The Reds also came down a step in the ladder by offering to forego the ministry of Lands as a compromise. After all these manoeuvers the ultimate decision seemed to rest with President Kumaratunga.

The SLFP has now conceived a new line of defence in the aftermath of the general election scenario. Fearing that a possible disintegration of the party was imminent the SLFP stalwarts have sprung up a safety net to arrest further inroads being made into the party.

The vanguard of this new movement comprise Maithripala Sirisena, Susil Premjayantha and Nimal Siripala Silva. Many would be questioning the logic of appointing a large number of cabinet ministers this time when the President had a chance to bring down the number of ministers and set up a model cabinet. But this came as a SLFP effort to empower the whole SLFP unit within the government with executive powers. Now JVP MPs will occupy the whole UPFA backbench.

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