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Opinion poll was largely on target
The Org-Marg-Smart Opinion poll results which were published exclusively in The Sunday Times last week - five days before polling day suggesting a Hung Parliament with no side winning an absolute majority- appears to be the final result from Friday's general election.

Due to the Elections Commissioner suspending the count last evening after announcing results for 13 of the 22 districts, The Sunday Times is unable to compare the final results with that of the Org-Marg-Smart survey. Going by present indications, the UPFA is due to win between 103 and 108 seats. The opinion poll said the UPFA would win 101 seats.

The poll suggested the UNF would win 91 seats. Present indications are that the UNF would obtain 86 seats at the final count. The poll pointed to the Buddhist monks obtaining nine seats which surprised many at the time. The monks contesting as the JHU currently have seven seats confirmed in the bag and could end up with eight seats even if the monks themselves expect double-figures.

Having been unable to conduct a survey in two of the districts under LTTE-control, the poll suggested the TNA would win 13 seats. This appears to be correct though when these two districts are considered they may end up with 22 seats.

The poll expected the SLMC to win eight seats, three of them from Trincomalee, but this does not seem to have materialised. Officials at Org-Marg-Smart yesterday said the strong showing by the Buddhist monks, especially in the Colombo and Gampaha districts had been at the expense of the UNF as well as the UPFA despite earlier expectations that they would mainly cut into the UPFA vote-bank.

They said that the UPFA performed beyond expectation, but their ability to obtain an absolute majority seems to have been clearly frustrated by the JHU showing, something that was reflected in the opinion polls.

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