Defence: Drifting without direction

The prospects of a snap Parliamentary General Election, now becoming certain on April 2, has badly obscured all other critical issues facing the nation.

Strongly reflected in the catalogue of issues going into limbo are the already stalled peace process and the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) that paved the way for it. The CFA will be exactly three years old in the next two weeks or on February 22.

The most salutary effect of these two developments has been the absence of war for nearly three years. Resultantly there was an economic boom and increased foreign investment. Tourist arrivals rose and a starved hospitality industry could not cope.

Just three days ago, when Sri Lanka marked the 56th anniversary of independence, the re-appearance of mechanised columns, Main Battle Tanks, Armoured Personnel Carriers, Multi Barrel Rocket Launchers, vehicle mounted Mortar Locating Radars, among them, raised eye brows in the guerrilla dominated Wanni. Was that display, after long years, and for the first time since the ceasefire, a warning, pondered Tiger guerrilla leaders.

If that was a wrong signal, it certainly was not intended. Though President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga had taken over the defence portfolio, her senior officials did not set out to plan arrangements for the Independence Day. Like in the past two years, it was left in the hands of the United National Front.

It was Minister Karu Jayasuriya who chaired the Committee tasked with making arrangements. Defence Secretary, Cyril Herath, who should have been a party, did not participate. Hence the responsibility fell on the armed forces commanders and their senior staff.

Chief of Defence Staff and Army Commander Lt. Gen. Lionel Balagalle, during a planning discussion, offered to include the mechanised columns. After all, the mechanised units have been idling since the ceasefire. Why not bring them from the one time operational areas, give them a polish and put them on display? The proposal found immediate acceptance.

As the mechanised units rolled, President Kumaratunga, who stood on the dais at Independence Square, was seen on television turning to her right to question Lt. Gen. Balagalle. It later turned out she was raising queries about some of the units, like for example, the identification of the Czech built Multi Barrel Rocket Launchers (MBRL) which wreaked havoc during the war. The ruins of the Chavakachcheri town in the Jaffna peninsula, which still remains and is now a tourist attraction, is testimony to the devastating effect of MBRLs.

Live TV coverage of this did cause some concern among guerrilla leaders and others who viewed it in the north-east. There was suspicion. This was in marked contrast to those in the south. There, if some did not notice the nuance, there were others who asked why the armour together with artillery and other "might" on display could not be used to crush the Tiger guerrillas.

That, they argued, could put a stop to a stronger military machine the guerrillas were building. President Kumaratunga was prompted to take over the defence portfolio on November 4, last year, because of this. Clearly the fact that this "might" failed in the near two decades of separatist war and forced successive governments to talk peace at various stages seemed lost.

But, this development, like many others occurring since President Kumaratunga's takeover of the defence portfolio, seems to underscore an important reality. With no Minister of Defence, no deputy and an inexperienced Defence Secretary, most matters defence and security, if not all, appear to be drifting without direction, as often pointed out in these columns.

This is by no means to fault a one time Police Chief, Cyril Herath, who is now Defence Secretary. His forte throughout his career has been in the field of intelligence although the many state agencies now tasked with this important aspect of security are plunged in chaos and confusion.

The post of Defence Secretary was thrust on 70 year old Mr. Herath. He never sought it. In the many months before the take over of defence, he has worked behind the scenes as defence advisor to the President. He had agreed that too under pressure, to hold office for three months until another suitable person was found. Last week, he was making clear to authorities the time was up for him to call it quits. But a suitable replacement is not yet on hand and he is being forced to continue.

The rigors of office, with little or no help from any professional quarters on matters military, are telling on him. Paradoxical enough, there is little or no occasions when Mr. Herath can put to use the wide knowledge and expertise he has acquired in his Police career. That subject comes under the purview of a different portfolio, the Ministry of Interior. Though this Ministry was also taken over by the President, it functions under a different secretary.

It is in this backdrop that President Kumaratunga admitted in her address to the nation, soon after the military parade on independence day, that "we have so far failed to achieve the vital objective of building our country as one united nation." She added "The cruel war that ravaged our country during the past two decades has now come to a halt. I know fully well that no one wants to resume this war. This shows that all the communities and people with different shades of political opinion consider it that this problem should be resolved without recourse to war. This is a virtual total commitment to peace."

However, President Kumaratunga emphasized that "the absence of war is not peace. We are now faced with the challenge of realizing permanent peace." In asserting this position, she also made clear she was "compelled to take over three ministries…..because the events during that one year period created serious doubts and concerns in the minds of all our people about the security of the nation."

In making these assertions during her address to the nation on Independence Day, President Kumaratunga was re-iterating her dual track policy - a commitment to carry forward the peace process and at the same time focus attention on remedial measures to vital areas that endanger national security, the only reason that prompted her to take over the defence portfolio. At present, President Kumaratunga is in an unenviable position of having to devote most of her attention to political issues.

Besides matters relating to a snap poll, they include the upcoming Provincial Council elections and the ongoing talks between officials for rapprochement over cohabitation with the United National Front. This is amidst intense pressure from two quarters. A formidable, influential section of her People's Alliance have succeeded in their efforts to persuade President Kumaratunga to dissolve Parliament and go for a snap Parliamentary General Election. They assured her of a clear victory and thus a stronger mandate to negotiate peace.

This very move is being disfavoured by neighbouring India, where developments in Sri Lanka have a direct bearing. India's High Commissioner in Sri Lanka, Nirupam Sen who maintains a close rapport with President Kumaratunga, The Sunday Times learns, has explained to her New Delhi's concerns based on fears that a snap general election would lead to further political and economic instability. Instead, India is said to favour a cohesive working arrangement between the UNF and the People's Alliance.

The Sunday Times also learns that similar sentiments on behalf of the Government of India were expressed by Brijesh Mishra, National Security Adviser to the BJP Government. The man widely regarded as a close confidant of Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, is learnt to have made it known to senior International Affairs Advisor to the President of Sri Lanka, former Foreign Minister, Lakshman Kadirgamar. He met Mr. Mishra during a visit to New Delhi two weeks ago to attend a seminar on international security at the invitation of Indian Defence Minister, George Fernandes.

The Indian advice becomes significant in view of a number of reasons. Firstly, President Kumaratunga has pursued efforts originally initiated by the UNF, to formulate a Defence Co-operation Agreement (DCA) with India. Defence Secretary Herath, Army Chief Lt. Gen. Balagalle and Attorney-at-law Nigel Hatch, who was designated as a legal advisor to the President, have already held a round of talks in New Delhi with senior military and defence officials about the agreement.

Upon their return, consequent to a discussion the trio held with President Kumaratunga, it was decided to double up the process with the intention of signing the agreement later this month. In fact, Indian Defence Secretary, Ajay Prasad, was due in Colombo either on his way or during his return from a trip to Singapore to follow up discussions. Mr. Hatch was tasked with the responsibility of formulating a draft taking into consideration the discussions held in New Delhi and the subsequent follow up consultations through diplomatic channels.

It has now become clear that the Defence Co-operation Agreement will not be a reality this month. The matter is being delayed indefinitely in view of the upcoming parliamentary elections in India in April. Even if such an election had not been called, the prospects of signing the DFA this month seemed bleak in view of the draft having to go through a lengthy process in India. It had to be examined by the Ministry of External Affairs, Defence, Home Affairs, reviewed by the Cabinet Sub Committee on Defence and later approved by the Cabinet.

This will be good news to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) who complained that the impending agreement would tilt the military balance the Ceasefire Agreement sought to place at levels that remained in February 22, 2002. The LTTE was angered after the premature release of proposed details to be incorporated in the agreement. This was in the Colombo media.

So much so, intelligence reports to the Government last week said that the LTTE Political Wing leader, S.P. Tamil Selvan, was due to meet an unidentified Indian dignitary for informal talks during his current European tour. This was said to have been arranged by Norwegian facilitators. But official sources, both in New Delhi and Oslo, denied such a meeting was planned or had taken place.

Yet, in this backdrop there was more bad news to the defence establishment early this week. Elaborate plans made for the visit to Colombo by Admiral Madhvendra Singh, Chief of Naval Staff of the Indian Navy had to be cancelled for a third time.

He was to have arrived in Colombo tomorrow on a three-day visit that would have taken him, among other locations, to Naval installations in Trincomalee. The visit was believed to be a fore-runner to the arrival of an Indian Navy flotilla that was to have docked in Colombo, Kankesanthurai and Trincomalee - a show of force that would no doubt have come as a major morale boost to the Sri Lanka Navy. It would have also led to political gains for the People’s Alliance.

Admiral Singh is India's top most military official since he is also the Chief of Defence Staff. A gunnery expert, he has commanded frigates and the Indian Navy's aircraft carrier INS Viraat. In 1987, he took part in "Operation Pawan," the first military offensive launched by the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) against Tiger guerrillas in the Jaffna peninsula. He is due to retire in July this year.

With these developments, the focus on the dual track approach appears to have not made much headway. The peace process remains stalled. President Kumaratunga who praised the LTTE for "the commitment shown" through the continuation of the ceasefire has so far not been successful in resuming a dialogue with them. Informal contacts have been under way since she took over the subject of defence. The very first approach lacked professionalism and led to the creation of more suspicion in the LTTE mind.

As exclusively revealed in The Sunday Times last week, Defence Secretary, Cyril Herath faxed a letter to the head of the LTTE Political Secretariat in Kilinochchi, Prabagaran alias Pulithevan, inviting the LTTE for a direct dialogue to ensure a smoother functioning of the Ceasefire Agreement. It was only weeks before this move, Mr. Herath had told then acting head of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), Haagrup Haukland, that his mission should be in contact with the UNF"s Peace Secretariat in Colombo about the CFA.

If it was bad protocol for Mr. Herath to have addressed that letter to Mr. Pulithevan when it should have gone to the leader of the Political Wing, Mr. Tamilchelvan, that it was sent directly to the LTTE made matters worse. The guerrilla leadership wondered why the Defence Secretary chose to make direct contact with them when it should have been done, like during his predecessor, through the Norwegian facilitators. In fact, when they made available a copy of Mr. Herath's letter to Norwegian facilitators, they are learnt to have told the LTTE that they too were given a copy in Colombo.

According to well informed intelligence sources in Colombo, suspicions arose in the minds of LTTE leaders whether the Defence Ministry in Colombo, now in the hands of President Kumaratunga, was making what they suspected was an insidious attempt to bypass (or altogether eliminate) the Norwegian facilitators. Hence, the LTTE has not replied the letter so far. These sources say that following informal contacts, news has arrived that an LTTE response would be made available soon. But such a response was only a re-iteration of the LTTE's already stated earlier position (of resuming talks once there is clarity in the south) and will contain a reminder of the need to adhere to procedural formalities.

This professional expertise was not only lacking in the political sphere. It appears to be worse in the defence and security establishment where a vacuum has set in since the takeover on November 4. President Kumaratunga's preoccupation with important political issues has led to fewer National Security Council (NSC) meetings or consultations with the top brass on outstanding issues like, for example, the guerrilla build-up around the Trincomalee port. The NSC meeting scheduled for last week at the Janadipathi Mandiraya was called off after all participants had turned up.

The presence of a Defence Minister or a deputy, would have made it possible for such meetings to have been held. That would have facilitated not only assessment of intelligence inputs but also led to important decisions being made. Hence, both short and long term programmes in addition to planning have been badly affected. In the absence of policy guidelines, some sections of the military establishments have embarked on their own policy objectives - matters on which the Government or the Defence Ministry should have set the guidelines.

One such area is the ongoing training of troops to undertake United Nations assignments on peace keeping. It was the UNF Government that agreed to this as a matter of policy. It was based on the assumption that the ongoing ceasefire had led to peace. Hence, the strength of the security forces were to be down sized and efforts made to find placements for military personnel abroad.

It is not clear whether the Ministry of Defence under President Kumaratunga wants to pursue the same policy. The question becomes relevant in view of her assertion, in addresses to the nation in November and last Tuesday that the takeover of defence was due to "serious doubts and concerns in the minds of all our people about the security of the nation."

What were these serious concerns? Undoubtedly, these followed complaints that Tiger guerrillas had been and are continuing to strengthen their military machine. No doubt they are following that well known Maoist dictum - during peace, prepare for war. Is the answer to such developments one of training our own troops for peace keeping abroad? Like the colossal amounts that were spent on the war effort, is it the priority of the Ministry of Defence (now under President Kumaratunga) to continue to spend money to train troops for UN missions?

In raising this question, it is not to grudge an opportunity the Sri Lankan soldier will receive to acquire experience on a foreign battle zone and earn foreign exchange. It is purely to highlight the absence of any conscious policy and how matters which are essential to Sri Lanka's national security and well being are being allowed to drift with no one in control and no cohesive professional input.

A disturbing trend in this vacuum, which President Kumarartunga, unfortunately is not conscious about, is the opportunity for military top brass to devise their policies and programmes. Some of them are now being given effect. Leave alone formal supervision, those who matter do not seem to be even aware such moves that impinge on national and even foreign policy of the nation are continuing.

Already since the takeover of defence, controversy has arisen over punishment meted out to those whom a Presidential Commission of Inquiry said were involved over the Police raid on the Army Safe House at Athurugiriya. Fears of a weakening of the security situation in the Jaffna peninsula is causing concern in sections of the defence establishment. Most procurement urgently needed by the security forces are yet to be met. Recruitment drives, particularly by the Army, have failed to meet required targets.

The Sri Lanka Navy is hit by the shortage of sea going craft. The Sri Lanka Air Force is clamouring for transport aircraft to service the needs of other services as well as to meet its own requirements. Intelligence services are in a disarray and political problems have now set in. It would not be in the national interest to detail them out.

In this scenario, how much more can defence and security matters be allowed to drift? In a democracy like in Sri Lanka, can the politicians allow this situation to deteriorate further and blame it all on the Generals thereafter? Does anyone really care?

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