Political Column

Political Column

All systems go for 2004. Or more confusion?
By Our Political Editor
The UNF juggernaut -- even the staunchest government supporters had to admit -- is in a very reactive mood these days. What does the next year portend for the UNF?

All seems to hinge on what the UNF's enemy number one Chandrika Kumaratunga does. Last week she was doing something, and this naturally had the UNFers prick up their ears.

She created a new Internal Security Ministry, and took most of the functions of the Interior Ministry (which was converted into the Internal Security Ministry) under her purview. The Department of Prisons, the Department of Immigration and Emigration, the Department of Registration of Persons, the Commissioner for the Registration of Persons of Indian Origin and the Department of Census and Statistics which were previously under the Ministry of Interior were all taken under the President's purview in her capacity as Minister of Defence.

Government heavyweights who immediately went into a huddle after this move was made, came to the conclusion that she is taking over most functions under one Ministry as she is ready for compromise by returning at least the other Ministries to the government.

They hope that next year will be the year of compromise. Down the grapevine more or less, we also have the news that the government is willing to compromise as well, if the President is willing to talk Turkey on her part.

But, the point is that nobody is quite sure what the President is getting herself upto. For instance, when she said last week that there is an invitation from her for kiribath at the commencement of the new Cabinet sessions for the New Year, the UNFers fought shy of the invitation to put it mildly. Some said ''taking over Ministries on the one hand and the kiribath on the other -- hell of a howdo you do, no?''

But all this is a symptom of the reactive uncertainty of the UNF these days. The government does not seem to know what exactly Chandrika Kumaratunga is getting herself upto, and is therefore rather curtailed in its strategy because all seems to rest on how she will determine the agenda. This despite the fact that Professor G. L. Peiris has said that the UNF will map out a new strategy if things do not work out by the end of this year.

Though last week was supposed to be a holiday week, it refused to yield holiday tidings. What happened may or may not be a sign of things to come. The funeral of Ven Soma Thera seemed to open up a new can of worms in the form of renewed unrest.

Though at week's end everything seemed to have settled, the fact is that the Prime Minister thought things are serious enough to be mentioned in Cabinet. He said that if the JVP is upto some of the disturbing strategies that were seen along with Ven Soma Thera's funeral, then the JVP has it coming… There is a limit to tolerance, he said.

Apparently, the government surmises that the fact that there have been ''orders'' that shopkeepers close shop on the day of Ven. Soma Thera's funeral, is an indication that it was the hand of the JVP which was behind at least some of the spoiler tactics during the Ven. Thera's funeral. It's the JVP which at least had the best practice in these methods, having practised shop closing tactics which was during the 1989 putsch. The government was aware of the acute embarrassment caused during the period of the funeral, with international wire services having to report that ''there is religious tension in the country'' or words to that effect.

This, in the opinion of most at Cabinet could have been nothing but orchestrated, to create turmoil and gain narrow political advantage out of a situation of chaos.
If there were any subversive tactics, they did not work, considering that things were back to normal - - and the populace had by and large accepted that there is no foul play in the death of the popular monk (in the face of a considered post mortem report by an expert panel of forensic men.)

But it is not lost on the powers that be that somebody out there seemed to have wanted to create another front in the national saga of confrontation and schism. The Buddha Sasana Ministry and all others involved were walking a thin line considering that there were several sensitivities involved, what with Christmas around the corner. The fact that the funeral was held just cheek by jowl with Christmas almost -- on the 24th - -was not originally planned, but had to be acceded to by the government in view of the burgeoning public sentiment with regard to the death of the Ven. Thera.
Generally, there is reason for the government to be concerned about any situation of potential unrest.

For one, the next year is going to be an election year. There is going to be one Provincial Council election at least in February - - with elections for others to follow later. This is considered by both sides to be a litmus test that will have a bearing not just on provincial administrations but on who really rules the country as well. There are a host of other issues whose resolution depends almost entirely on who really calls the shots next year: the Premier or the President?

The peace process and its ramifications are paramount among these issues -- and among the issues involving peace for instance is the question ''whither Norway?'' for example. It appears the President's side is increasingly being disenchanted with Norway, particularly because Norway cut and ran, just because the President took over the Ministries of Defence and two others. This thumbing of nose at the President is to say the least cause for disenchantment with the Norwegians, and whether the peace process - - - if it is going to have greater input from the President in the future -- will include Norway, is something that seems utterly in the balance.

In this way there are so many intangibles for next year. It is simply not known how exactly things will pan out and anything is possible from a general election to a loose national government arrangement between the UNF and the People's Alliance even though the latter is most unlikely.

Compromise on the current issues is possible -- probable even -- but not certain. But the cohabitation crisis and the upheaval after the takeover of the Ministry of Defence and others by the President cannot go on indefinitely, and it is likely that by end January at least with Provincial Council elections scheduled for February, the country will know the contours of the future power structure -- in other words, who will govern, and to what end.

A funeral that raises many questions
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
Code of ethics for MPs was one of the most ambitious projects of the UNP at a time when party discipline has dropped down the hill. The Green lords were hitting away at Police officers, storming police stations, maybe inspired by Clint Eastwood's Western featuring the bad boys of the good old days. But the Code of Ethics seems to have not worked as Ananda Lakshman Wijemanne effectively targeted an important sensory organ of the Bulathsinghala Divisional Secretary.

From Prime Minister Wickremesinghe at the helm of the UNF to its organizers at grassroots levels the current political developments triggered by the take over of three important ministries by President Kumaratunga has shaken the superstructure of the party. The green vessel may not sink but the sheer torque of the President's action may alter the ship's course and slow her down considerably.

The country seems to be gearing up for another election, which type is the million dollar question at the moment. Both main parties have begun drawing their election strategies. Still the concentration is on fighting out the Provincial Councils election. The UNF has an interesting contender as the Chief Ministerial candidate from the Southern Province. Sajith Premadasa, the man with a mission, who conquered a mainly blue stronghold wants it all this time. His nomination will be fully backed by Malik Samarawickrema who himself is a potential national list entry in the event of a general election.

President Kumaratunga is yet to decide between the two types of election which she will call first. But she has begun a master plan to clear the road for the most critical decisive general election of her political life. But she had drafted a secret action plan for three selected Provinces. The plan has been sent to special committees she herself has hand picked. The teams are identified as operational committees for Provincial Councils.

Anura Priyadarshana Yapa has already set his eye as the chief ministerial candidate for Wayamba Province while Southern Province chief minister has been overlooked for a new name in Piyasena Gamage as PA nominee. Provincial councils' elections will be a hotly contested one this season as both parties have strengthened their respective nomination ranks with party heavy weights. They include Parliamentarians, ministers and elite members of both parties.

While preparations were on for Provincial councils election a different strategy for the second combat theatre were taking place discretely. The alliance talks were taking place throughout the parliamentary sessions of the budget readings. The SLFP and JVP tried to keep the meetings as secretive as possible fearing whistleblowers who may damage the process. The negotiating team consisted of four members, two from the SLFP and two from the JVP.

The meetings within the Parliamentary complex was held in two locations. The first was at the office of opposition whip Mangala Samaraweera's office and the second at the office of the President in Parliament. The two groups met last Wednesday to finalise a date for signing of the MOU. But Wednesday was significant as PA general secretary D.M. Jayaratne took part in the talks signalling the slow but important integration of the PA to the whole process. The JVP went on demanding a date to be fixed to sign the MOU and secondly requested the SLFP to draw a joint action plan to be implemented after signing the deal.

The astrological consultants of the SLFP wanted the marriage to be postponed till mid- January. They have now come with two auspicious dates, one in the second week of January and the other in the third. The JVP which comes up with fresh demands all the time they meet up with the blue camp has requested disolution of Parliament within three months into the formation of the alliance.

The week's political sketch turned ugly following the death of Ven. Soma Thera. The unfolding events may lead to a resurgence of fundamentalism, a matter which was even not considered when calculating the political formula of the Sri Lankan state.

The resurgence of religious fundamentalism is a totally unexpected phenomenon in the Sri Lankan political equation especially within the current context. The prevailing political instability in the South may have accelerated the infestation of the system of this hard core elements who can thrive in the absence of a stable regime. For the past few years the policy makers were concerned in draping a security curtain always separating the North and North East of Sri Lanka while keeping a strict vigil over the developments in that area.

But the concept of religious disintegration in the current context was not an anticipated nor a thought about threat. But when Ven. Ellawala Medhananda Thera used the live telecast of Ven Soma Thera's funeral proceedings to declare a "holy war the monk instead used the term "religious war". The predominantly Buddhist state when it came to religion was seen as an accommodative entity where holy jihad is taboo but the recent developments in the more vociferous Buddhist lobby has turned alarmingly hostile and beckoning violence.

Also the state structure became alarmingly weak during the past two years as the coherence of the regime was being tested and contested. The ensuing events were in the nature of a constitutional stand-off rather than a constitutional crisis in the state.

As the safety net of state in the aspect of uninterrupted governance began losing its hold creating a space for brood in the light of fundamentalists and discreet agenda by driven so-called nationalists and patriots to lay waste in this vacuum thus creating an implosion of the political system in Sri Lanka.

But alarmingly the new discourse adopted by this movement seems to have forgotten that this country had been ravaged for nearly two decades by war.The LTTE was one of the most deadliest terror groups operating at that time but now a no war no peace stalemate has set in. Yet the solution to the problem is far from achieved.

But now the Southern community looks like becoming enemies among themselves. The Eelamists must be enjoying this while holding their bellies and laughing all the way into the New Year.

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