If the court holds that the amendment in full could be passed with a two thirds majority in Parliament, it would be a major boon to the UNF government, which is threatening to dissolve parliament if the ruling is to the contrary.

If the court holds that certain provisions of the Bill (the 19th Amendment) need to be approved by the people at a referendum, the government might instead of presenting the bill to the people go for a snap election though the economy is not in a position to absorb the cost of another general election. Even politicians who have faced two general elections in as many years are not in favour of a snap election.

One of the arguments the petitioners put forward was that provisions that allow the conscience vote and give indemnity to those who vote against the party whip would virtually make Article 99 (13) inoperative. Although the bill claims that the conscience vote provision is meant only for the 19th Amendment, the petitioners argued that it would set a precedent and negate the effect of Article 99 (13), thus virtually suspending the Constitution.

Article 99 (13) of the Constitution states thus:

"(a) Where a Member of Parliament ceases, by resignation, expulsion or otherwise, to be a member of a recognized political party or independent group on whose nomination paper (hereinafter referred to as the 'relevant nomination paper') his name appeared at the time of his becoming such Member of Parliament, his seat shall become vacant upon the expiration of a period of one month from the date of his ceasing to be such member:

"Provided that in the case of the expulsion of a Member of Parliament his seat shall not become vacant if prior to the expiration of the said period of one month he applies to the Supreme Court by petition in writing and the Supreme Court upon such application determines that such expulsion was invalid. Such petition will be inquired into by three Judges of the Supreme Court who shall make their determination within two months of the filing of such petition. Where the Supreme Court determines that the expulsion was valid the vacancy shall occur from the date of such determination.

"(b) Where the seat of a Member of Parliament becomes vacant as provided in Article 68 (other than paragraph (g) of that Article) or by virtue of the preceding provisions of this paragraph, the person whose name appears first in order of priority in the relevant nomination paper (excluding the names of any person who have previously been declared elected) shall be declared elected to fill such vacancy."

The petitioners argued that there is a check and balance system between the powers of Parliament and Presidential powers. Tinkering with the power of the President may tend to erode the sovereignty of the people thereby creating an imbalance and any amendment to the power exercised by the President may need a two thirds majority in Parliament which has to be approved by the people at a referendum.

Though the preamble of the bill says that the government needs stability to proceed with the peace process, some are of the view that the Constitution cannot be changed without observing the proper procedures.

The PA, one of the petitioners, is optimistic that the ruling of the Supreme Court would be in its favour in the light of these arguments. But a ruling in favour of the petitioners may not be a sign of further glad tidings to come for the PA. According to observers, if a snap general election is held today, the UNF may possibly win more seats than what it holds now. With the government machinery on its side, and possibly a measure of manipulation, and the relative success in the peace arena, the UNF could improve its representation. However public opinion is volatile and demands quick results which throws the numbers game into disarray. The negative aspect of the election exercise will be that it would cause delays in the peace process.

As for the PA, elections at this time would be counterproductive, especially in view of the President's own reckless pronouncements recently. It was only last week that some senior PA parliamentarians sounded out to her their concern about the party's chances if they faced another election. Nor can the PA dismiss lightly the possibility of the JVP eating further into PA votes.

In the circumstances, observers say a compromise solution could augur well for both the UNF and the PA.

In the meantime, the crisis in the SLMC is also posing a problem for the government.
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe last Monday held two separate meetings with SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem and three NUA MPs.

At the meeting with Mr. Hakeem, the Prime Minister gave a fresh undertaking to expedite the Urban Development Authority work on the reconstruction of the Valachchenai town which was heavily damaged during recent riots.

The Premier is also reported to have said that he would take measures to speed up the process of providing compensation for people affected by the riots.

A few hours after Mr.. Hakeem's meeting, the Prime Minister met SLMC breakaway group MPs - Ferial Ashraff, M.L.A.M. Hisbullah and Segu Issadeen.

Although the discussion went on on a cordial note, it is learnt that Mr.. Wickremesinghe advised the three MPs of the adverse repercussions their anti-peace moves could have on any solution to the crisis in the east.

Mr. Wickremesinghe pressed home the point that since they had pledged to put their weight behind the SLMC leadership in the peace process they should stick to this stand and not resort to any covert manoeuvring to weaken his clout in the east.

Divisions and constant bickering among Muslim politicians, the premier said, would only lead to further divisions in the Muslim community.

The three Muslim MPs briefed the Prime Minister on the factors that have contributed to their reservations about the peace process.

Ms. Ashraff queried as to whether there had been any change in the earlier undertaking given to Muslims that there would be a separate delegation representing the community at peace talks.

Mr.. Wickremesinghe reportedly assured her that there would not be any change in this arrangement. However, he said it was too early to discuss the issue of a Muslim Council when Ms. Ashraff asked whether the Premier could give her a guarantee that a Muslim dominated administrative council would be set up if the Tamils represented by the LTTE were given an interim administration in the North and East.

The three MPs also explained the group's stand on the 19th Amendment to the Constitution.

An interesting point about these three SLMC breakaway MPs is that at one point or the other all three of them had aspired and contended to be the leader of the SLMC. All three failed in their efforts.

Mr. Issadeen, the founder chairman of the SLMC formed in 1981, was always known for his love-hate relationship with founder national leader M.H.M. Ashraff.

The two hardly reached a consensus on crucial party matters and according to party insiders, it was evident from the beginning that Mr. Issadeen was trying to impose his position as the party theoretician, while taking a strong radical political line.

There had been several instances where the duo had openly clashed.

One such incident took place at a function held at the Addalachchenai Teacher Training College in Batticaloa during President Premadasa's time.

At the function attended by the late President, Mr. Ashraff, a Premadasa admirer, read out a verse praising his efforts to uplift the living standards of the poor.

Soon after the function but before the guests left the scene, Mr. Issadeen had reportedly shouted at Mr. Ashraff, hitting out at him for what he did.

Mr. Issadeen was also unhappy about the fact that he failed to enter Parliament at the 1989 general elections.

During his tenure as the party chairman, there had been long disputes over his attempts to get Mr. Ashraff to pay special attention to his electorate - Akkaraipattu.

But Mr. Ashraff reportedly told him that as a leader he had to look after the interest of the Muslims of the entire Eastern Province. The bickering finally led to a situation where Mr. Issadeen openly challenged the leadership of Mr. Ashraff who eventually expelled him from the party.

An angry Mr. Issadeen then formed a party called "Muslim Kachchi" and vowed to erase the SLMC from the political map of the Eastern Province, but his party soon ended up as a nonentity. It was the UNP which accommodated him as a national list MP after Mr. Ashraff extended his support to the PA at the 1994 general elections.

Many analysts saw this move as a UNP attempt to weaken or challenge Mr. Ashraff's leadership.

Mr. Issadeen lived up to expectations and made it a point to launch verbal onslaughts on Mr. Ashraff in a manner which raised many an eyebrow.

In one instance, it is learnt that mincing his words in Parliament he indirectly alleged that Mr. Ashraff was guilty of an indiscretion of the heart.

However, in less than a year's time after Mr. Ashraff's untimely death, his widow Ferial appointed Mr. Issadeen to the post of General Secretary of the National Unity Alliance.
Besides this, she also gave the sole national list slot her group got at the 2001 December General Election, to Mr. Issadeen.

After the untimely demise of Mr. Ashraff in a helicopter crash in 2000, a leadership row erupted in the party with Ms. Ashraff, Mr. Hisbullah and Mr. Hakeem in the fray.

Mr. Hisbullah, a deputy minister in the 1994-2000 PA regime, also had problems with Mr. Ashraff. On one occasion, Mr. Ashraff launched a party inquiry after it was alleged that Mr. Hisbullah had used his position to grant liquor licences to his friends. Dealing with liquor was a breach of the SLMC policy and was also a blatant violation of the Islamic law.

Two days before his death, Mr. Ashraff had demanded an explanation from Mr. Hisbullah, threatening to expel him from both the SLMC and the NUA. With the death of Mr. Ashraff, the show cause letter also died.

Five days after Mr. Ashraff's death on September 16, President Chandrika Kumaratunga stepped in to solve the simmering leadership crisis by giving the Ministry of Port and Rehabilitation held by the late Mr. Ashraff to Mr. Hakeem and a bullet-proof vehicle to Mr. Hisbullah.

At the 2000 general elections, Mr. Hisbullah failed to secure a seat from Batticaloa. President Kumaratunga, however, later appointed him as chairman of the Water Board.

Ms. Ashraff, during this period, was observing "Idda" (the Islamic mourning period for a widow), but she made her presence known by staking a claim for the party leadership and maintaining regular contacts with President Kumaratunga.

However, both Ms. Ashraff and Mr. Hisbullah were pushed to virtual political oblivion temporarily when both failed to secure places even in the SLMC politburo after Mr. Hakeem was made the leader of the party in January 2001.

Following the crossover of Mr. Hakeem and six other SLMC MPs in June, Mr. Hisbullah who was not a politburo member, attempted a political coup by getting him elected leader of the SLMC at a rebel meeting on August 4, 2001.

Political analysts were of the view that this move had the blessings of President Kumaratunga whose party by then had lost the parliamentary majority following the SLMC defection.

State media gave wide publicity to this self-appointment and also to a subsequent reconciliatory meeting between Mr. Hisbullah and Ms. Ashraff.

However, the Hisbullah move ended up as a damp squib.

In the meantime the PA leadership continued to make overtures to Mr. Hakeem and his team in order to restore their parliamentary majority.

When this failed, President Kumaratunga sent Ms. Ashraff who had by then been made a minister, to the east on a dual mission - to strengthen Ms. Ashraff's political standing in the east and to muster support for the PA-JVP memorandum of understanding.

However, Ms. Ashraff was in for a rude shock there when in three places - Oluvil, Saindamaradu and her late husband's stronghold Sammanthurai - enraged SLMC supporters stormed the stages and attacked her loyalists.

At the 2001 December elections, both Ms. Ashraff and Mr. Hisbullah were returned to Parliament having secured seats from Digamadulla and Batticaloa districts and Mr. Issadeen was appointed a national list MP.

Since then the three SLMC breakaway MPs were seen going in three different directions.

Ms. Ashraff was seen campaigning strongly against the UNF government and its peace initiative and became a regular participant at JVP rallies.

Mr. Issadeen who played a vociferous role in the 10th Parliament became unbelievably quiet in the 12th Parliament and was hardly in the limelight.

Mr. Hisbullah concentrated on Eastern politics and tactfully avoided criticising Mr. Hakeem in Parliament and instead continued to invite him to sit in the opposition along with the eleven SLMC MPs.

The threesome, Ms. Ashraff, Hisbullah and Issadeen, have expressed their willingness to extend conditional support to the SLMC.

The SLMC with its 12 seats and having become the king maker for the third consecutive time, has firmly consolidated its position in the Sri Lankan politics today.
The post of SLMC leadership no doubt tantalizes many though the post itself is crisis-ridden. At the moment, Mr. Hakeem is confronted with several challenges regarding his clout in the East.

Nine of his MPs have not been attending Parliament since Tuesday, in support of nine demands they put forward to the government. The breakaway SLMC trio, in the meantime, could make use of this opportunity to settle their score with Mr. Hakeem, political analysts say.

Mr. Hakeem is no more in an enviable position and the question remains whether he will be able to weather this storm as he had done on similar occasions in the past.

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