Now we have the news that Srimani Athulathmudali has been negotiating with the UNP to be the next Chief Minister of the Western province. ( As they say, there is no confirmation on this, but...)
Chandrika Kumaranatunge was Vijaya's sidekick, but now, none would deny that the sidekick has become a force. Srimani was Lalith Athulathmudli's sidekick (wife et al, with all respect. ) Has the sidekick now become a force? Judging by the results of the recent elections ( local government ) and the performance of the Srimani backed independents, one would be compelled to conclude that the sidekick never really became a force. There will be conscientious objectors like the youthful Mr. Ravi Karunanayake, whom I can already see getting his blood up at this statement.
But in politics, the best is to have no illusions. Lalith Athulathmudali, with all his charisma, did not establish the national stature of SWRD Bandaranaike for instance. Therefore, it will be unfair to expect a party established largely on the vision of Lalith to be a force of the stature of the SLFP for example.
Question is, whether Ms Athulathmudali knows this. She has undoubtedly given a cameo performance, cultivated an imperious image, and treated the President with a great deal of irreverence. She seems to have presupposed that nothing can go wrong as long as the late Athulathmudali looks down at things from heaven and ensures that all is well. That has made people want to ask whether she knows the ball- game though she plays hardball with some panache. Objectively speaking, she has walked a tightrope — and has had scant respect for concepts such as collective cabinet responsibility, and such. Lalith too was sacked from the UNP for violating concepts of cabinet responsibility, but that was in a different time when the political forces were not as predictable as today's.
Srimani Athulathmudali, as a person, has graduated from UN employee to Ministerial stature, but has been hesitating to go beyond those parameters. Sirimavo Bandaranaike, for instance, had no previous experience in anything (apart from raising the present President and her siblings), when she was thrust into political prominence. She was fortunate enough to be catapulted to the top job.
In Sri Lanka, just about anybody who is catapulted to the top job, goes from being non-entity to being a force. Look At D B Wijetune for instance. When he was in power, there were perfectly sane men falling at his feet. Some heralded him as the savior of this land, creepers and all. He managed to trash such seasoned operators such as Mr. Cooray for instance, and maintain his political dominance at least upto the point of the elections.
But , in the case of Mrs. Athulthmudali, she only became a Minister and not the President, because that particular post was reserved for another widow. This widow was the daughter of a more powerful widow . Therefore, the current President was ( sort of ) widow times two . In Sri Lankan politics, being widow times two of departed politicians, means you have got it made.
But, Mrs. Athulathmudali was, despite her handicap, bestowed with another prize. She became a Minister in a government that hung by a thread.
That gave her the leeway to be irreverent . The President scoffed at her, and would have gnashed her teeth at home remembering some of her antics. The reality of the electoral numbers was such that she couldn't do much else.
But there is such a thing as the long-term, and when the long term political survival of Ms Athulathmudali is concerned, it is worthwhile pondering what her survival chances are, despite her image of the girl that gives a good fight.
She swears by Lalith , and swears that as long as Lalith's image lives, that she will live in politics. ( Not in so many words, but in effect, that's what she says. )
But there is something to be said about her image in politics. She has played the role of the irreverent heroine, the conscience of the cabinet, the repeller of the evil and dark forces all rolled in one. To be sure, if she did that in any other government, she would have been summarily kicked out, I mean asked to depart. ( A lot of people who know about collective responsibility would say her stance is in bad spirit.)
But in a government hanging by a thread, she enjoys the luxury of being in the " inside passing in.'' (If that language doesn't sound very parliamentary, I think it was used by an ex- US President who said he'd "rather have his opponents on the inside pissing out, than on the outside pissing in".)
In making that assessment, we are here talking domestic realpolitik. Its all in the numbers. If the numbers were different - if the government was'nt hanging by a thread - it remains a very plain fact that Ms Athulathmudali wouldn't be able to be in the government and thrash it.
Is she aware of this fact? Or is she is aware of this fact, and couldn't care less? If she couldn't care less, probably this is why she should care more about it:
It is unlikely that all future Sri Lankan governments, whether PA governments or UNP governments, would hang by a thread. So, whichever government that Ms Athulathmudali gets herself into, she will have to contend with the fact that there can be a situation in which nobody is bothered whether she votes with the government or not.
In such a situation she will either be very silent, or very quickly in the opposition benches. There is nothing wrong in being in the opposition benches. But from there to political oblivion is a short route... for a "third force."
Whenever Ms Athulathmudali plays the righteous one in the cabinet,
whenever she gives them hell, this is why I think she is more a political aberration than a political heroine. Obviously Ravi Karunanayake or Kesaralal are not going to like that, but if anybody is going to come a political cropper one day, I think they should have fair warning of that fact. I mean, it's nothing but right.
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