For thirty years after Independence, Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi dominated the Indian political scene and the Congress seemed monolithic and unbeatable. Then followed the Emergency of 1977 and the two-year rule of the Janata government. Back in power in 1980, Indira Gandhi consolidated her power and ruled imperiously until her assassination in 1984. In the ensuing general election Rajiv won the largest number of seats that the Congress had ever got and governed until 1989.
At that stage V.P. Singh, of princely lineage, who had resigned from the Congress in 1989, set in motion the processes that propelled the poor and the deprived into political prominence. There is a difference between 1989 and 1996. In 1989, the various disadvantaged groups in V.P. Singh's National Front government had fought the parliamentary elections together. In 1996, the regional parties and the depressed class groups in the United Front contested separately and came together after the elections to keep the BJP out of power.
The United Front government is thus both an accident and a contrived experiment in social engineering. It would not have happened if the BJP had got a majority of seats on its own and had formed a stable government. It need not have been formed to govern if the Congress had not decided to support it. The 13-party coalition government of Deve Gowda is different to any previous government in independent India.
Deva Gowda's original 21-member cabinet has already been expanded twice and now includes 39 Ministers and Deputy Ministers. For the first time in the history of independent India, the Communist party of India (CPI) has joined the government. The larger Communist Party of India (Marxist) - CPI (M) - is supporting it from outside. Representatives of regional parties are present in unusual numbers. The cabinet is composed of persons of the middle level and lower castes. The backward and depressed castes have invaded the portals of government as never before. Again, it is also the least experienced government in the past fifty years.
The Programme
The Common Minimum Programme (CMP) of the United Front government, published within three days of taking office, is a model as manifestos go. It manifests the new phase that Indian democracy is entering. Its preamble states that "it is not the replacement of one set of rulers by another. It will mark the beginning of an alternative mode of governance based on federalism, decentralization, accountability, equality and social justice, economic and political reforms, respect for human freedoms and openness and transparency, which will ensure the dignity of both the nation and individual citizens." Whether this is mere impressive rhetoric or the expression of convictions which the government will succeed in implementing, remains to be seen.
The CMP holds out the promise of a government that is "representative, responsible and responsive," Social justice is its main theme. It promises several path-breaking reforms for example, one-third of the elected members of all legislative bodies are to be women, special treatment is to be meted out to the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, free and compulsory primary education will be made a fundamental right, hopefully eliminating child labour and making the people fully literate within ten years; poverty is to be eliminated by the year 2005 A.D. and every unemployed person guaranteed 100 days of employment each year, agriculture is to be modernized with investments being provided for infrastructure in rural areas; rural credit is to be provided and the rural credit system restructured to double the flow of credit to agriculture and to agro-industries within five years; the industrial sector is to achieve 12 percent annual growth with a massive infusion of capital and modern technology.
The CMP stresses the continuing importance of the private sector and promises to avoid "mindless liberalization". The economy will be made to grow at 7 percent per annum. For this fiscal discipline will be essential. Government will cut expenditure annually by $1 billion to reduce the fiscal deficit from 5.9 percent to less than 4 percent of GDP within five years.
Policy conflicts
Despite the eloquence of the manifesto, conflicts are already emerging among the divergent political groups. The communists have protested at finance Minister P. Chidambaram's austerity package to close the budget deficit. Austerity and financial prudence, Chidambaram says, are necessary to eliminate inessential and unproductive expenditure. Communists and labour leaders want the finance minister to be cautious about privatization. The CPI and the CPI (M) threaten to resist measures which would undermine job security or salaries. A 25 percent increase in the price of petrol and a 30 percent increase in the price of liquefied petroleum gas have provoked widespread demonstrations and strikes. The government has backtracked somewhat by backtracking on austerity measures and by reducing the price increase of gas to 15 percent.
Even members of the Janata Dal have begun to question the government's actions. Member of parliament and green activist, Maneka Gandhi, has objected to the decision to allow the US based Cognetrix Corp to set up a power plant in Karnataka, arguing that it will displace a number of the rural poor and damage the environment. She complains that in the United Front government "nothing has been decided by consensus, nor is there any indication of that happening." Maneka has called for a probe by the Criminal Bereau of Investigation into corruption by central government ministers.
Policy conflicts have surfaced within the United Front government among its widely disparate political elements. Once again the spectre of 1980-90 looms ahead. In 1989, the Hindu revivalist BJP supported V.P. Singh's National Front government for eleven months before withdrawing its support over the stopping of L.K. Advani's rath yatra (chariot procession) before it reached Ayodha. The question that is been asked is whether Deve Gowda, an unknown politician of limited national experience, would have the diplomatic skills and the political finesse to cope with the complex situations that will arise. The United Front is learning that articulating a vision is easier than operating a government.
Personality clashes
There is no Devi Lal inside the cabinet likely to cause problems to Prime Minister Gowda that V.P. Singh had to face in 1989. Yet, the expulsion of former Chief Minister of Karnataka, Ramakrishna Hedge, Gowda's arch-rival, together with 28 Hedge supporters from the ranks of the Janata Dal does not bode well. One is reminded of Chandra Shekhar, who felt cheated at the manner in which V.P. Singh was appointed leader of the Janata Dal in 1989. Chandra Shekhar sulked in the shadows nursing a grievance, biding his time to strike at the government to achieve his own personal ambitions. Ramakrishna Hegde, peeved at the elevation of Gowda to a position that he himself had aspired to, has formed a new forum, the Rashtriya Navnirman Vedike, which George Fernandes' Samata Party has promised to support. Could this lead to the stirring of personal animosities that will erode the stability of the new government?.
There are other signs of revolt in the ranks of the United Front. A new Deputy Minister, Raghubans Prasad Singh, resentful over his junior rank, has said he would not travel from his home state of Bihar to assume office in New Delhi. Another junior minister. R.L. Jalappa locked himself in his room and threatened to resign because he was not given cabinet rank. A member of parliament from the troubled state of Jammu and Kashmir has threatened to resign and float a new party unless he was given a place in the cabinet. If these rumblings of discontent continue Gowda will have little time to devote to the pressing affairs of state.
Foreign Policy
External Affairs Minister I.K. Gujral, with twelve years service as A Union Minister in the past, is the most experienced in governance in the Deve Gowda cabinet. In an interview for India Today, he expressed a willingness "to have a dialogue on any question that Pakistan wants" However, he later qualified this: "our unity and integrity are not negotiable". Prime Minister Gowda was more explicit and has ruled out any talks with Pakistan on Kashmir, which he says "is an integral part of India". There is little hope of any immediate improvement in Indo Pakistan relations.
The thrust of India's foreign policy, according to Gujral, will be on regional co-operation. He says "I am a strong believer in regional co-operation. I believe that the concept of region must expand. I feel that the SAARC must have Burma, Afghanistan and the induction of the Central Asian countries. Only then will you have a vast market and resources available to build a huge economy in this region". Most heartening was the statement that, "the central shift from my predecessors will be that I am not an advocate of quid pro quo. I believe that larger nations must have larger hearts also".
After a little more than a month in office and despite the enunciation of a clear and visionary programme of work, Deve Gowda himself must wonder whether his government will last even as long as the Congress (I) is willing to give it time.
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