Sunday Times 2
Clean suit, empty pocket
Astrologers would surely have seen significance in the coincidence of three political events of the Pohottuwa party on Tuesday: The first anniversary of the executive presidency of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, birthday of his brother and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and the presentation of the Government’s 2021 budget, which is expected to transform all those grandiose visions of ‘Prosperity and Splendour’ in the election mandate into tangible benefits.
But we saw no such predictions being made on TV or in the newspapers. Maybe the soothsayers are a bit vary these days having put their foot in their mouth once too often.
Political anniversaries–even birthdays of politicians–take a predictable form: recollections of the glories achieved in the past and resolutions to sally forth into the future with moral and altruistic intentions. Budgets are a different ball game. It is not all plain sailing for even though the opposition may be miniscule, quite a lot of rude things are said in the open about lies, damn lies and statistics.
The mood was not one for jollification when our legislators met on the banks of the Diyawanna on Tuesday. The deadly pandemic was raging, Colombo being the highest, some 18,000 cases islandwide and more than 66 deaths. The economic statistics were as grim, oscillating between survival and bankruptcy with a billion-dollar debt burden.
The scene inside the chamber, as seen on TV, however, was not grim. Many Pohottuwa legislators were in a cocky mood, some clad nattily in morning coats and flashy ties, indicating booming economic prosperity and not poverty and impending doom. Most government legislators, however, were in the traditional white national, conveying a more sombre mood. Some ex-UNPers now with Premadasa’s SJB, too, were in their flashy morning suits–having introduced this sartorial fashion in their time.
The Pohottuwa lawmakers were in the Emden Spirit: ‘Nava gilunath band chune’ - Keep the band playing even if the ship goes down. Certainly, the ship cannot go down with Gota at the helm! Didn’t he win the ‘Unwinnable War’? Didn’t he tackle the first wave of the Pandemic with aplomb? We shall overcome all under his leadership! was the mood.
Of course, the Yahapalanaya was to blame for all this mess—political and financial crises and the corruption that brought down the nation. President Gotabaya had to function for a greater part of the year with a parliament opposed to him. It’s not ‘Gota Fail’. It is ‘Ranil fail’, they countered.
The Opposition had plenty of ammunition and a few good gunners but the two-thirds majority around was too much–cannon to the left of them, cannon to the right of them, cannon in front…. It was like the Charge of the Light Brigade.
Harsha de Silva, the best qualified economist in Opposition ranks, questioned the statistics in the budget speech. He pointed out that although the IMF and the Central Bank earlier expected the economic growth rate in 2020 would be -4.7 percent and -1.7 percent respectively, the Government claims that the nominal economic growth rate is 6.7 percent which cannot be true. If the nominal rate is 6.7 percent and inflation rate is 4 percent and the economic growth rate becomes 2.7 percent. He asked the Government for the rate of inflation. According to the Central Bank report, the total government expenditure was Rs 2,915 billion, whereas in the budget speech it was said the total expenditure was 3,428 billion.
The growth rate of many other countries such as India is projected at -1.5 percent, Spain -13 percent and the UK -10 percent. Thus, how could Sri Lanka project a plus growth rate? he asked. Even a massive economy like Greece collapsed in 2010 because it presented false statistics on the economy, de Silva said.
Former Minister Patali Champika Ranawaka predicted that Sri Lanka’s debt would increase by twofold to Rs 28 trillion within the next four years and said the present Government imposed taxes last December and gave huge benefits to the wealthy, costing the country Rs 700 to 800 billion.
The Pohottuwa defence was that the present state of the nation was a product of the sins of previous UNP and Yahapalana governments.
Government MP Charitha Herath thought that the 0pposition’s criticism was the result of the previous government being ousted by the people and the election of the present government. This Government expected the Opposition to come up with productive comments, but it was regrettable that all opposition comments were laced with bitterness.
Another government MP Dilan Perera noted that the Opposition was a failure in all aspects and even a bigger failure than the UNP. They were trying to find failures of the Government than correcting their own mistakes.
The cut and thrust of the budget debate seem to be taking the usual course: What did you do in your time? And the counter argument–We did much better than what you are doing now.
The crucial issue is that there is a billion dollar debt burden and whether the incumbent Government has the resources to pay it. How it will be done the Government won’t say and how it can be done the Opposition does not seem to have the foggiest notion.
Meanwhile, the Covid virus is felling the nation while some say it is only the ‘Minuwangoda Cluster’.
It does seem like the scenario being enacted right now in the Land of Hope and Glory. Donald Trump trumpets: Lies, damn lies and Fake News while Democrats, CNN and most of the media say: It’s the Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth. What convinced us most was a demonstrator carrying a placard: Judgment Day is Coming.
The Budget debate by the Diyawanna will meander as the seventy odd such debates had done before into December and be passed by a resounding 2/3rd majority. We can only hope numbers of victims of the pandemic decrease and ways and means be found to offload the billion dollar foreign debt as those nattily dressed gentlemen in their morning coats rattling off statistics convey the impression that ours is an affluent nation with no severe economic problems.
Our thoughts go back to old times when well-dressed gentlemen with little in their pockets pretended to be affluent. Clean suit, empty pocket, they were called.
(The writer is a former editor of The Sunday Island, The Island and consultant editor of the Sunday Leader.)