The tourism conundrum
View(s):There were many ‘hurrahs’ under the Margosa tree after Thursday’s judgment in the Supreme Court declaring that the Presidential decree dissolving Parliament and calling early elections was an unconstitutional move.
“Bohoma hondai (very good),” enthused Kussi Amma Sera, who was earlier angered by President Maithripala Sirisena’s executive orders.
“Ehemai, ehemai (yes, yes),” nodded Serapina. Absent from the normal, three-way discussion was Mabel Rasthiyadu, the down-the-lane gossip, who was away in her village attending to some family business.
“Dan mokada wenne (what happens now)?” asked Kussi Amma Sera and at this point, I moved into the dining room from the office room window to answer a call on the landline.
“I shay, what will happen now,” said know-all neighbour Haramanis of broken-English fame on the phone. “Will government be working (meaning will a proper government be in force)?”
“I’m not sure because the actions of the President – appointing a new Prime Minister, proroguing Parliament and then dissolving it – have created a lot of complications. Then add the number of petitions in court against or supportive of these orders…….and you still have a very complex situation in the country,” I said in response.
The whole country and its economy were turned upside down by a single stroke of the pen – the Presidential order sacking Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on October 26. The latest ruling by the Supreme Court means the anti-Sirisena forces have won the battle but not the war with many issues remaining unresolved.
While businesses have expressed concern over the turn of events since October 26 which have impacted all sectors of the economy, perhaps the worst affected is the tourism industry.
The impact is expected to be more long term – three to six months down the line – instead of short term. For example, November’s tourist arrivals registered an increase, though they were expected to drop.
November arrivals rose by 16.8 per cent to 195,582 guests against the same 2017 month. According to official data, arrivals from India, Sri Lanka’s main market, rose by 21.4 per cent while other key markets like the UK (up sharply by 61.1 per cent – partly due to the presence of the ‘Barmy Army’, a popular group of British nationals who travel the world backing the England cricket team) and Germany (sharply up by 89.6 per cent) also performed well except for China which recorded a 1.8 per cent drop.
The industry is also facing multiple problems adding to the gloomy sentiment. Forward bookings, according to some hotel managers, have dropped while the depreciation of the rupee, by 18 per cent against the US dollar so far this year, is also causing some issues owing to an import content that goes into tourism, though on one hand it makes Sri Lanka a cheaper destination.
There has been a drop in MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Events) bookings and inquiries, which represents 15 per cent and over of the tourism industry. The issue was further aggravated after an angry President, concerned that a tourism event that he was expected to attend as chief guest would be boycotted by hoteliers and travel agents in protest over his recent moves, issued an order banning state functions in tourist hotels.
While tourism associations quickly issued a statement saying members will attend the state tourism awards function on December 6, the President sent his chief of staff as his replacement. The same evening, Sirisena ordered a ban on state events in hotels saying that such events should be held in state-owned facilities, reasoning that this is a measure to cut costs. The industry, however, perceived the move as a stinging rebuke and a knee-jerk reaction – like many of the President’s recent moves — to a likely boycott of the awards in a show of protest against Sirisena.
Industry officials said MICE represents 25-30 per cent of the business of any hotel and such a ban would adversely affect hotels and the industry
“We are having multiple issues. In the MICE market, while bookings have not been cancelled, some however have been postponed and there are no new bookings and inquiries,” one official said.
On top of this came the Presidential ban. “MICE business makes up a sizable segment of the hotel business. We organise many programmes in hotels involving government bodies and this ban would affect hotels,” he said.
Another top industry official said the situation was very unstable not only for tourism but most economic sectors. “It’s very unstable as there is no proper government functioning.”
Without a tourism minister for several weeks – after Wasantha Senanayake’s quick entry and equally-quick exit as the minister in charge of this subject – the promising “So Sri Lanka” tourism slogan cum branding campaign has come to a standstill. The slogan was launched on November 5 at the WTM tourism fair in London with a much-awaited, multi-million dollar destination marketing campaign set to be launched at the ITB tourism fair in March in Berlin.
However, in the absence of a tourism minister and officials in temporary positions – without a Cabinet in operation – tenders and other processes are likely to delay the launch of the formal campaign.
Other industry officials said that while FITs (Free Independent Travellers) and family travellers are unlikely to get affected, organised group travel was seen as a casualty owing to the unpredictable political situation. Travel advisories by several countries, warning nationals of those countries to avoid areas where there could be protests and other trouble, were also an issue. December is a period when several Sri Lankans living overseas – particularly in Australia, the US and Europe – visit family and relatives in Sri Lanka. This market has also been partly affected.
Having completed a long conversation with Haramanis, Kussi Amma Sera brought the morning tea, just as I began my column, asking, “Mahattaya, ratata hari yai-de (Will the country recover now)?” “Balaporoththu-wenawa, balaporoththu-wenawa (I hope so, I hope so),” I said.
The country’s unending constitutional deadlock and political impasse which are seen by many as a personality clash between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe need to be resolved fast without further damaging the economy, particularly tourism sentiment. Over the past few weeks, business leaders have been urging the President and government leaders to quickly bring the crisis to an end. The quicker Sirisena puts country before self, the better.