Sunday Times 2
Is World War III imminent?
View(s):Will North Korea be reduced to shambles as a result of the stupidity of Kim Jong un?
By Jayantha Gunasekera
North Korean leader Kim Jong un has a bloated opinion of himself. It is said that he is a lacklustre individual who has had greatness thrust upon him. As soon as he succeeded as the leader of North Korea he had his uncle put to death. As recently as about two months ago he had his half brother killed suspecting that he may be a threat in the line of succession.  Now, he has met his match in Donald Trump. Trump means business and he is a man not to be trifled with.
The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70). Trump has ordered the NIMITZ class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson to sail towards North Korea, but it has now sailed towards the South West Pacific and not towards the Koreas. Pic Reuters
Trump made a tactical blunder by his attack on Syria unnecessarily antagonising Russia at this juncture. Russia hitherto extended a warm hand of friendship to the US after Trump’s election. Assad’s poison gas attack on his own countrymen did not affect the US in anyway and even if Trump stands on his head, Putin will not abandon Syria’s Assad, having gone this far. This action is likely to be interpreted as a signal to Russia and countries such as North Korea, China and Iran where Trump has faced foreign policy tests early in his presidency, of his willingness to use force. The warships “USS Porter” and “USS Ross” in the Mediterranean sea launched dozens of Tomahawk missiles at the Shayrat air base, which the Pentagon says was involved in a chemical weapons attack on the Syrians. America also exploded a “Huge US Bomb” in Afghanistan which is non-nuclear in nature. This is called the “Mother of all bombs: killing 90 Islamic militants in Afghanistan. The US should take on one enemy at a time and cease attacking on all fronts antagonising presently friendly countries.
However, US lawmakers from both parties backed Trump’s action but demanded that he spell out a broader strategy for dealing with the conflict and consult with Congress on any further action. Syria is accused of using Sarin gas a banned nerve agent.  The US has deployed THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) a system designed to shoot down missiles from North Korea or elsewhere.
Japan and South Korea are directly in the firing line from North Korea. The US has about 30,000 troops stationed in South Korea. If any one of them is injured all hell will break loose.
However, operational sub-marine launched devices could give the North the ability to strike without warning from a vessel somewhere in the Pacific Ocean.
This week a North Korean missile failed when an unidentified projectile exploded to Kim Jong un’s embarrassment.
North Korea is an extremely poor country and its people are kept crushed by Kim Jong un’s army and no opposition is tolerated. Kim Jong un cannot fight a protracted war with conventional weapons. It can fight only a nuclear war which will not last long. Though the North has fired ballistic missiles there is doubt that the North possesses nuclear warheads.  People in North Korea may rise against un. For them to survive un may have to go. How un’s power can be controlled is anybody’s guess.
Trump has ordered the NIMITZ class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, two guided missile destroyers and a guided missile cruiser to sail towards North Korea, but it has now sailed towards the South West Pacific, and not towards the Koreas. A barrage of North Korean missile tests have stoked US fears that Pyongyang may soon have an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear war head to the US mainland. So, before all this becomes a reality Trump feels North Korea must be incapacitated, which means thousand will have to die. Trump has made no bones about the fact that Obama has slept over the military growth of North Korea without nipping it in the bud.
China which has been backing North Korea may not want to risk being themselves incapacitated by going to the rescue of North Korea though sabre-rattling between Washington are Pyongyang has unnerved China. However China has placed its army on high alert in the north, close to the Koreas.
Trump’s recent meeting with China’s President Xi Jin Ping was described as outstanding. The friendly tone was a far cry from Trump’s acerbic campaign denouncements about China’s “rape” of the US economy and his vow to punish China with punitive tariffs.  Trump has certainly proved that he is unpredictable and eventually un may have to face the music all by himself unless he buckles down.
To date all diplomatic efforts to prevent North Korea’s nuclear armament growth have failed. It is only a matter of time until North Korea has nuclear armed missiles that can reach South Korea, Japan and the West Coast of North America. The Trump administration views North Korea’s pursuit of intercontinental missiles capable of reaching San Francisco or Los Angeles as justification for war.
Kim Jong un has had the temerity to threaten that he will sink the USS Super Aircraft carrier “Carl Vinson”.
It is suspected that the failure of the recent North Korea’s missiles test could have been caused by US cyber attacks.
The Trump administration is hopeful that China would use extraordinary pressure to prevail upon North Korea to give up nuclear weapons.
Vice President Mike Pence said that the world witnesses the strength and resolve of the new US President in action taken in Afghanistan and Syria. North Korea should not test his resolve or strength of the armed forces of the US.
A military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula could lead to a nightmare scenario in which nuclear weapons are used, or even to a large clash between nuclear armed global powers. North Korea’s concerted push to develop nuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missiles means that Obama’s continued wait and see policy is no longer an option. Nuclear or conventional war on Korean peninsula would carry incalculable regional and global risks, and the economies of countries such as India and Sri Lanka will be affected.
The Trump administration should not pursue an overly aggressive policy towards China in the South China Sea nor an aggressive policy towards Russia. If these two countries join hands with Iran and North Korea, the US may find itself largely incapacitated. The economies of all these countries built up over the years would naturally be in shambles.
World War 3, should not be dreamt of as an option.
(The writer is a President’s Counsel.)