The negative vitriol emanating from the global political leadership is having consequences in the most unexpected places. The anaemic growth rates of most of the older developed economies of the world, coupled with negative investor sentiment have put a dampener on white collar wage growth in many countries. This is becoming a thorny political issue in countries that have a skilled, or points-based immigration program.
 With the current muddle through economy set to last at least another two years, would-be migrants are facing some of the hardest questions not faced by their peers for at least the last two decades. A closer look at the key economies that attract skilled migrants points to some opportunities, but on a balance of probabilities, the outlook has muddied more than last year. While wholesale statements about countries and sectors are an oversimplification of a complex matter, the broader outlook portends some risks potential migrants would benefit by considering in their analysis. A country-based analysis reveals interesting discrepancies.
USA
While unemployment topping 9% may not be the most welcoming statement, I still remain positive on the outlook in the US for highly skilled technical graduates especially from the elite universities. While risks are higher than in the past, the strength of many corporations and growth from emerging markets are to benefit them disproportionately providing technical graduates with a great environment over the next decade. The advantages unfortunately end there. Growing inwardness in Congress, denying the much sought work permits and the time taken to become a citizen are turning away droves of the best and brightest. White collar wages will continue to be under tremendous pressure as companies may well elect to set up more value added units overseas, especially India.
UK
If race riots, confused politics and the last grasps of empire weren’t enough negatives, harsh austerity has definitely pushed the UK to a no-go zone for any well qualified immigrant. With financial services having accounted for a bulk of economic growth and activity, the household de-leveraging cycle has hurt broader economic prospects. The lack of innovation and major cuts in public finances are further bad news to new immigrants. The government will be forced to further cut allocation to skilled migrants from outside Europe as the UK is forced to accept the unemployed youth of the peripheral ‘basket cases’ such as Greece and Ireland.
New Zealand
Small, insignificant and badly damaged by natural disasters, especially in the South island of the country, New Zealand is a puzzle for new immigrants. Without any vibrant industry, barring farming and a few related sub sectors, the fortunes of the Kiwis are firmly tied to continued global food demand – but more importantly – a continued rise in prices for these soft commodities. Outlook for white collar employment is the worst in two decades with high interest rates and the destruction caused by the recent earthquake permanently shutting down some businesses. While soft commodities should hold steady, a continued rise is not guaranteed as supply increases from around the world are bound to have a negative impact in the short to medium term.
Canada
The poorer cousin of their southern behemoth (according to citizens of the southern behemoth), the outlook for Canada is firmly tied to demand for resources from China. This has created mixed employment opportunities for new migrants, but white collar jobs have dropped sharply due to Canada’s reliance on the broader economic well-being of the United States for the success of the non-resources sector. Continuing uncertainty around the outlook for the US coupled with rising wages in the resources sector are hurting most of the industries that are usually open to new migrants. New migrants should expect prolonged periods of searching for white collar roles in a range of industries.
Australia
Canada is merely a sideshow when compared to the main act of what a patchwork economy looks and feels. Welcome to Australia where truck drivers in the mines of Western Australia make more money than doctors. The insatiable demand for Australia’s dirt by China and other developing countries has lead to a bifurcated economy and jobs market. White collar job advertisements have fallen for two months running and non-resources sectors are in decline with major job cuts over the last month. The sorts of jobs that are being created are technical blue collar workers for mining sites thousands of miles away from civilisation and a handful of associated white collar jobs. With an oversupply of non technical graduates competing for white collar roles with new arrivals, migrants should expect a long wait for their ideal roles.
Australia’s non-resources outlook is made more precarious by artificially inflated house prices and high inflation caused by rising input costs.
Conclusion
These are difficult times for employees, irrespective of where one lives. The challenges of finding appropriate employment in a new country are difficult at the best of times. While well qualified applicants with the right motivation and soft skills will always find deserving roles, the outlook hasn’t looked this doubtful for quite some time.
(Kajanga is an Investment Specialist based in Sydney, Australia. You can write to him at kajangak@gmail.com). |
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