The South is the barometer to test the pulse of the nation. Chandrika Kumaratunga emerged as the President-in-waiting after the Southern provincial election; and made President Wijetunga look a lame duck. That was the beginning of the end of an 18-year UNP regime.
Now is the time for the litmus test. It is the margin of the victory at the election that holds the interest more than the obvious result in the South. Is the government maintaining the momentum or is there a downward trend that may narrow the majorities? How strong is the government as it enters the final stretch of the Super Two -- the parliamentary and presidential elections?
The government has been sailing comfortably on a gratitude vote after winning the 'unwinnable' war with the performance of a lacklustre opposition also helping it. The Southern election comes at a time when the war is fading into the background and the economy and good governance are emerging as prime issues with corruption being legion.
The gratitude factor will be favouring the President, but will it stay with the Parliamentarians? Doubtful, because the state media fashioned the spoils of the war to benefit the President -- and the provincial councillors benefited from the overflow. But will this factor alone help unpopular parliamentarians to return to Parliament?
UNP parliamentarians (except for a few) who crossed over would be vulnerable having caressed the terrorists with political packages and ceasefire agreements; having cohabited with Norway and serenaded the NGOs.
However, the NFF and the JHU have long supported the military and the struggle against terrorism and shown commitment to national causes. The SLFP voters do not see them as strangers unlike the UNP parliamentarians in their midst. However, except for a few, the names of NFF and JHU parliamentarians are not embedded in the public mind.
The Government has to carry many 'dead ducks' incapable of garnering votes that is required to swell the aggregate vote and increase its number in parliament. It could be another indecisive parliament!
Compelled to run an assortment of candidates from other parties, the government candidates' list will not contain many unspoiled names capable of attracting fresh votes, though the victory at war and the opposition's inherent weakness will be their strength.
The national lists of both parties are bound to be top heavy with inmates fit for a home for the aged -- incapable of being presented to the electorate. All parties will run on their slates those who can purchase votes and such candidates are likely to top the preferential votes. Having made their money in shady deals, these candidates will be ready to defect to the winner for a portfolio. Sure, it will be a new parliament over-represented by money bags.
The JVP is unlikely to acquire the required 5% in any district to qualify for seats at the general elections, and would probably secure one seat on the national list based on the overall vote. For the JVP, a common candidate at the presidential election is of paramount importance. It needs the additional opposition votes to be elected to Parliament but to join the UNP means losing the credibility of its miniscule voter base. Yet it needs a platform at the presidential election and cannot afford to be a silent observer with the general elections in the offing. The JVP on a platform with the UNP would mean the disappearance of a disciplined party which once displayed principles?
The newly-formed NFF is a one-man band whose sole trumpeter will have to blow his own trumpet to attract votes for his party while the JHU has to convince the country of the good work it has done in the Ministry under its purview. This probably is the last run for the Old Left with their decadent museum pieces.
The ruling party has a major plus point in destroying terrorism in its first term. Who cares about human rights -- except those paid to propagate -- when people can live a secure life after the horrid experiences they underwent?
The defence forces were able to achieve the entrusted assignment. In the next term the ruling party has to provide a better life for the people; the administrative service is incapable of accomplishing the task unlike the military. Therein lies the difference between a disciplined and committed military and a corrupt politicized administrative service.
The President's term of office is over after the second run. Therefore in the last quarter of the second presidential term, there will be moves to win over opposition parties and MPs, unless the government has a formidable Presidential candidate in the forefront. The results of the second term will be compared unfavorably as against the successful first term with the war being won. The level of corruption will enhance the financial war chest of the opposition, with those guilty being the chief contributors -- making sure corruption will continue to flourish endlessly.
The opposition leaders will be looking to the presidential election of 2016 rather than 2010, and concentrate more on the coming parliamentary elections. This would make them lose both. The opposition has fine tuned the art of picking and presenting election issues to strengthen the government. The UNP has only to acquire the NGO-sponsored issues in the market for the government to punch a knockout blow by making the opposition look as friends of terrorists. Will the UNP have the ability to recover by following a style that attracts only their majority in Colombo?
The UNP carries second tier candidates but does not possess a winning candidate to lead a campaign while the government has a winner in their ranks but is virtually bare without a credible second tier. Most voters are opportunistic and will swing behind the winner. The second term is bound to be problematic for the ruling party. With another defeat the UNP could further disintegrate as a party but can attract promising new candidates, after more defections.
Both parties may well search for war heroes as possible candidates with the politicians continuing to discredit themselves still more. There will be many from the Forces on offer.
The writer is an
Attorney-at-Law |
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