Rajapaksa: Reeling or roaring?

~ Our continuous assessment report on the performance of the President of Sri Lanka

Two years ago today, Percy Mahinda Rajapaksa was celebrating his 60th birthday, but he had more reason to rejoice, as he waited anxiously at Temple Trees with close family members and a few friends: election results that had just come in declared him the winner of the presidential election and therefore, the fifth executive president of Sri Lanka.

Even at that time, Rajapaksa's victory was not convincing to many. The majority was a mere 180,000 votes in a contest where over 9.8 million voters cast their ballots. The election was one of the most acrimonious and closely contested in the history of Sri Lankan presidential polls.

The United National Party contender, Ranil Wickremesinghe, had good reason to feel robbed of victory because a majority of voters in the North --and some in the East -- kept away from the polls in fear of reprisals from the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) which had called for a boycott of the election.

But if some believed that Mahinda Rajapaksa was a pretender to the throne, there was also no doubt about the other side of the coin: just as much as Wickremesinghe may have won if the North and East wholeheartedly went to the polls, he had been overwhelmingly defeated in the South where, in some districts, Rajapaksa garnered over sixty per cent of the vote.

Two years on would be an appropriate point to take stock: Rajapaksa has now finished a third of his first term, the 'feel good' effect that follows any election has worn off and if there are matters that need to be put right, the President has four more years to do so.

At first glance Rajapaksa's report card doesn't make very good reading. The President has plunged the country into an all-out war believing that crushing the LTTE militarily is the only way of bringing about the 'honourable peace' he promised from the platforms of his election campaign. The cost of living is rising by the hour and Sri Lanka is fast earning pariah status for its human rights record.

Rajapaksa's two years in office though has to be put in perspective against the mandate he was elected on. At the presidential poll, his aim was to be the focal point of all forces that opposed the liberal policies of Ranil Wickremesinghe and the United National Party (UNP). The result was a coalition of a dozen parties, a motley crowd at best and an unhealthy potpourri at worst.

The President also had to contend with another factor. It was an open secret that sections of his own Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) fought shy of endorsing his candidature and that the bulk of the 'donkey work' of the campaign was carried out by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). As President therefore, Rajapaksa had to rein in his party before reigning over his country.

In this, Rajapaksa the political animal appears to have lost his scent. Instead of placating Mangala Samaraweera and keeping the not so innocent former fashion designer on his side, Rajapaksa chose to do what Ranasinghe Premadasa did to Gamini Dissanayake and banished him from the cabinet. Now Samaraweera is a formidable adversary and a potent stimulant for the once somnolent UNP.

Therefore, a sense of insecurity born out of the circumstances preceding his election seems to have dogged the Rajapaksa presidency from its inception compelling him to play politician rather than statesman. The results, after two years are not encouraging. And those who voted for him two years ago are now complaining that with Mahinda Rajapaksa, what you see is not what you get.

Consider this: of those supporting him in Parliament more than 40 MPs have been elected under the 'elephant' symbol and of those opposing him in Parliament, more than 40 MPs have been elected under the 'betel leaf' symbol of the United Peoples' Freedom Alliance (UPFA). So, while Rajapaksa tries to be all things to all people, he is not his own man.

Rajapaksa had succeeded in leading an unlikely rainbow coalition ranging from the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) to the Upcountry Peoples' Front (UPF) -- even more inclusive and exemplary than the 1947 Cabinet of D.S. Senanayake or the 1960 Cabinet of Dudley Senanayake -- but whether he is the draw or whether it is the perks and privileges that go with Cabinet status is the question.

The President's choice of UNPers invited to join the government leaves his political sincerity in doubt: there are Susantha Punchinilame and Mahinda Ratnatilleke, both accused in the Nalanda Ellawala murder case and provincial councillor Duminda Silva, another young man with a questionable track record. One can almost hear the UNP saying, 'good riddance of bad rubbish'!

The Cabinet is also a contentious issue now. With over a hundred ministers it would have been a bit of a joke if not for the humongous costs involved. The realpolitik of the numbers game in Parliament has made it a fact of life for the Rajapaksa presidency and the President appears to have no qualms about dishing out meaningless portfolios to anyone who bothers to ask for one.

Keeping the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), the Ceylon Workers' Congress (CWC), the Eelam Peoples' Democratic party (EPDP) and the JHU not to mention the SLFP and the renegade faction of the UNP in one room must be difficult, let alone getting them to agree on any matter. And Rajapaksa does not have a Premadasa type persona to be absolutely dictatorial either.

And the slips ups do show. Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama repeatedly affirms his government's commitment to a negotiated settlement to the ethnic conflict, while Defence Secretary and presidential sibling Gotabhaya Rajapaksa constantly claims that terrorism must be defeated by military means alone.

Needless to say, the international community is not convinced of Rajapaksa's bona fides. United Nations(UN) undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs John Holmes, UN special rapporteur Manfred Nowak and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour all visited Sri Lanka and then made scathing comments that showed Rajapaksa in a poor light, perhaps unfairly so.

The All Party Representative Committee (APRC) summoned by Rajapaksa has yielded little consensus. The accusation against the President was that he was never really keen to offer a genuine transfer of power to the minorities, reverting to the 'district' as the unit of devolution thereby ensuring a natural death for the APRC. Whatever the reason, the APRC is now awaiting its last rites.

This sense of general incompetence in matters of governance permeates domestic issues as well. We have the courts of law deciding on gas prices, telephone tariffs, school admissions and strikes by teachers — in an unprecedented flurry of public interest litigation. It is as if the government, top heavy with ministers, was a monster in slumber needing constant prodding by the judiciary.

Even as the government's incompetence is highlighted by the verdicts of a vigilant judiciary, many an incident that would have shocked a more sensitive, insightful and politically correct administration has been ignored for the sake of political expediency -- with the President ultimately being held responsible.

There is "Dutugemunu re-incarnate" Dr. Mervyn Silva's son allegedly bashing up people in night clubs, a jumbo sized delegation living it up at the tax payers' expense at the UN in New York and Ministers criss-crossing the world on utterly useless trips hoodwinking the naive President that they are delivering the goods, all adding up to the governments 'devil may care' image.

Then, when the Committee on Public Enterprise (COPE) revealed details of corruption in high places, there were moves to soft peddle the COPE findings. Part of the President's problem is that some UNPers responsible for the alleged misdeeds are now with him. Therefore, it is not as if the President cannot crack the whip; it seems as if he just doesn't want to. The stink from this mess was so foul that COPE Chairman Wijeyadasa Rajapakse opted to cross over to the other side this week.

All this may have been tolerated, if the government had got its act together on the economy. But Bandula Gunawardena plays the foolhardy clown and prices of essential goods soar as the regime's many pundits tell us again and again why nothing can be done about it.

Again the priorities for the government seem to be misplaced because Mihin Air and building an international airport at Weerawila -- two money guzzling projects -- appear to be high on the agenda. If this trend continues Rajapaksa may soon find that people, not only armies, march on their stomachs. But by then, they may be marching to President's House.

The response of those around the President to the many brickbats that have been thrown at Rajapakse is to try and kill the messenger. Mahinda Rajapaksa, formerly a friend of the media and the 'reporter' in the Chandrika Kumaratunga cabinet, is now advocating media censorship and criminal defamation. Fortunately, saner counsel prevailed and both attempts came to nought.

Yet, the media continue to be harassed, especially those who dwell on military matters. Those in power must realise that those exposing shortcomings in the armed forces cannot be lumped simply as 'traitors' and then, hounded. The real anti-national elements are those who have played out millions of state funds, and there is a feeling that the President is treating them with some compassion.

There is also a perception that the President has metamorphosed from his former image of a champion of the downtrodden to a more sinister role. After all here is a man, once the author of 'pada yatras' and 'jana goshas' and one who went complaining to human rights groups during the UNP's period of rule, now saying that those who do similar things are acting against the nation.

Here is also someone who otherwise led a simple existence and abhorred ostentatious living now being accused of the high life, especially when travelling abroad with dozens in tow. It is well and good to proclaim the virtues of eating kurakkan and drinking 'ela kiri' at the 'vap magula' but this rings a bit hollow when one stays at the at the 4000-dollar suite at the Ritz Carlton when in New York.

If these are the negatives that President Rajapaksa has blotted his copybook with, what has he done right? To give credit where it is due it may be safely said that he has been the one President who has opted for a steadfast and consistent stand against the LTTE on the war front. He has acted as if war was too serious a matter to be left for politicians alone -- and let the generals run the show.

He had his share of military setbacks, notably the air strikes launched by the Tigers and the attack on the Anuradhapura Air Force base. But he has had his successes too, the most significant being the ejection of the LTTE from the East, rather than the killing of LTTE political head S.P. Thamilselvan which may have been a fortuitous 'pottey' shot.

With the Tigers now being confined to the Wanni and looking cornered, for once, the generals, squadron leaders and rear admirals are happy -- they know their Commander-in-Chief is a leader who will not bend over backwards to please the Tiger.

Not surprisingly then, prosecuting the war against the LTTE remains not only Rajapaksa's biggest selling point, it is possibly his only selling point as well. Support me and help me rid the country of the Tiger, Rajapaksa says without any pretence and it is not a bad slogan either: there is nothing Ranil Wickremesinghe or anyone else can say to counter that.

It is also a slogan with which Rajapaksa has held the JVP in a tight bind. When the UNP is calling on the leftists to match their criticisms of the government with the more pragmatic step of voting against it, Rajapaksa's clever retort is to point out that destabilising his regime would amount to weakening the battle against the LTTE.

That will strike a chord in the southern Sinhala majority areas and even sway the JVP into voting for the budget -- or at least abstain from voting against it. But it is too fragile a platform to bank on with four years of the President's first term of office still remaining.

Indeed this past week Rajapaksa was totally preoccupied with the task of saving his slim parliamentary majority and only tomorrow's vote on the budget will tell whether he was successful or whether he would have to resort to dissolving or proroguing Parliament to avoid an embarrassing scenario. But Rajapaksa will feel safe in the thought that no matter what, he would still be President.

Mahinda Rajapaksa does not have to look far to realise what can happen if the country is not a better place to live in after four more years: Chandrika Kumaratunga's charismatic smile and her Vihara Maha Devi like allure to the masses was soon lost after the hard facts of a protracted war, rampant corruption and an economic downturn hit the electorate.

Four years on, if that is Mahinda Rajapaksa's legacy as well, then the reassuring pat on the back, and the beaming smile of the 'maha kalu Sinhalaya' from Medamulana may not be enough to win for him a re-election. And the sooner that Percy Mahinda Rajapaksa and those in his inner circle realise that, the better it would augur not only for him but for Sri Lanka as well.