The Sunday Times Political Column

The On-Off political alliance between the JVP and the ruling SLFP is 'On" again with the prospect of the former joining the Government very likely.

That possibility emerged on Friday after the leaders of the two sides engaged in two hours of intense talks where differences were thrashed out. The three critical issues that came up for discussion were: (1) the abrogation of the Ceasefire Agreement of February 2002; (2) the withdrawal of Norway from being a peace facilitator; and (3) the de-merger of the north and east provinces.

These three issues, thorny as they are, remain the last hurdles for the JVP joining the SLFP-led Government.

Taking part in the discussion on the Government side were Ministers Maithripala Sirisena (who is also pary secretary), Mangala Samaraweera, Susil Premajayantha, Anura Priyadarshana Yapa and Dulles Allahapperuma. The JVP team comprised Tilvin Silva (JVP party secretary), Wimal Weerawansa and K.D. Lalkantha.

Both sides remained tightlipped about the issues discussed. The Sunday Times learns that the two sides expressed their views frankly on the three contentious issues and common ground was reached where their policies were concerned. It is learnt that the two sides had acknowledged the need to get together in the light of what one insider called 'the critical situation facing the country'. A final decision, he said, was going to be "very positive", but then, he declined to elaborate, saying it was still too premature to make a definitive statement.

He pointed out that the SLFP has deferred taking a decision on the 'National Question' at its party convention earlier in the week precisely because of the pending talks with the JVP, whose three main demands revolve around the northern insurgency.

This final decision now rests on the hands of the President Mahinda Rajapaksa and JVP leader Somawansa Amerasinghe. The latter is now in South Korea taking part in a seminar on political issues in the region. Upon his return, he will meet President Rajapaksa. This meeting will take place before President Rajapaksa leaves for Cuba to attend the Non Aligned Summit and later to New York to attend the General Assembly sessions of the United Nations. He is expected to leave next Thursday (September 14).

In New York, of course, President Rajapaksa may have to vie for the world limelight with his immediate predecessor in office, Chandrika Kumaratunga.

While the incumbent President is to address the General Assembly, Kumaratunga has been invited for a conference of world have-beens (former Heads of State) at the Waldorf Astoria, an event organised by former US President Bill Clinton.

It has been agreed that the summit level meting between the Government leaders and the JVP will take place before Rajapaksa's departure. It is here that they will formulate the parameters within which a Government-JVP alliance should take shape. That would naturally mean the Government does not expect a positive response from the UNP to form a national government.

Opposition UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe wrote to President Rajapaksa on Tuesday asking for a meeting to discuss his invitation to the UNP to support the Government (as opposed to forming a National Government) 'in the defence of the Motherland'.

That letter which was addressed to deputy leader Karu Jayasuriya when Wickremesinghe was abroad has turned the opposition party into a spin with several construing the letter to mean an invite to join the Government, while others were more sceptical about it saying that it was merely meant to seduce some of the UNPers and put a spanner in the works within the UNP.

Even JVPers felt that the letter to Karu Jayasuriya was a two-pronged attack; one to put a spanner in the UNP works; and the other to tell the JVP; "Buddies, if you don't wanna join me I can join with the UNP", something that was anathema to the red-shirts.

Government leaders felt that the UNPers opposed to any link with the Government at this stage included Ranil Wickremesinghe himself, and party stalwarts such as S.B. Dissanayake, while others like Karu Jayasuriya, G.L. Peiris and Rajitha Senaratne were keen on exploring the invitation further.

Thus, the Wickremesinghe letter to the President.

During the JVP-SLFP talks on Friday, Foreign Minister Samaraweera used the occasion to brief the two sides on the recent move by the LTTE to get a resolution passed by the European Parliament. According to reports, the LTTE, allegedly backed by Norway, pushed for a EU parliament resolution criticizing the Sri Lankan government for freezing the multi-million rupee bank accounts of the Tamil Rehabilitation Organisation. The resolution was also critical of the recent EU ban on the LTTE. But the resolution was defeated in the EU parliament.

Samaraweeera said the resolution was originally much harsher against Sri Lanka and the Foreign Ministry using its own resources had been able to canvass to have it softened. There were also some critical references to the LTTE as well in that resolution, Samaraweera said.

He also made a critical analysis of the Ceasefire Agreement. He said the LTTE was now complaining that the security forces' takeover of Sampur was a violation of the CFA. This shows how the ceasefire had given LTTE a so-called right to stake claims to territory. When did any Government concede territory to the LTTE? He said such hollow claims could be made by the LTTE only because of the flawed Ceasefire Agreement. The role of a female official working for a UN agency also figured during the discussion. This Tamil lady is alleged to have prevented refugees now living in tents in Kantale from returning to their homesteads. The move, it was pointed out, had prompted the Ministry of Defence to raise issue with the UN organisation in question. They were told that she faced arrest if the agency in question did not deal with her immediately.

Against this backdrop both the Government and the LTTE appear to be bracing themselves for the Brussels meeting on Monday of the donor co-chairs. For the Government, three issues are critical -- the Air Force bombing of Sencholai, the SLMM allegation that the security forces killed 17 aid workers at Mutur and allegations of human rights (and humanitarian law) violations. For the LTTE, the massacre of Muslims during its attacks on security forces positions in Mutur is to figure prominently.

It has come to light that Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair made a significant observation during private talks two weeks ago with President Rajapaksa. He said during British Government's talks with Sinn Fein, they were not given equal status. However, in the case of the LTTE, he observed, that it had been given equal status with the Government.

Back at home, President Rajapaksa was having one irritant -- the outspokenness of his Tourism Minister Anura Bandaranaike.

Bandaranaike has been restless for some time, writing letters and making public statements. Only a fortnight ago he had fired a salvo at the party secretary Maithripala Sirisena in rather abusive language on what he wrongly perceived to be a snub on his sister, the former President by the party hierarchy in not inviting her for the party's annual convention. He added, for good measure, that he would not be attending the convention either.

This seemed to earn him the wrath not only of Sirisena, a one-time Bandaranaike faithful, and who was now steadfastly backing the President, but of the President himself.

Having summoned Bandaranaike back from one of his frequent foreign visits (he was in Thailand at the time en route to Nepal), Rajapaksa made sure that Bandaranaike attended the party convention, where he was seen smiling at all and sundry, as if nothing had happened.

President Rajapaksa took the opportunity to tell partymen that "if they loved the party; the party will love them", and his aides were quick to tell others that this was a direct reference to Bandaranaike.

The worsening situation in the Rajapaksa-Bandaranaike relationship took another nose-dive this week when Bandaranaike, who keeps away from Parliament ever so often, made a special visit to make a special speech where he slammed Indian High Commissioner Nirupama Rao for what he called was her meddling in Sri Lanka's internal affairs. "Mind your own business", he told for the Hansard record.

But whose business was Bandaranaike minding was the question at President's House that evening when news reached that the Minister may have violated Cabinet collective responsibility in criticising a foreign envoy and thereby straining, to some extent, bilateral relations between two countries. Some of them felt that Bandaranaike was not so struck by a bolt of sudden patriotism, but by some millionaire's bidding.

That very evening President Rajapaksa telephoned a concerned Ms. Rao and put her mind at ease. Ms. Rao has been somewhat worried about the bad press she was getting largely due to India's latest diplomatic offensive in Sri Lanka's northern insurgency. Many thought that it was she who was influencing New Delhi to take its current approach of preaching a "political solution" to Sri Lanka's insurgency, but political analysts were equally certain that Delhi's approach is Delhi's and not one dictated to from the Indian Mission in Colombo.

President Rajapaksa was to tell Ms. Rao that Bandaranaike's outburst in Parliament that day had nothing to do with Government policy. If that re-assured Ms. Rao, a wishy-washy statement issued by the Government the next day must have invited concern back again in her mind.

That statement appearing in the local press, un-sourced as it was, merely said that Bandaranaike had a right to say what he did in Parliament, but that the Government did not endorse it. Surely, Ms. Rao must have wondered if President Rajapaksa was reading Machiavelli.

She reported the events back to New Delhi, which came out strongly in her defence, and rebutting any references to interference in Sri Lanka's internal affairs.

The bigger headache for President Rajapaksa would, however, still be the engagement of the LTTE in a political dialogue. The government's victories on the military front have, no doubt, given him a leg-up and the confidence to take decisive political decisions. But he would also know, that in this two-decade-long battle with the LTTE, it has always been a case of 'you win some; you lose some'.

President Rajapaksa might be a teeny-weeny bit concerned that the LTTE, defeated in the latest round of battles, has only dug its heels in, as is to be expected. Norway's Ambassador Hans Brattskar journeyed to Kilinochchi where he was told very clearly that the LTTE will not -- repeat will not -- come for any political negotiations unless the status-quo-ante is established: i.e. to say that the Tigers want all lands re-taken from them on the date the Cease Fire Agreement was signed in February 2002, "returned" to them.

This is a reference to Sampur that fell back into Government hands this week, as a happy coincidence on the day of the SLFP annual convention. Brattskar briefed President Rajapaksa's brother and political adviser Basil Rajapaksa on these developments, and the newest position of the LTTE, and this was followed up by a telephone call to the President himself thereafter from Eric Solheim -- the Norwegian Minister-in-Charge of Sri Lankan Affairs.

Yet, the President seems confident enough to jet to New York next week leaving behind a country going through fierce fighting in the north and an uneasy calm in the south. He will take the opportunity to convince world leaders that his strategy of tackling the LTTE is right, and seek their support no doubt.