inside the glass house - US in Kim’s missile muddle

NEW YORK -- The perennially-volatile Middle East, one of the world's most dangerous political hot-spots, is heading towards a calamity. The ongoing crises in Gaza and the new battle front in Lebanon have threatened to trigger a wider regional war, possibly dragging both Syria and Iran into the battle zone.

The Bush administration, whose poll ratings have plunged to its lowest ever amongst people in the Middle East, is taking hits on all fronts. The disastrous Iraq war, which has claimed the lives of 2,536 American servicemen and hundreds and thousands of Iraqi civilians, shows no signs of winding down. After more than three years of military occupation of Iraq, the US has control only of its highly fortified Green Zone. The rest is mostly urban guerrilla territory.

Despite a US-installed government in Baghdad, Iraq is already on the verge of a civil war threatening to break up into three nation states, led by Sunnis, Shias and Kurds -- even as the insurgency keeps escalating out of control. Having caught a tiger's tail, the Bush administration is reluctant to let it go, fearing it will be consumed by the stalking animal. The billions of dollars poured into Iraq are going into a rat's hole. Iraq's infrastructure remains destroyed and the prospect of post-war cheaper oil for US consumers has turned out to be a cruel fantasy -- as the average price per barrel is heading towards a record $85 compared with $25 in 2000.

At the UN Security Council last week, the US was a minority of one when it cast the sole veto to protect Israel -- perhaps for the umpteenth time in the history of the world body. The draft resolution, explicitly condemning Israel for its military assault in Gaza and the killings of dozens of civilians, garnered 10 out of 15 votes, even though only nine votes (and no vetoes) are required for adoption.

But the single US veto torpedoed that resolution. The four abstentions came from Denmark, Peru, Slovakia and Britain. The rest of the Security Council members -- including China, Russia and France -- stood by the Palestinians against the Israelis, who are rightly accused of committing war crimes in the occupied territories.

The US stood isolated once again even as President Bush tried to justify Israel's bombing of Lebanon last week when he told reporters: "Israel has a right to defend herself." The US is also caught in a no-win situation because the current government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora in Lebanon, under attack by the Israelis, is also an American ally. ''Whatever Israel does," Bush said, "should not weaken the government in Lebanon." But the last thing the Israelis would do is to heed Bush's advice. At the same time, Bush tried to shift the blame on Syria, accusing the government in Damascus of providing assistance to Hezbollah, a militant Islamic group which is part of the coalition government in Beirut.

The continued American isolation was also obvious in Europe -- judging by the strong statements coming out of France as well as the 25-member European Union. The EU condemned the "disproportionate use of force" by Israelis who unleashed their US-supplied lethal weapons on both military and civilian targets, including the Beirut international airport, the highway linking the Lebanese and Syrian capitals. "The imposition (by Israel) of an air and sea blockade on Lebanon cannot be justified,'' said a EU statement released last week. And all of this Israeli fury was triggered by the kidnapping of two of its soldiers in a Hezbollah military operation, which also killed eight Israeli soldiers.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration is desperately struggling to convince Russia and China, two veto-wielding permanent members of the Security Council, to support a resolution calling for economic and military sanctions on Iran for its civilian nuclear programme.

But that strained effort remains a politically uphill task for the Americans. Both Russia and China have been dragging their feet while keeping their commitments deliberately vague.

Russia, which is hosting the G-8 summit of the world's major political and economic powers in St. Petersburg next week, is playing a diplomatic game giving the impression it will support the Americans -- purely to ensure the success of the summit. Russia obviously does not want the Iranian issue to dominate the summit -- particularly so, if the Russians openly proclaim that they are opposed to sanctions against Iran. "Once the summit meeting is over," the New York Times predicts, "the leverage will be gone". After the summit, the Russians could well take a stand against sanctions -- or quibble over the text of the proposed resolution against Iran. It is all part of the diplomatic cat-and-mouse game that goes on in world capitals.

As the violence in the Middle East threatens to continue, the so-called moderate Arab states, including Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, have been neutralised by the Americans and will not take a military stand against Israel. Both Egypt and Jordan were bribed with billions of dollars of US aid and forced to sign peace treaties with Israel. The Saudis are the largest single buyers of American military equipment -- and depend on the US to turn on the engines of their US-supplied fighter planes.

The Arab street is on the verge of revolting. The US is so unpopular -- primarily for its unshakeable support for Israel and for its blunderous military incursion into Iraq -- that any new Middle East conflagration will likely spark street demonstrations against Arab regimes which are perceived to be manipulated by Washington. The Egyptian government has already warned the news media to show restraint while it has moved to stop any potentially unruly demonstrations.

The Israeli military attacks both on Lebanon and Gaza will also precipitate a resurgence of Arab radicalism in the region.

The US, which has taken on the self-imposed role of spreading democracy in the Middle East, is discovering that multi-party elections are increasingly bringing Islamic militants to power or making them power brokers in coalition governments.

The militant Hamas in Gaza, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the radicals in Iran, either received overwhelming votes or earned influential roles in domestic politics in the aftermath of democratic elections.

The US cannot demand democracy in the Middle East -- and then decide to reject leaders voted into power through the rule of law. If these political and military trends continue, the Bush administration's policy in the Middle East is heading for an unmitigated disaster.